Jt17
-
Posts
372 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Jt17
-
this is 18 hours ago before all of the other models hopped way back and GFS has recovered a bit since then fwiw.
-
See you all at 12:47.
-
Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse.
-
Nice!
-
I agree, it's why I haven't given up on something major. Smallest of changes can have a huge impact on how this plays out!
-
Do you have a comparison of the next frame too?
-
It's a little better for sure, but still has a lot of work tho
-
This.
-
Ok now this is something
-
NYC - queens. The heart of the forum. Where the gfs went from .6 to .8 inches of snow. It didn't cave. (Yet). I'm in the camp of the cmc/euro/nam anyway. I just don't get why anybody is pumping up this gfs run lol
-
It's much less than people are making it out to be. I'm surprised. I've been calling out people for overemphasizing negative shifts more than they actually were. I'm going to stick with my laurels even in the opposite direction, because this was a tiny wobble on the GFS. Not a shift.
-
Dude, it's the same lol
-
Looks the same as last run man.
-
I think/hope that's just noise - eventually when it's cleaned up closer to the event it should have a positive impact on how the storm eventually looks
-
It looks VERY similar output wise.
-
So more like NAM 6z
-
Compare it to 18z: can't get much more similar. It basically held steady. Could easily trend a little deeper and west tomorrow. Or not, but it wasn't east trend. Saying that gives the wrong idea to people reading the thread. (Not directed at you, just in general)
-
Checking the snow maps there's perhaps a 10-15 mile east shift for the outer extent of heavy snows. So held pat essentially. It looked more tucked earlier in the run, hopefully that trend continues and pans out a little further up track as a result.
-
It ends up nearly identical to its previous run during showtime - hours 54-69
-
It's already past us at this point. Before anybody freaks out. It's basically identical at hour 63 to the last run.
-
Would be fun to see Euro get back that 06z look from this morning (bet y'all don't even remember what that looks like now. Feels like weeks ago)
-
Snowier than 19.5 for nyc? (Yes this includes ratios)
-
That's at 10-1 too kuchera says the ratios should be super good and actually shift the heaviest axis of snow west. Even if it's not as intense as depicted 12-1/13-1 would still be reasonable
-
Agreed From nothing to 12-18 for nyc on the ukie at 10-1 ratios?
-
This looks like the CMC run that initially got us all excited. Well damn.
