Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Hmmm I don't think so man. I think the fact that you can't see the rest of the run is skewing your perspective
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Rolling
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It's WAY west than 0z, no? - everybody got so fixated on the bad gfs runs that they didn't realize this went from amazing for nyc area to terrible, now it's only another 75-100 mile shift from an epic solution.
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Nice trend back
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06z GEFS had a decent western cohert developing again compared to 00z, even though the op was a mess. A lot of time for changes in any direction.
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This is just the ensemble mean too. Op would be way more like 00z
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At hr 117 Icon doesn't look too different than the last run and then it jumps like 400 miles due east, only to come back later, looks fishy (pun slightly intended)
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And with 18z there isn't that much to even examine. Really the only sort of dramatic shifts were the GFS, Euro largely the same, some lesser models like Icon for example trended west, etc. really not much has happened today lol, just 1000s of anxiety filled messages across a few subforums.
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I still don't agree, I'm not seeing that.
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EPS shifted east? Says who. Doesn't look like it to me.
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Not the definition of insanity
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Wow I'm so proud of the lack of freaking out in here! Well done forum
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It's more about it's track then it getting going too late, but as others have said, it's in a good spot, especially since the Euro tends to trend west late in the game.
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CMC/GFSish track with the Euro's intensity would be amazing. Nice trend on the Euro though
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lol 2 ft for the NYC metro area and north - a boy can dream
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Yes but it's west of the last Ukie run
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Agreed, I think NYC metros best chance for HECs more depends on a deeper low developing like some of the guidance has hinted at.
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So far it's been leading the way
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Yep, I wouldn't be surprised to see a decent number of ensemble members to show something like that. Lots of sub-970 lows popping up on the ensembles
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Let's see what tomorrow brings!
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Euro trending towards CMC now: 12z:
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This run: Last run:
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Ukie 50mb deeper this run around our latitude and decently west compared to the last run. Still looks pretty far out, but the trend is our friend...
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I'd say that's the right direction!
