Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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I-95 weenies would rejoice
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Powerful and slow moving it appears to me...
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Would be a nice way to finish the day with GFS clearly trending towards euro - potential storm is in the 4/5 day range - they should start to converge.
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Sigh, verbatim that's a simple lovely cold snowstorm that literally makes everybody happy. Only 5 days away, so these runs start to have some merit to them. Hopefully GFS starts to trend towards the Euro!
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00z suite including Euro have storm again for Saturday, Euro just misses with something nice
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00z GFS looks like it lost the Sunday Night/Monday solution, but brought back the Friday Night/Saturday idea with a close(ish) miss to the SE
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CMC looks a lot like the GFS 6 hours ago. At least that energy is out there lurking or hitting on all of the models. Something possibly exciting to keep an eye on.
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Looks like 20+ hours of snow
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Lol at gfs next weekend
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One way too look at it, but also every model has a LP system pop off the coast next weekend with the Canadian having it in the nicest position before heading out to see. With the NW trends we keep seeing it's probably best it's showing up, but heading out for sea on every model right now lol
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Next weekend?
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GFS op just moved quite a bit east from what I can tell on my phone. Actually has the low off the coast of Jersey now.
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Is there any rhyme or reason why the seemingly weaker low pressure tugs the more intense low pressure west on the GFS the last few runs into PA. Seems like the last GFS ensemble was hinting that it was an exaggerated scenario...?
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It's actually kind of refreshing to have some unbridled joy for a change
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Definitely looks like the GFS and the GEFS trended towards a better solution for snow. GEFS says that crazy hard phase that brought the low into PA was way exaggerated, hopefully it's onto something!
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At 102 to 105 the low just dives hard inland, it looked more promising up until then though.
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The 850 freezing line was pretty far from the area which is why I said that, but thanks for the heads up. I don't want to be badly mistaken again. Gee no wonder these forums are so dead compared to the old days.
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To my untrained eye this looks like the euro ensemble is taking a similar track to what it had at 00z? And based on the 850 temps at this frame it would actually be snowing at hour 120. Perhaps there's some hope the OP models have completed their west trend and might wiggle back east a bit. Still too early to give up on that possibility IMO.
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GFS, GEM and Euro all have a deep low pressure system off the coast on Monday with the GFS crushing the area, the GEM not too far off and the Euro heading out to sea. Something fun to keep an eye on at least...
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GEM has a similarly intense bomb for the 17th, but a couple 100 miles further off the coast than the GFS run. Let's hope a similarly intense storm is still showing up on the models around Thursday. Would be exciting to track a real ol' fashion nor'easter
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Pretty sure eduggs is right. LGA broke the record I believe for snow ratios in a storm of a certain size with like 25/1 ratios with them getting over 9" of snow, but only .4"ish liquid. Wouldn't make sense for JFK a few miles away to be the polar opposite situation. (I live about a mile from LGA so I can report that there was a shocking amount of snow compared to the 3-5 inch forecast, which would have usually lined up better with the liquid precip)
