Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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homie, it's a joke - compare the 2 maps side by side. They're very similar.
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I guess it did come west a bit, keeping our all good trends streak alive.
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UKIE on an island by itself
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That's just the snow map from the Nam... you can't fool me.
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I'd like to see the Euro give us one last treat and get rid of the double barrel low before I go to bed lol
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Yep looks pretty much the same totals are a little better, but I feel like with a 970 low and plenty of cold air the output in real time will be higher, time will tell!
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How so? sounds like higher numbers lol
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CMC?
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I think from hours 33-42 while it's struggling with the double barrel low look we're being wiped of what could be a decent amount of QPF to the west. If the west low is consolidated the whole time we get something like... the NAM.
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My message is now being taken out of context. I was responding to somebody about the previous run.
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yea agree - well it essentially folded here. If it gets rid of the double barrel look like the Nam and Euro have essentially done, but keeps that track, it will be an absolute monster for NYC metro
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I just mean the GFS - it's very east still of the other guidance.
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24+++++
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Yea just looking for another tick west at this point, let it cave when the snow is already falling like it often does!
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Pretty west of it's previous run, ya?
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The Kuchera ratios taken verbatim is never a good idea. But when they're really insistent on strong ratios, there's usually a reason. I know a lot of folks take a blend of 10-1 and Kuchera and I think that's generally a good way to look at it. But because of that I think posting both makes sense.
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That's part of why the forum has a chance at decent ratios for a change.
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It's hard to say - this is a very cold storm. We're used to mixing at the coast, etc. with our big storms. That ain't it this time.
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These 2 posts came in, right after the other. Posting 10-1 is just as silly as Kuchera. The ratios will be different all over the map and in a storm this cold almost universally better than 10-1. In parts about Kuchera shows, in others slightly better and others slightly worse. And I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure Kuchera accounts for wind diminishing the effects of ratios. Can people stop acting like they know better than the physics and algorithms of these models?
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Not to be greedy... but another 30-40 mile shift and we could get a foot of snow from western NJ to the tip of Long Island... am I asking for too much?
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Yes w/ratios, but that salmon color is 2 ft and it's brushing up along the outer edges of queens. Just about the width of a boro from 2ft of snow in central park on that NAM run.
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Totally eyeballing it but it seems to scoot the precip field 30-40 miles west and it's more intense overall...
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I'll keep it simple, through hr 24 it's closer to the coast
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When there's 2 clusters with the op running between the two it's certainly informative.
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The winds aren't going to be nearly as intense on the northwest extent of the decent liquid equivalent. There WILL be ratios. People 100% exaggerate the OTHER direction on this too. If you get .8 inches of liquid and 12 inches of snow... just remember you don't get to be happy about it because you didn't get your 1 inch of liquid. (I'm just playing)
