IowaStorm05

I have asked about the mid term future of our climate, specifically to do with snowfall during the winter at a few locations I’ve lived in. Reno, NV and coastal Southern New England are two such areas that receive around 20-40 inches of snow per year on average. i have suggested that places like this, which tend to have erratic amounts of winter snowfall seasonal totals from one year to the next, might soon start to occasionally go through an entire winter season without, say, receiving one inch of snow the entire season. in 2019-2020 winter season I read online in some sources that revealed parts of the mid Atlantic failed to receive an inch of snow that winter, but those locations were in cities that average quite a bit less snowfall than New England’s south coast or even Reno. it’s a thought. Meanwhile I found this screenshot with the source in the browser bar I thought I could post So far Coastal New England looks like it has actually seen subtly more snow in recent years but Reno has seen less. These can possibly change direction in future years of course. Again my focus is for locations in the United States which do receive snowfall every winter, and historically have always been guaranteed to receive at least some amount of snow each winter but have an overall average snowfall of less than 40 inches per year. other than the screenshot I provided here is a group of people who did some study on the subject: https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-the-case-of-the-shifting-snow

2004-2005 was still the most intense winter I ever had out here. I mean one storm after another after another and almost all of them were snow. Not only that, the season got started early. Mid-November 2004 a cool 8 inches was dumped on providence. I know sometime in the 2010s might have beat that one… but it was a close comparison I bet

Once in awhile I’ll go for a small amount of whisky. I’m careful about it though I’m kinda vulnerable to substances. Treating Aspergers and ADHD does offer some protection from alcoholism however, but only because I have willpower. I’ll try not to bring up climate shifting again here. But I really hope we get a cool inch or two shortly. That stuff out west makes me jealous. How often I have lived out there when the ridge was always over us in recent decades. They called it a “Rex Block”. Rex Block was my nemesis at the height of my snow crazed teenage years near the Sierra.

I never said every winter is going to be snowless. All I said is it’s possible, that at some point in the future it will happen once or twice. And I am far from the only person who believes that. besides speaking of unreadable you spelt “borders” incorrectly. If you want to insult somebody about language just be sure you know how to spell your insult.

I understand… it was just more of a situation of relevance to this bizarre pattern. Trying to make sense of it and suggest it will change soon. But I know I ramble.

Climate change is thought to be implicated in more extreme and erratic patterns of late. At this time it’s about western severity of winter today. In 2018-2019 it was the Midwest that was buried in snow and -21 degrees F even in southern IA. 2019-2020 was super mild east coast, but earlier in the decade were some winters where snow totals were record breaking. 2021 saw Texas deep freeze. They say at the point we are at it’s about extreme patterns both warm and cold, with a less stable arctic and wrinkly jet stream, and there are other problems such as long term drought out west too. what is going on out west is said to be likely the exception not the norm…. By a long shot…. But with an erratic jet stream and arctic I’m not convinced we know for sure what will happen beyond just the overall average of earth warming. Long term it will be warmer, and we might see a winter or two without measurable snow on the southeast coast of SNE, but there will be plenty of winters where snow is very very deep too especially nowadays before warming advances more. I am profoundly jealous of the PNW and Nevada right now, but I’m not fazed. It will get us. it will get us eventually that’s a promise

Am seeing some more consensus on around an inch for us here. Ill take it Because with these posts you’d think everything was completely cleared. But I realize not everybody lives in eastern CT

Not yet. I don’t know but If signals look good in 12 to 24 hours from now I bet then they will launch it. It’s too soon and the models are way too erratic. i don’t trust a 4.5 day gfs.

I hate freezing rain. I simply hate it. Freezing rain and other relative forms of crusty slippery situations were an even larger problem in central Iowa. In 4 years I can recall at least three situations where 1/4 inch of ice or so occurred. Total skating rink. at least when it’s that bad people aren’t taken by surprise since it’s obvious. But some people would do 40 on the freeway anyway and that’s how you get killed. Anywhere I’ve lived I’ve been caught having to go to work and back in my rear wheel drive car, and being “pressured” by other motorists to do more than 35 mph but almost spinning out. I hate disregard for Inclimate weather.

My ultimate favorite time of year is late May, where most leaves and plants have long been sprouting but everything is this bright and vibrant shade of green PLUS flowers. summer is good but things look darker green and more mature. Furthermore, everything deciduous and green starts taking on a bit of a “crusty” appearance by late August… like the greenery is just tired and middle aged. And in August, Convective activity also dies down (at least around here)

The coast really ****s with SNE in December, and this year the waters have been above normal to begin with.

Actually Nrn Georgia has different seasons. It’s often chilly in the winter. Sometimes even downright cold. And thunderstorms there are killer I hear! San Diego on the other hand, that’s the same damn forecast most of the year with a sporadic winter rain shower here or there. Stay away from San Diego unless you want to Weatherdie. i haven’t lived in either place but I have lived in Los Angeles, which is only 5% less boring than San Diego, but my wx obsession over the years lends me to know a lot about climates in places I haven’t lived before.

Definitely not enough to count on it. The hills in extreme northern GA seem to get snow maybe once a year if I recall Weird how GA has so many pine forests. I tend to think of pine as ALpine in any case it’s better than moving to San Diego.

Which is why although I am not exactly thrilled with anything I see going on right now, things could have a different look in 24 hours

You don’t always see pattern changes clear and well defined coming down the pipeline. They tend to just sneak up on you, by way of filtering through the invisible cracks peppered about what looks like an ongoing and predictable middle range forecast, and then before you know it your long range forecast of endlessly sunny days becomes a parade of aggressive storms.

It’s just that this week, the overall changes in temperature and pattern just feels like snow. Moderate snow. I can feel it in my bones. Guaranteed advisory event will happen over Southern and Central New England within 21 days. That’s the best I can promise.

Kinda makes you wonder how it even manages to melt in the summer.

To me the most impressive thing about it are all these model maps I’ve seen covering every square inch of Oregon with snow. Lowland or sea level PNW snow to boot. Its incredible how much snow you can get versus how much you usually don’t get most years in those parts. Strong or multi year la Nina’s do that over there and when I once lived in Seattle it was El Niño, and that year I don’t recall any storm ever getting snow below 3000-4000 feet all winter. Feels like during the 2nd year of a two-year La Niña she really sinks her teeth into things.

I’ve never ever seen anything like it.

I would say that’s bad but it looks like there isn’t even anything there. i don’t know if I’m just doing something wrong or…. But NAM doesn’t show anything even in southern VT/NH. It went so far north it’s in Canada? And NAM at that range is not that scary to me

Certainly doesn’t look enticing on any model at all that I’ve seen up to now. For Wednesday? All the models I’ve seen don’t show any traces of snow anywhere near southern New England. Yet, Mets did discuss the idea on forecast discussion earlier but models no. I didn’t see where you are… but yeah, I have assumed CT is not getting anything at all on Wednesday.

Good. Because it is the reason we congregate here. I’ve been doing it for 4-5 years now. Weirdly, I go away in the summer and come back in the winter like a migrating…Reindeer! I’m not sure what it is but something is different about the following of summer events. Interior New England gets good storms not unlike Iowa, but both places have lots of moisture and haze in the air. this was a surprise to me coming from Nevada, where you can see every detail of thunderheads in high resolution crystal clear and that looks beautiful. out here it’s like the only way you know it’s coming is that it gets a little more dim outside. That and I grew up on a big hill with a panoramic view to see the storms in detail.

Interesting. I should have figured as much but even still I thought there were big limitations to that, and that ground measurements are still needed.

Aren’t there massive upgrades coming for models? I know things like quantum computing are on the horizon and certainly, more other kinds of upgrades. i don’t really honestly know what level of resolution is possible, because obviously a major component to how models work depends completely ON THE DATA YOU FEED IT!!!!!!!!!!! Hehehe So I think you’d need a grid of weather stations on every square foot of land to get to where you can predict 5 days out with the accuracy of today’s 36 hours out. Having a weather station every square foot of the land would be awkward and expensive.

Tuesday night and Wednesday is a funky adventure into chances for a mixed bag clipping my neighborhood. This has just come into better focus today and I am going to acknowledge there really is a slight chance of snow with this. I am not the only person who thinks this. Not much if any, but what if the current air mass is not fully appreciated. There’s a low of 29 Tuesday night where I live and I’m off Wednesday. It’s not entirely impossible. NAM throws no bones though, but it was quite chilly this morning.