UKMET is definitely less amped than 12z (which was the furthest north and west, so that might not mean much). Also seeing the PV significantly south of 12z at 81.
GFS is still pretty progressive, dry, and fast. The jackpot of 6-10" is from Richmond to the southern Delmarva. Looks like it's slightly better than the last run for Hampton Roads.
We aren't really losing the big storms, just the light and moderate ones. That seems like the real problem. There have been much larger intervals without an 18"+ or 12"+ storm.
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr