li_wx88

Dumping snow here in Rockville Centre, obviously not sticking to a damn thing.

From the NWS area forecast discussion; "Guidance continues to trend colder with the system with the low track generally near the 40n...70W benchmark. However, global models are in good agreement with a long period of light to occasionally moderate snow through Friday as multiple waves passes to the SE. The NAM remains an outlier with strong frontogenetic banding to the NW of the first low on Thursday with the potential for heavy snow, especially along the coast. It produces liquid equivalent amounts of a half inch at the far NW corner of the Lower Hudson Valley to over an inch across the NYC metro and LI by early Thursday evening. There is also a strong upper jet to the NW of the area. However, in assessing the guidance, the better jet dynamics appear to come in Friday as the RRQ of the upper jet approaches. Additionally, while there is a strong baroclinic zone to the NW of the low track, the low is fairly weak and the best thermal forcing may reside just south of the area. Overall,the NAM seems to be overdone with the lift, but at the same time it has been consistent over the last several runs. Still though, it like the global models has continued to shift to the south with the frontal zone and low tracks. This will have to be watched closely today to see if it falls into the consensus with a longer, drawn out snowfall event. In fact, much of the guidance points to snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches across the area, but over a 24 to 36h period. Warning criteria is 6 inches or more in 12h, or 8 inches or more in 24h. The latter is looking more likely at this time."

I know I know, was just having a bit of fun with it. No hard feelings. Those guys just screwed more often than not.

Have we learned nothing????

Forgot to check that, it is for sure what they're looking at. Good call.

That has to be it, its News12 so huge grain of salt needed but they just mentioned they're sticking with the higher totals for now and not trusting the 6z drier runs yet.

Very surprised that Upton and the local news guys are posting some of the totals that they are given the drier runs especially on the 6z GFS and NAM.

In western nassau here, what is the consensus on LI getting more accumulating snow?

Absolutely dumping in Rockville Centre right now (western Nassau). With that low setting up a bit east of what was expected, curious if that's gona shift that jackpot this way.

By the time most of the island mixes, we will have either cashed in or busted anyway. Anything at that point woulda been relatively marginal anyways.

Beat me to it, I guess the NWS doesn't have access to the RPM model like all the local tv outlets!

News12 is always riding the mix/rain train, not saying it won't happen but think its going to be limited to the forks/montauk.

Curious to see if the NW bump is being a bit overdone at the moment and we see it adjusted in the 12z's

Now stay right there

Curious to hear how that handles a bigger storm, single or two stage?

Remember them all too well! My fingers are crossed for this one, dying to bust out that new Ariens.