NAM looks good for roughly 78N (although with a couple different waves of precip, some in S/C Jersey could get similar totals), think 3-5" for most in N NJ outside of 5-7" in NW Jersey and S NY State
When Kuchera is 6-10", 6-10" it is (assuming output is right to begin with), and warm ground, marginal airmass, sun angle, etc. (just as always is outside of the pavement in Times Square) is overrated.