SnowenOutThere

Are we going to start a storm thread for this instead of just posting in the 3-7 day thread? Also the UKMET looks good.

Why is everyone worried about suppression? Every storm this year has had a north trend which causes us to get less snow or ice. Just take the Sunday's storm last week it just kept north shifting and before it did everyone was worried about suppression. The December storm also north shifted and got us shafted which is why I don't know why there are lots of concerns about it. Maybe if it keep going south through today you could. This is not even mentioning that the guidance still looks good, I mean the 00z Euro gives 10 inches of all snow in DC. If anything we need the guidance to shift a bit south today to give us some breathing room when it all north shifts.

I have never experienced a proper ice storm storm or glacier storm that dumps snow then ice without it turning to rain. I have also never been in a low temp ice event and it would be the only way to get a snow day now so... Just kidding though, I would love a snow day and a glacier but I would rather have a foot of snow. If this storm does end up giving us a majority snow event that would be crazy, 3-4(if Sunday happens) moderate to heavy events in 2 weeks. With the pattern the rest of Feb looks good and we seem to have cold air in place for once so I think this thread will be up to seasonal average and maybe even more if we get lucky.

Snow depth on the a plastic lid is around 2'' and a final band just moved through.

Super heavy super wet and huge snowflakes covering the grass now near reston, went from wet to white in 10 minutes. Just nice to see heavy snow with big flakes again.

Hey what is a good radar to use for storms both winter and summer?

The snow hole is right over me.

The NWS map is a very good representation of what we might get from this storm. It forecasts 4-6 area wide which might be on the high end by a bit. Then it forecasts a 9inch boom for the whole which makes sense because we might have some very intense bands. As for the low end it is also I good representation of you being stuck between bands.

So a couple days ago I asked if we might have some thunder snow, most people said not really but with the stronger low and better forcing (from my mediocre knowledge) on the 3km Nam I was wondering if that has changed and we might get some thunder snow.

Wonder how they are going to explain the winter weather watch and if we get the Nam 8 inches of snow.

Its going to be a little fun though sad watching the weather people on TV scrambling to explain how there is a winter storm watch after saying its going to be an amazing weekend yesterday.

The GFS has a high of 4 on the 14th

If this storm does give an area wide 6-10 inches of snow like the NAM model overnight the news will be in some deep mistrust because it is a day before the event and they were forecasting nothing. Would be a little funny seeing everyone wake up on Sunday with heavy snow falling and 5 inches on the ground thinking they were getting nothing.

Yay! The12z Nam is a crowd pleaser with a wide swath of 5-8 for the whole form.

If this event does end up giving us 5-10 inches of snow I would be very concerned. I love snow I want this to happen but there is a good risk of area wide power outages because the snowfall rates will be super high and the snow super wet and thus heavy. This would lead to heavy wet snow falling heavily overnight onto trees that have just recovered from the snow earlier in the week. So if we connect the dots this would mean wide scale power outages which is concerning and something I have not seen discussed. That said I want a foot plus overnight with super heavy rates and big flakes.

Looking at the NAM models and if they come true do you think with the 3 inches of snow per hour rates there could be some thundersnow overnight?

It looks like the Euro brings in colder air after the storm which would make the snow stick longer and is just an interesting feature of the storm that no one is really talking about.

This is every storm in our area.

There was another one where a storm was underforcasted and dropped 2'' of snow and it was in the 20s during rush hour. Because everyone was focused on the 2016 blizzard in two days no one knew about this one and it caused huge traffic jams.

Guys the Euro is on board

Checks out

At least the storm is overnight so there should not be sun problems.

Yay NAM since it is good for us we got to accept the NAM but the second it is bad we say how bad it is. Seriously though the new NAM one is great lets get the Euro on board.

Yoinked this from the southeast thread but it seems to make sense and thought you people would like to see it. I've seen him post about this a few times, but Anthony M has this theory / observation about storm evolution during retrograding -NAO blocks....the first few storms track north (across New England) and feed into the developing block, then the next one or two storms are suppressed events when the block is retrograding (best potential across the South), with the finale being a traditional Mid-Atlantic to New England nor' easter as the block lifts out. The previous retrograding block episode that we just had went down that way. There was a storm across New England on Jan 26...then the Raleigh thundersnow storm on Jan 28, then the traditional nor'easter on Feb 1

I think the GFS trended slightly closer to phasing