IowaStorm05

Moderate if you’re in Truckee California hehe

But the RDPS crushes

Could be off but if anything it adds “mental insurance” against a Ptype issue on the coastal plain of SNE

It’s raining

I’m even more interested in upcoming GFS and others. NAM not yet inside 48hr for SNE. Yet 12z NAM is more forgiving for coastal plain than its 06 predecessor.

And 1998 was precisely the first year I started reading the forecast discussion. “ETA”. And the site was the shape of a map of the state and it had “Iwin.whatever”. I was in middle school. It WAS on a compaq presario!!!!!

My reaction to GFS changes

Do people like the Canadian anymore?

Not very long, I have a lot more time spent living near i95 in CT or RI

Yes but I’m not in school I’m disabled.

I’m telling you that sh*t creeps me out even though I’m 30 miles inland now and it has happened more often in my memory than ticks south.

And since sampling is going to happen overnight or tomorrow It stands to reason that if any substantial changes occur in the forecast of this storm, they’d be more likely to show up overnight tonight with the 00 Zulu runs? Or later than that?

The Monday night CT deal not looking so great anymore

Not only that it deviates even further I have the queer mental twist that it’s action now provides some kind of bad insurance against the likelihood of a sweaty south coast

I have on multiple occasions seen early indication 3-4 days out of blockbuster snow on the coast and cape, then as we get down to 2 days out it turns out a mix of rain and snow along 95. A Valentine’s Day 2007 storm was an infuriating example of this. All my roommates cared about was the price of the new PlayStation 3. We ended up with a thin veneer of crusty ice with that air pocket under it.... IE quasi freezing rain. Another was an early 2002 storm that promised 2-4 inches of snow on south coast. It never changed over to snow. Granted, I feel like there must have been some improvements to forecasting since 2007?

Long ways indeed, though the degree of model consistency at this point is noteworthy in my view.... but yeah. Things bad could happen to it

I generally disappear from here in the summer, except for a few cumulonimbus or lightning posts when I lived in Iowa

I have witnessed over the years a lot of coastal storms trending too far south a few days out. They tick nw until the cities are in rain, especially I-95.

And the 12z Canadian is holding steady for us

After years of watching and following my less-than-pro opinion is that I feel like this would tick north because of the larger scale pattern at hand. Of course I think that!!!! Because I’m in Central CT

Big happenings in my former home, Des Moines!!

I feel like, and have seen some climate related articles and maps, that we are far enough in the bag of global warming that it has really started showing results in places like coastal mid Atlantic and southern New England over the last decade or two, but especially recently. one report I saw in recent years indicated the coastal plains have been more strongly affected by global warming than interior or continental locations, if you believe in that. I’m no expert but I am just reporting my observation What’s behind it or where it’s headed in terms of centuries or long term global climate is not my forte, but I’m talkin’ in terms of current decade type trends at the very least

I feel like too many people forgot about the great blizzard of 2005. That’s the one storm I know of that competes with the blizzard of ‘78. I’m 36 years old; it’s the biggest storm of my entire life. I was a “dandy” 20 year old, I spent it with lots of friends and we had one of those gallon jugs of table wine for it! I was in Providence, and we got roughly 3 feet.

That 12/5-12/7 was definitely a memorable couple of hits for SNE. what happened in the few weeks following? Basically those snows were followed up by a change to rain and milder pattern, however I recall that the snowy coastal deal returned nicely once we entered 2004.

Yes negative NAO IMO is a really big deal I think. It’s not strong rn but it’s way way better to be in this pattern looking ahead than November/December 2006. That autumn was the WORST!