winterwarlock

actually its run last night had me flipping at 1 pm and it did exactly...kuchera run gave me a bit over 6 and its more like 8 here so high ratios beat but it certainly didnt do horrible for those central jersey south given it was the first model to sniff the warm nose and introduce sleet all the way back to its 84 hour run a few days ago. The ratios were more of the difference here

yeah the nam nailed the timing...the run from last night had 6 or so on Kuchera so the high ratios overperformed where we might have around 8 instead

90% sleet now at 1pm just like the nam called it

flipped to 90% sleet here just as the nam said it would at 1pm

pingers mixing in now

i must be on the northern side of you...just starting to ping

pingers mixing in 1pm just like the nam said

maybe 7.5 here..heavy snow...sleet is near me per radar

lol thats not happening

the hrrr is off on the sleet...its already sleeting in Hamilton NJ

my friend is near villanova and it went to sleet

the hrrr is already too south with the sleet line by an hour

do you think freezing rain is a threat at all today

flipped to sleet villanova pa

its flipped to sleet near Villanova PA

about 6 here in Belle Mead

yeah maybe in your parts according to hrrr but for me in central jersey starts to get in more like 2

well to be fair modelling didnt have it moving further into NJ til 1

this seems a bit quicker than progged? is there a best radar to track this

about 3 here in Belle Mead NJ

Its all model noise at this point

it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area

Nam will lead the way

. The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow, sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the region. There is an increasing concern that some are

Stop hugging ratios..most models are 6-10 with nam 4-6