winterwarlock

Qpf cut on gfs moving to euro

yup throw the nam out, throw the euro out, throw the eukie out......the thing is the gfs has been on an island the whole time and even with that is showing signs of a cave

yup if people were paying attention to it, it little by little kept introducing mix where as it had one a couple days ago and its spitting out less snow but hey everyone just wants to run with kuchera

listen to yourselves..you want to through the nam and the euro out and run with the gfs

this i think 8-10 a great forecast for a wide swath south of 78, if you want to account for under or over performance a general 6-12 from north central jersey through middlesex ocean monmouth down to philly

they did lower philly and so jersey to 8-12 but honestly that 8-12 should also include southern somerset, middlesex, monmouth and ocean

I guess they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt

hasnt this shown up on a few other models too

when will Mt Holly cave if at all

Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014695227408228416

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

the euro wasnt impressive last night for much of the area....6-10

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less

Define location..im forecasting for central jersey south of 78 newark to nyc and north of trenton

Its going to be ugly post mortem for them and their NBM

Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them

Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro

It will never top the January 94 ? Snow ice pack

Enough I dont have to wait for the Euro Here is Warlock's first call 54 hours out...and being a first call this will change at least once before final call8-12 inches Central Jersey up to Newark/NYC that could see as little as 6 if sleet mix moves in quicker and if sleet is delayed or never materializes we see the 12-14 inch totals10-14 inches N of 78 to Nw NJ. If sleet reaches these areas could cut down to 8. Colder air could make for high ratios and 16 inch amounts in sweet spots6-9 inches monmouth/ocean/philly/south jersey. Could approach 12 inches if warm nose does not materializeCoastal south jersey 3-6.

raises hand

ouch