IowaStorm05

Needless to say kind of an interesting pattern developing.

I notice Accuweather just posted their blurb about the holiday weekend. They’re taking a relatively warm assumption and it looks uncannily just like yesterday was for us. Off with their heads jk

I would imagine the East coast of SNE has much more in the way of erratic ptype line with some storms than the south coast. That’s my guess. But I really haven’t spent much time in Massachusetts, cape, Boston or whatever. Not that I don’t like that, it’s just that my family and I always end up in CT or RI. Providence is sort of a transition area between south coast effect and east coast effect. i am much more familiar with the south coast. In any case, storms tend to start as snow then turn to rain. The flip back to snow isn’t that frequent in my memory. I know of areas that are the opposite where it always starts as rain and turns to snow… mostly because it’s a cold front thing. No matter where I live, I’ve had issues with cold front rain to snow transitions always taking longer than advertised especially back in the day. Just when it finally changes over it is coming to an end and it’s too late for accumulation. This effect is why leeside foothills out west can receive multiples of snow compared to the east side of the valley just a few miles to the east. And more than once I have purposely relocated myself to some cabin in those hills just to get the best of that. i can’t afford to do that anymore.

I just cut to the chase and told my family there’s a 30 per cent chance of snow on Christmas.

Does this have anything to do with me almost getting struck by lighting while enjoying a strong thunderstorm outside in a parking lot in 2016?

Everybody knows that. But I was only half serious

People get killed in major winter storms. Which means we are actually rooting for the deaths of people. Actually, this sort of bothered me out west when I was just a teenager. Lots of places for people to get stuck far from civilization before the ubiquity of cellphones and GPS. Lots of curvy cliffy roads for vehicles to slide off of.

You know what then your right. What I was thinking of is that they didn’t issue climatic forecast discussion for the weekend 8-14 or 6-10 ones. That’s it’s. you only got a discussion m-f

Dude, I want you to be a part of our group and talk about weather but you are shooting your self in the foot if you troll people. If in doubt, try mixing your contributions to positives about the weather, not just negatives. Like, I will find things to try and bring a positive spin on the pattern or find hope for pattern changes in the future. I don’t know most of your posts in the past but it’s clear you’re managing to get on peoples nerves today. Youre not bothering me but I’m not going to stand here and watch you alienate yourself from people who share your interests. I won’t stand for it.

I don’t know why Typhoon Tip’s the idea of a skinny little finger-looking trough curling down the Cali coast, turning E and bringing mud slides to those steep mountains just east of the San Fernando Valley is so funny. But it just sounded weird and funny. I envision an arm/tentacle of an octopus unrolling down to Cali. It all comes together for me. Unless we’re talking about a closed off low. Then it’s like a bowing ball. i happen to have lived in the valley in my 20s and did a bunch of modeling and other unmentionable versions of winter weather that bring complications to your sinuses. Never again. Mud slides aren’t funny because people do get buried by them. but I digress. Good water years are hard to come by out west. someone asked why rain instead of snow is a problem for them but very recently the DRI made it clear that snow, not rain, is the store of water for the west.

No. In fact back in my day, like the 2000s they never generated these maps on the weekend. does that mean it’s bad?

For what it’s worth…. A bit post Xmas but you know

This was a thing in December 2005 when a tail or “comma” drudged across CT, at least near the coast and dumped a bunch of graupel and thunder banged. i don’t suppose this system is that similar.

I disagree entirely. It’s completely a possibility. These locations struggle profoundly some years to manage a few inches over the season. You’re absolutely kidding yourself if you don’t see that as a possibility. I never even said it would happen all the time. But it could easily happen at some point at least! I know my own kind of people here. People get defensive if something is suggested they don’t like. Nobody knows when exactly a local climate might be twisted enough to end up not getting significant snow all winter during a random and rogue year. But I would bet money at some point in the next century that’s gonna happen somewhere in the cape and islands.

It doesn’t matter if someone will be dead when they predict something. It’s not even a relevant factor. Warmer periods have happened in the past, tree ring studies showed that in the Middle Ages, the Sierra Nevada was much much warmer than it is even today. It doesn’t matter that I was also dead then, or rather, unborn. Scientists have suggested, with pretty good evidence and reason, that future decades will be significantly warmer the only reason anybody heckles them is if it’s a political thing. And that IS stupid.

I know. But I don’t feel. And people make their decisions by the heart. I’ve “known” that accumulating snow was quite unlikely by this morning. But I always come back in the hopes of a sudden change of pattern. The hopes of a major overperforming event which tracks 40 miles south of where modeled. Shit like that happened all the time in 1996 and one time in Reno we got 8-16 inches of snow on a day in which the forecast said “a chance of showers”. i get it. It’s not 1996 anymore.

It’s going to be easier than that. I’ve actually just filled out the paperwork this week to arrange for my body to go straight to the body farm once I die. I will be studied as I decompose. Then, my bones will sit among a collection at the university and probably be occasionally studied by students. A major reason I’m doing this is to save my family money on disposal of my remains. Nobody wants to spend $3000 on a coffin.

I never said it was. But much earlier model runs did suggest the possibility for accumulating snow and it was even in the Boston forecast discussions for a little bit. Once that happens I have a tendancy to ride the northerly trending to the bitter end.

Like I’ve said I believe that in the not-too-distant future, the south coast and islands are going to do occasional winters in which these locations fail to receive one inch of snow all season long. Definitely by 2100. I’d bet $100 on it. No more though.

I don’t know what is wrong with my psychology but when an event turns up like this I can’t learn to accept it. im still in a state of disbelief that has me coming back to this board and the model runs on pivotal even though everything has agreed for some time now that this is going to be a no brainer rain event for us. At one point I was upset that I’d be on the south coast and not at home when the action is going on but now it clearly doesn’t even matter because I seriously doubt Willimantic is even going to get a coating of snow. It’s probably gonna do a Valentine’s Day 2007 westerly deal where you get one large flake of snow among a sleet onset. Even warmer than that. With that storm it at least left a coating of ice on top of a liquid underside there. That’s not even going to happen here. It’s just going to rain.

I mean a couple of the models think so. I don’t know if you can assign them personhood.

Is the NAO ever implicated in making storms turn colder a day before they arrive?

Hard for southern Arkansas to see a foot of snow on Christmas.

Even worse than I thought is timing. Mid day stuff. And, I’m not going to be where I live during the first half of this even. I’m going to be 1 mile from the south shore. and when I go home the sleet rain snow line will travel back up with me. totally screwed. a few days ago I thought this was going to be a Saturday night thing. Until I checked just now I assumed that I’d be able to enjoy the first portion of it and see snow. You know what I better hope a colder solution does pop up and pan out because if it’s dumping snow in the morning, which it’s not going to do, I could just call out due to weather conditions. You don’t get penalized for that when it happens. But what are the odds anything will be good enough to justify that.

I took a look at all the models I have access too and the agreement for plain rain here looks quite locked in. Like not even close. But the only odd thing about it all is the rain snow like seems to run a perfect north south latitudinal stretch. It just looks bizarre to me. Usually you see a more diagonal line. That is my only scant hope that it’s wrong and the line will go more SW to NE. Otherwise we are clearly screwed. And as for the 12z Euro it does suggest a quick inch. But it’s kind of an outlier. And it ticked warmer.