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Ephesians2

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  1. Ephesians2
    wasn't that what the GFS was doing to this weekend's storm at this range?
  2. Ephesians2
    but if the GFS is right, it'll be "suppressed" (good for me), not flip to rain, which is what you said if I recall correctly
  3. Ephesians2
    https://x.com/ManleyWeather/status/1876247084225183825
  4. Ephesians2
    City of Lynchburg, VA 01/05/2025 - 2.5" snow + sleet
  5. Ephesians2
    Temps at 30-31 and heavy precip limited ice accretion overnight - probably about 0.25" of ZR on top of what was (prior to compaction) more or less 3" of snow and sleet. Looks pretty though.
  6. Ephesians2
    Cleared off the snow board -- 2.25" in Lynchburg before the flip to sleet. It'll be interesting to see how much pure sleet I get overnight.
  7. Ephesians2
    Does anyone have total sleet and freezing rain maps for the HRRR?
  8. Ephesians2
    Flipped to sleet in Lynchburg. Some of the short range models are showing two inches of sleet here.
  9. Ephesians2
    mixing with sleet under lighter returns but still 50/50 snow/sleet.
  10. Ephesians2
    Rates and flake size picking up in Lynchburg. About 2" on the ground.
  11. Ephesians2
    I like the West to East trajectory of this band for Central VA. It's not super heavy - but accumulating nicely. 1.3" in Lynchburg.
  12. Ephesians2
  13. Ephesians2
    Just measured 0.75" in Lynchburg. Steady light/moderate snow with decent size flakes.
  14. Ephesians2
    After a couple hours of virga and flurries, light snow has begun in Lynchburg.
  15. Ephesians2
    Webcams from SW/Southside VA: https://www.wsls.com/weather/skycams/ Snow already accumulating in Martinsville and Blacksburg.
  16. Ephesians2
    Purely anecdotal, but ... my fiancée says it's snowing lightly in Winston-Salem, NC. Was supposed to be all rain for them.
  17. Ephesians2
    Initial wave of precipitation looks heavier and further south than modeled - moving due west to east. From a Roanoke/Lynchburg page:
  18. Ephesians2
  19. Ephesians2
    RNK's map had you starting at 3-5 and me at 5-7. Looks like precip is moving in more quickly than anticipated.
  20. Ephesians2
    37/7 in Lynchburg. Clouds thickening to the West.
  21. Ephesians2
    Huge divergence between NAM and HRRR QPF for Central VA. NAM cut QPF in half versus its last run.
  22. Ephesians2
    RGEM ticks to the south and bumps up QPF - 11.1" at RIC on Kuchera. It's a tight gradient just south of there though.
  23. Ephesians2
    NAM was showing basically nothing 24 hours ago, right? Also, from what I've heard it tends to have a north bias. I think it's an improvement and definitely better than where we thought it be going a couple of days ago. 2-4" with some sleet and ZR will stick around a while with the advertised temperatures. I got 4" with the second Jan 2022 storm, including an inch of sleet, and it stuck around for two weeks with warmer temperatures than what we are seeing on models.
  24. Ephesians2
    Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. https://www.stmweather.com/blog/current-events/winter-storm-january-11-13-2019
  25. Ephesians2
    I was in Fredericksburg for Jan 2022 and got 15". Other than that, the only 10"+ storm I remember clearly is the 2016 blizzard. I have very vague glimpses of the 2009-2010 winter despite being 7 years old then, because I was a weather nerd, my parents got me a 3-year weather observation book for my 7th birthday
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