Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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The model outputs with lesser amounts are getting much bigger... .
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It hasn't run yet... And 6z was its best run yet. .
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Oh just you're using ratios. My bad .
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Splitting hairs here but it was actually snowier when I look... .
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6-10 is enough to be considered a big storm to the public, so if they keep adjusting upward to game time it doesn't look too bad, but it also gives them room to say we never bought those crazy model runs would verify if the storm ends up like the Euro. .
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Then there going with Euro OP lol - guess old habits diehard .
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Yes what I meant. Sorry lol .
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This entire suite stood pat or even trended a little further west. Only Exception was euro OP. .
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Euro is 75 miles west of its AI brother and 100 miles west of the other guidance. On its own. I'd be more worried if it was the AI on its own. .
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Kept going quite a bit after this too and got a few more inches .
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Big west shift from 12z. Doubled output. 1 more tick from lining up with GFS and NAM .
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At 10-1 it went from 23.1 to 22.8 in nyc and the heaviest shifted closer to the city. Kuchera have some friendly ratios at 18z and that map was prob what he saw. .
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Lmao epic .
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And north! .
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There was more support than just American models was my point. But anyway, checkout EuroAI! .
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Show that to the guy who wanted one non-US model to show an amped solution. .
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Maybe western NJ. .
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The lowest output is the Euro OP with 7 inches lol .
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Exactly. .
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Been there for many runs now. Cave to what exactly? Every model and ensemble is more similar to GFS now except Euro OP. .
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lol he wrote that and then 5 min later somebody posted 6z AI EPS and it was 75 miles north west and doubled the qpf for the whole area. Love to see it. .
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.9 before to .5 on this run I mean. I know it's just a 1 off solution and could just be a wobble with many more runs to go, so don't come at me. lol .
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Not trying to be a wet blanket but .9-.5 for nyc would be a bummer. Although I do like the Euro AI doesn't believe in the hitting a brick wall and exiting left. More uniform output from north to south. .
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It's about 30 miles north too. Need that 2x more. .
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Not what he meant. He's just saying cmc isn't quite there. .
