Ephesians2

Well, to be fair, he's right that a warm October doesn't necessarily mean a warm winter in the east. October 2011 was cold, while October 2010, 2013, 2014 were above average. November is more correlated in my understanding.

DCA +4.3 NYC +3.8 BOS +3.5 ORD: +5.4 ATL: +4.0 IAH: +3.6 DEN: +1.0 PHX: +1.3 SEA: -0.5

I could see it being a -EPO / -PNA / southeast ridge kind of winter with a few brief but relatively intense cold shots but overall warmer than last year. I've heard that the North Atlantic anomalies signal a +NAO, but if we get some transient blocking in January or even March, we could luck into something. 2021-22 was mostly like that except for Jan and we had chances. I don't even think there was much blocking that year. If we had had Dec 2022 later on, it also could have produced. Something like 2017-2018 or last year is probably the best case scenario. (I'm using 1981-2010 anomalies in this image on purpose. It's just so hard to get a legitimately cold winter now. Even this September is likely going to end up above normal here.)

First 80 degree day of the year.

B. Ended up with about average snowfall but more than any winter since 2018-2019. Never got a direct hit from any storm - either slightly too far north (Jan 6, Feb 13, two warning level ice events) or too far south (Jan 11, Feb 19-20) but in return, there were 4 or 5 notable snow events and snow cover for most of January.

A lot of Nino years in the analogs... interesting. https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1894541347563913353/photo/1

19:1 ratios

2/20/2025 - 1.0" Total: 11.4"

If we lived in a colder climate we'd just be complaining about April.

2/19/2025 - 1.4" Total: 10.4"

Light snow since around 7... total of 1.4" with the back edge approaching.

Might be wishful thinking, but this was posted in the SE forum:

GFS out to 27... still early but looks like a SLIGHTLY healthier storm Update: out to 39 - tiny tick north and looks a bit more consolidated, wetter, otherwise very similar to 06z

Still some to come at this point.

It's way out of range, but the HRRR seems dry and south.

3k NAM is also very amped.

NAM holding the line.

The Canadian seems basically unchanged at 54

ICON is wetter and slightly north. Not a huge change, but it looks like the bleeding has hopefully stopped

**Storm isn't over at this point

Well... the ICON is definitely a tick north and a healthier precip field at 54

That pattern doesn't look that warm to me - could be wrong though. It looks like a neutral PNA and negative EPO. Also, the temp departures are near normal for early March on the GEFS.

UKMET is a total miss... barely clips southern Hampton Roads... nothing anywhere else.