Northof78
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Posts
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About Northof78
- Birthday 06/14/1979
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2" on the ground, now sleet -
GFS a really nice thump before any possible turnover to sleet
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NWS going with 3-5" for southern 1/3 of region and 5" - 7" for northern 2/3...reasonable with some upside potential (NAM)
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Close to 1" QPF for N/C NJ and 0.75" for almost all of the region, close to 100% snow for Rt.80 N and 75% snow Rt.78 N, this verbatim is very impactful storm with warning levels
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NAM through hour 33, all snow north of TTN....4-8"
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Yup, the GFS type thump and go of 3-5" for the area is very possible, with material snow falling in 4-5 hours
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Around 5" (70 snow/30 sleet)
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Final Forecast: NYC/EWR- 3.0" (about 50/50 snow-sleet) SMQ- 3.5" (about 50/50 snow-sleet) MMU- 4.5" (about 70/30 snow/sleet) HPN- 5.5" (about 80/20 snow sleet) There is 1"-2"upside potential to these numbers depending on how different waves interact, thump timing, cold intrusion (now occuring), etc. with little downside potential from these totals.
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Looks like NWS New York right on with general 3-6" around the metro so far with some sleet as well given all morning guidance.
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NAM looks good for roughly 78N (although with a couple different waves of precip, some in S/C Jersey could get similar totals), think 3-5" for most in N NJ outside of 5-7" in NW Jersey and S NY State
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16" (52% of average), about 17 days of snow cover, well above normal temps, no big storms, nothing in Dec, if it ends here...D+
