Jt17

It really was a minor diff in output. But the look was def worse on the surface. Hopefully the double barrel low eventually becomes western dominant again - If not, the Euro would be a nice cold snow storm for the city and a pretty big storm further east.

This run from the RAP just now is what we need regarding the double low. It emphasizes the west low and as a result it's broader and slightly west with heavy precip (run only goes to hour 21, so a number of hours of snow left after this run), it really doesn't need a shift east or west it needs to either consolidate the lows or at least emphasize the western one and we should be in for a good surprise tomorrow.

It really isn't the track, now the qpf is being reduced by the sheered out double low look and while there was always a double low look on every run it was favoring the western one and now it's favoring the eastern one.

I hear you, but my point is it didn't just go back to earlier presentations. It gave a completely new look that was much more strung out and worse. Its output was as low as the latest GFS. This late in the game I find it hard to ignore, but I don't deny there's a possibility it will wobble back somewhere to the 0z look (which looks like the latest euro)

Euro is now the best look of any model besides the SREF plumes. Would sign up for a euro 6z look in a heartbeat.

It's worse than it's 0z run too tho, and worse than the 6z euro run. It's a fairly dramatic change, especially since it seemed to be leading the way on resolving the double low into one. And then it just went full on double low

It went with the double low look - that's the difference. If the double low look gets resolved and becomes one expect a lot of surprised people come Saturday night. If this is the actual look then we end up with a nice storm, but nothing crazy like the previous 2 NAM runs.

1.25-1.5 over nyc nice

If it holds serve I have a feeling we might start to see some of the other models start to follow suite and reduce the double barrel look and go a bit more west like the Nam. Would make a huge difference for city and N&W

Next Nam run is at 8:30 or 9:30?

Only thing I'll say is Euro keeps trending towards the NAM each run. Euro 6z now looks like NAM 0z (the run that got us weenies pumped)

Had this one queued up didn't ya

this snow map now looks like the 12z NAM run that got everybody excited. In fact I believe it's slightly more. Nam reduced the double low look on 6z and we got the jackpot over NYC... hopefully the Euro keeps correcting towards the NAM from here on out.

It's called levity. Try it ya weirdo.

Have ya seen the regular Nam? NYC and NJ disappear for years under those totals.

Isn't this the type of feature mesoscale models are supposed to figure out better than the global models?

I agree with most of your points, however the NAM and Euro are more similar than you're remembering: NAM: Euro: It takes VERY little to change the totals significantly still. NYC could very well see 8 inches or 20 inches with small 20 mile shifts. And they'd totally be reasonable. That's what makes these storms so hard to predict. And as always banding does whatever the heck it wants. I'm 27 miles west of Brentwood in Queens for perspective. On the NAM output that puts the border of queens almost at 2 feet and the Euro at about 18 inches.

0z at Hour 30: almost looks like it consolidates the double lows entirely to the west and it's pretty close to the coast... Compared to 18z at same time: But because it doesn't fully consolidate, at hour 33 on 0z it jumps east about 30-40 miles. How far is nyc out from the bullseye... just saying

Kuchera:

Long Island disappears in a cloud of snow

Better, less double barrel focus and it mainly chooses the left LP path. Precip field as depicted on pivot seems smaller, but the intense stuff goes out further, I.e I think a sharper cutoff

Head west young man, head west! (Just a little)

True... lots of blizzard warnings in the upper midwest and great plains happen without snow falling from the sky.

Euro, Nam, RGEM, CMC... all have decent chunk more than 8 inches falling in nassau county.

All good, model mayhem and all