WXNewton
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Looks like 00z euro ensembles are going to slightly increase snowfall totals over most of the area when compared to 12z. Can't load map right now but definitely looks like a small increase.
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GFS hangs the high pressure up in southern central Canada for days and days and really never pushes south or east, seems odd.
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How many inches does the Dark Blue rep?
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Yeah, especially the AIFS, which almost has Miller A look to it. Looks like several more waves of energy behind the first part on GFS. I would expect some major back and forth the rest of this week to see how the models will key on all that energy and the overall evolution of each piece. I think the key will be where that frontal boundary ends up and if the high can get locked in a little longer in the NE.
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GFS coming in with a nasty ice storm, looks like a prolonged period of freezing rain from roughly N of 40 and I 85.
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Euro, Gfs and Canadian Ens are showing some potential in the Feb 7-11 timeframe.
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Looks like Monday's fast moving system is trending a little snowier along the northern edge on the GFS.
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12z CMC still has a nasty ice storm for the cad region, again timing would have to be perfect high is retreating. Verbatim temps in mid 20s in the heart of the CAD slowly warming to around 31-32 by the end of the storm.
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Yeah was just looking at ensembles, on both GFS and Euro have cold enough air possible on Friday/Sat timeframe with moisture close by. Wedge seems to break down by Sunday as bulk of moisture moves in. I think you definitely hit the nail on the head, it's always about timing and this looks to be a shot where the cold is retreating as moisture moves in. Something to keep an eye on, but I would say the chances have probably decreased for significant ice.
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As a kid, I always remember the 96 ICE Storm (Feb 2nd-3rd) that struck the Catawba Valley area. Without power for almost ten days and lows near zero several mornings after the storm. I still remember listening to the trees pop all night long and then still popping days after. Definitely one of the scariest but also extreme/exciting weather events that peaked my interest in keeping up with the weather. That storm was loaded with moisture, and was a recipe for disaster.
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12z CMC has some ice too.
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Inlaws sent these pictures from Destin FL.
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It was kind of painful, I have to admit.
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Check out this camera at Nags Head, looks like Blizzard conditions. https://www.surfchex.com/cams/nags-head-web-cam-abalone-st/
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Flurries in Newton!
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Flurries in Newton!
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My in-laws go to Florida every year to get away from the cold and snow. They are camp host in Destin at Topsail State Park. I'll post pictures as they send them to me, looks like they ar about to pick up those heavy bands coming out of Louisiana.
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Fv3 is back further north and west this run too.
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Fv3 is back further north and west this run.
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WWA now up to Mecklenburg County and the Lake Norman area, I expect them to be extended even more after 12z guidance.
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HRW WRF-NSSL Way back west too!
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The trend is real on the NAM here is both of them, might even show Catawba County some love if this continues!!
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Throw out your parachute!
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The Euro is going to trend great tonight and give us all hope! I'll delete this in about 30 mins.
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Well at least it can't get much worse than this, cold dry air and nothing to show for it. I am sure we all have lost some valuable sleep so far on this one. As much as I want to go to bed I am going to stay up and watch the Euro one more time. At least it doesn't have to load as much now to break the news to us.
