WXNewton

12z UKMET not there yet but has trended pretty far south with temps the past 3 runs, its more in the GFS/EURO camp.

All of your CAD regions. 2/3 of NC, worst around I85 North and West.

12z RGEM also major ice-storm looks very similar to ICON

12z ICON once again with major ice-storm.

12z NAM looks pretty close to 6z. According to the NAM the High pressure is not really retreating like we've seen in storms before. It basically provides a NE flow for most of the storm, I mean it takes 12-14 hrs to move from NW PA to NH. Actually the high strengthens from a 1033-1037 over this time period. To me a retreating high would be exiting much faster than whats being shown.

Yep noticed this on Saturday's storm, it dried up a lot in the 36-48 hour time-frame and then trended wetter and wetter to play catch-up under 36 hours.

12z HRRR. showing some nasty zr totals along the escarpment tomorrow morning.

We are just now getting into the short range guidance time-frame. I think if runs continue to show this threat and increase the chances today and tomorrow they will change their tune some.

In my opinion it runs colder at the surface than any other model, I would say the NAM did a better job of Saturday's system inside 36 hours.

So now we have the ICON, Canadian, RGEM all showing a prolonged ice storm with the wedge holding in the CAD region for the entire storm. The NAM is still a major storm for many but moisture looks less, GFS is a major ice storm but not as far south as other guidance as well as the EURO. In my opinion models will continue to get a better handle on the wedge as today and tomorrow storm leaves the region. There is a ton of cold air to work with and timing looks to be setting up nicely as the high pressure system slides right into a favorable spot and strengths before the moisture flows into our region. Global models have been trending colder for this storm, but I think the mesoscale models will lead the way starting today and tomorrow. I think the biggest takeaway from this setup would be that all models are in agreement of a 1036-1038 high sitting in a favorable spot that historically produces ice storms in VA, NC and even upstate SC. The ingredients are there for a major ice storm over a greater area compared to Saturday's system.

00z Nam also showing the wedge on Thursday. Not a bad look, 1038ish high over Vermont/NH. Would think temps would be colder than shown in that setup.

18z ICON just laid the smack down for freezing rain on Thursday. Would be a devastating ice storm for many if that model is even remotely close.

Nam showing some Freezing Rain along the Escarpment Tuesday morning.

Looks like a scene out of a movie.

Yep got to 32 even at one point, man the radar looks good, almost has the shape of a snowstorm to it.

00z Canadian has a lot freezing rain this run for much of the state even gets HKY down to 30. Seems a little too cold though.

Already 32.9/31.6 here, I know that's lower than any model had us at this point. Also RGEM really moved freezing rain totals south.

Yeah seeing a lot of temps around freezing already just North of Statesville, a degree or two in this setup could be a huge deal!

Yeah definitely a threat to pay attention to, hopefully Monday's storm will help the trough axis swing more to the east.

That looks like it's going to get nasty! Catawba county getting closer each run. 34.4 here.

Yep 32.6 here in Newton, just not our year.

Nam has freezing rain now all the way into Catawba County.

I wanted to post that GIFs are kind of my specialty, but for some reason all of my files are too large to upload.

18z para trended with more freezing rain for Tuesday storm, actually made a big leap south with ice.