winterwarlock

Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014695227408228416

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged

the mix line is way north even at that time so additional accumuations are not that much....a difference of 25 miles is huge for me on the nam vs 3k....10-14 vs 4-6

the euro wasnt impressive last night for much of the area....6-10

why does the 3k nam look so different and would end up with way less

Define location..im forecasting for central jersey south of 78 newark to nyc and north of trenton

Its going to be ugly post mortem for them and their NBM

Right but in conjunction with NAM the writing is on the wall for 6-12 tops but Mt Holly seems like the GFS has blackmail material on them

Why is there little discussion of 0z Euro

It will never top the January 94 ? Snow ice pack

Enough I dont have to wait for the Euro Here is Warlock's first call 54 hours out...and being a first call this will change at least once before final call8-12 inches Central Jersey up to Newark/NYC that could see as little as 6 if sleet mix moves in quicker and if sleet is delayed or never materializes we see the 12-14 inch totals10-14 inches N of 78 to Nw NJ. If sleet reaches these areas could cut down to 8. Colder air could make for high ratios and 16 inch amounts in sweet spots6-9 inches monmouth/ocean/philly/south jersey. Could approach 12 inches if warm nose does not materializeCoastal south jersey 3-6.

raises hand

ouch

its spits out 1.3 for central jersey north and 1.7 extreme coast south jersey

really a kick in the balls verbatim from the nam east of the Garden State Parkway

well even as we laugh at the GFS it does matchup with what Mt Holly is forecasting in NJ

Goofus on an island

odd post...most models are showing 6-12 not 12-18

i think its a joke model but that is has backed off and is usually a snow lovers dream may be saying something..its now the least snowiest model out there

why did they have to go 18 inches though...why not 8-14 that seems more appropriate..IMO its because they have fallen in love with the nbm

hearing Lee Goldberg is 6-12 for many but havent seen a map yet

its 6-12 on the map for most of nj...on kuchera its 7-13