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Everything posted by Juturna
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Windy AF on the Island tonight
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Now I just need some Suffolk county thunder snow at some point and I'll be all set.
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Time for people to jump off the ledge again. Could be bad data, initialization, the double barrel making it chase the more east low which may not even exist. It's nowcast/shortrange time and let the pieces fall where they may. The run to run swings are just not healthy lol, take a blend.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
Juturna replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
No flakes yet in Port Jefferson. -
Not sure what to look at to determine this so I'll defer to the knowledgeable posters ...what are the chances of some thunder snow with this system on LI?
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They said they were waiting for one more model round for consistency to do blizz warnings. " In addition, have elected to hold off on any blizzardh eadlines at this time for eastern LI and southern CT, the area that are most likely to meet blizzard criteria. Given the increased forecast confidence in only these latest runs, would prefer one more cycle for that upgrade. Regardless, near blizzard conditions are possible for eastern LI and southern CT for a period on Saturday afternoon with this system."
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Man I remember yesterday when the Debbie downers threw in the towel...
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Working 7am to 6pm Saturday. But if it's cancelled for snow I get paid anyhow. Praying to the weenie gods here in central Suffolk. My luck, we do get the storm but they don't cancel and I'm snowed in an empty school in Port Jeff for the weekend.
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So under the assumption that this does occur...is there any sort of consensus on a start time for the metro/LI area? Seems like it is coming in quicker and leaving quicker than it appeared early in the week.
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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event
Juturna replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
What do you think the timeline is for snow to begin/will be heaviest in the metro area? -
Obs and nowcast Super Bowl Sunday 4A-6P Feb 7, 2021
Juturna replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Finally down to freezing in Holtsville -
Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event
Juturna replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
That's not the mega band, that won't even be around till tomorrow. -
Still virga here in Holbrook, Long Island
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Hey someone from my neck of the woods! What's you're feeling for us?
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I feel like they always come in earlier and leave earlier.
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I just don't see the mixing being an issue until after the heaviest amounts have moved through. I expect some freezing drizzle to glaze the snow that fell. But what do I know
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I don't mind a little rain on top of the snow pack making it more of a bitch to clean up. I'm trying to get off work Monday and Tuesday
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NWS Upton not buying into the warmer NAM from earlier.
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On the whole, we are a lot more "doom and gloom" compared to the other subforums. Comes with the territory of weather abuse we've gone through. Just need to keep a level head as best as possible. The runs earlier today just seemed a little TOO north, and I'll be glad if that ends up being the case.
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Should be a nice storm for most. And after the drought we had, its a great storm, really.
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Well that is from two hours ago, so probably will come down later.
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You're not wrong. A snow day would be much appreciated, even if there ends up not being any snow IMBY (not that snow days truly exist with virtual teaching being an option now), still, one day not having to be around Covid kids is a bonus.
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I'll wait for some consistency before jumping the ledge after one run.
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