Northof78
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December 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
Northof78 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
Keep an eye on that one...interesting -
December 16-17, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast
Northof78 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
EWR 11" NYC 10" Official Latest Numbers (should be close, if not final) not too shabby for mid Dec...- 1,011 replies
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Bernie Rayno all/mostly all snow NYC, dewpoints and airmass people...
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model time essentially done, very cold/dry air locked in place, storm coming up coast...enjoy all!
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Dew points in low and mid single digits across the region....impressive airmass and very important.
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Seems to be growing trend of snow or rain, very little mix/sleet area...thusly the very tight gradient
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Maybe and hour or so of sleet/mix in the city, rest is snow...on what used to be the warmest/west model...excellent trend for the model over past 3-4 runs.
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Most models now seem to be honing in on another band/max precip axis in NE NJ/NYC/W LI
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Wow on the NAM...actually looks like N NJ and NYC in one of the better zones overall again....further S/E and colder...1.5”+ LE for most...
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WSW for 12" - 16" for W Essex...not bad, WSW for 12" - 20" for N/C NJ in Somerset County....45mph gusts....near blizzard conditions.
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Wow, NAM....100% better....the warmest model now gives NE NJ/NYC 8" - 13"...
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So all 12z Models for NE NJ/NYC: NAM: 7" - 11" RGEM: 8" - 12" UKIE: 9" - 13" GFS: 11" - 16" EURO: 12" -16" Tell me again, why are people upset?!
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So far for NE NJ/NYC: NAM: 7" - 10" RGEM: 9" - 12" GFS: 12" - 18" Not too shabby....
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GFS really nice for the metro, probably 12" - 18" for most...
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Is that the warmest panel?
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Agreed, extremely similar to this storm with a ~ 30-50 mile shift north...
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Any mixing issues seem to be due to progged dryslot, lack of lift, very light precip...not overall warming
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NAM quite cold, still odd precip shield, but 850s dont get above 0F down to Toms River area...and I have to say with this strong of a block/confluence, the heaviest precip that far from the low seens suspect to me
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Not much to speak of N of the NJ/NY line...even north of Rt.80 QPF drops off quickly...
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RGEM actually has all of LI over a foot, just a weird dry slot over the city...
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1.5” to 2.0” for most of the region....
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Looks like 12” to 18” area wide...
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850s at -6 or -7, maybe somewhere you can get some sleet from intensity...but overall hell of a run
