SnowenOutThere

Even if that phase it verbatim is close a cad ice storm event, and has another opportunity set up behind it. I do agree that if we want an all snow/frozen outcome that the NS phase wont work but I think a minor event could still happen depending on CAD strength.

Might be setting up something pretty cool way out in fantasy range though

12z Euro seemed pretty close to the 6z Euro Ai solution but a little further north which hurt us

Can't wait for their cancelation tomorrow, its my "hard" class day too!

Ah, so inaccurate thermometers are the new underwater volcanoes.

Definitely fair to say anyone southeast of Fredrick County busted pretty badly even by the more conservative morning NWS predictions.

On the drive back from the catoctins there definitely seemed to be a fall off in snow amounts just past ashburn on I-15, glad you managed to get into that. Personally got to. .75 without the ending bands accounted for yet, hoping to clinch an inch.

On the drive it started snowing well near point of rocks before really ripping from mid Fredrick county onwards, only started sticking when I got to the trail though.

Briefly had some white rain in Reston as a batch of yellows came through even with the temp at 37. Bodes well for when rates improve later today but I’m heading out to the catoctins now.

Thinking I'll go on a hike near the catocotins late morning today to try to ensure no matter what happens in the low lands I'm able to have a nice winters day.

36.9 and light rain near Reston. Can really see the radar beginning to pop, just need the temps to crash…

My ambient weather station has me down to 33.1 which seems suspiciously low.

RGEM finally caving with a further southeast rain snow line.

Seems like I live in nearly the exact same spot you used to, will say what you said about the two snowfall "jumps" still holds up. Despite being right next to Dulles distance wise they always seem to do significantly better in these setups than my backyard. Though I do wonder if that second jump in snowfall will continue to move further northwest over time...

So would you say out by Reston is closer to the 3-6 zone than the 1-3 south of I-66 one your forecast had? Just had a little bit of trouble figuring out where each zone reached from your forecast, but either way its always awesome to have actual mets provide input in these threads!