Jt17

Lol I deleted my comment cuz you beat me to it. Def happy with some of the progress on the models today

Hopefully the GEFS shifts even further west and we get an idea of who is following who exactly...

Well the CFS moved 600 miles west, so lock it in boys and girls. (What is the CFS anyway?)

GFS from yesterday too:

Was wondering why there were 25 posts since I checked on the GFS run 45 min ago lol

Well now it's 6.5 days out so we should be good

Sure, but it looks a lot like some runs yesterday and last night. Which is why when this inevitably looks worse on some future runs, people shouldn't get all out of sorts that the storm is dead like they did at 12z

Exactly, nobody realistically thinks the odds are in favor of a major storm hitting that's shown on the models 7+ days in advance, but if it's there it's worth having on the radar and discussing a bit. This is a winter weather thread after all.

00z no longer an inland runner at least and also sub 970 low like GFS - nice signal 7.5 days out

969 just after passing the benchmark, would be pretty wild... only 8 days away, LOCK IT IN lolz

maybe the OP... but that GEFS spread MJO812 just posted is pretty wild with lots of strong solutions

I think he means the model run, though if he's referring to the storm 9/10 days away, it doesn't dig moisture from the gulf like the gfs, but it does have a low off the coast at the same time as the gfs and Canadian. Maybe in 3-4 days we can start the emotional roller coaster all over again in a new storm thread

Reverse psychology; nice! Might just work lol

Lol one storm like that would easily save the entire winter

00z looked like a HECS and the other 2 SECS was what I was saying. You can go back and look at them if you want. Let's leave the "look, have a party" comments out please. I'm not hear to argue. Just pointing out that I saw some consistency from the Euro as did others and it wasn't just a 1 run thing. That's all.

CMC shows the type of movement we'll need moving forward to get a storm depicted for the area on the models again: CMC 12z: CMC 00z:

Well, you are wrong about it being too far east on that run and no, there were 3 runs in a row that had a HECS or at least very SEC level storm 00z, Mon 00z, Mon 12z, and Tues 00z all had 12+ inches at 10-1 ratios for NYC and likely underdone considering there wasn't too much wind associated and it was quite cold. So that consistency led me and others to develop a fair amount of interest in this time period. And then the entire model suite started to trend towards this solution. Just because it stopped trending that way and the Euro trended away from the coast a bit since, doesn't mean people were jumping on a bandwagon. They were just observing and commenting. You're just using a misrepresentation of the evolution of what actually happened on the models to prove some point that frankly doesn't need to be made. We get it, some people are pessimists and some people are optimists, but what you certainly are not is on the "correct" side of things. It's modeling worth discussing. That's it.

Gfs 24 hours ago: gfs now: I'm not very confident in a storm, but I am confident that we're over blowing the run to run changes. Look at it a day at a time imo for now

For awhile now? The Euro was HECs at 00z - I think your comment shows people are just as inclined to over-emphasize the negative as people are to wish for snow. While the odds aren't in favor of a big snowstorm this weekend. It's still a relatively reasonable outcome, so something to continue and monitor, not be doom and gloom about.

I'm sure it isn't very good, but after a few years of not checking weather models, I'm now back and don't really know anything about the ICON. But it looks to be one model that took a pretty big positive step for the potential Saturday storm. Moved quite a bit west.

Thank you! To my untrained eye it seems like there's just a chaotic amount of energy and it's far enough out from now that all of the models are all handling it slightly differently. With so much going on expecting model convergence this early in the game doesn't seem reasonable!

GEFS looks to have made another tick towards Euro, ways to go, but still a little progress.

Compared to the same time yesterday the models have moved MARKEDLY closer to the Euro solution. Just because they've had 2 runs where the progress has stalled on most models (and apparently gone back on the CMC), doesn't mean anything is done trending in one way or another. There's still enough lead time for substantial changes

Hope the trends continue towards the euro