IowaStorm05
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Everything posted by IowaStorm05
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Megablizzards love to pop in 2 weeks out. But they don’t seem to show up or materialize as often 3 days out. Why? it’s a question of…. If these are so rare, why do they show up at 2 weeks predictive models so often, only to go away as you move closer? -
This is a lot of agreement on a storm despite being 4 days out. Honesty this one is going to **** with my head to track. Everybody knows the NW ticking that goes on with these all the time. having a 4 day period of model suspense and revelations is bad for my mental health just because I get upset if it pulls in rain, when we just had a snowstorm miss to the south.
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About 5 months ago I got Meralgia Paresthetica. My left thigh went mostly numb. The majority of it isn’t numb anymore…. But even after all this time the surface of my thigh remains partly numb.
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Yeah well watch that tuck northwest and bring rain to the entire interior coastal plain
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This is the RAP. I must be missing something but this is 700mb air as far as I can see it. It doesn’t look that bad. 850 looks sorta dry tho. I know there has to be an explanation for how I’m probably perceiving this wrong.
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Can that fill in? That’s what the GFS kind of looks like. It’s potency forces it further north and west than it’s supposed to go, but a shallow dry layer eats into the QPF.
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The F*cki** 00z GFS
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Odds are you’re right… but all it would take is a 30 to 50 mile shift northwest overnight… it’s showing signs of its potency already and that can make it tuck.
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Willimantic!
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I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick/Plymouth line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies.
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It might. That was a jarring tick N
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No, but you might. I’m personally expecting 2”
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OMG This really is about to deliver a surprise slam isn’t it.
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0z NAM looking a huge tick north at New Jersey at least. For tomorrow I mean.
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Sorry it doesn’t specify which system it’s talking about. I didn’t know.
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Well, yes. But I’m trying to focus on the statistics of such a deviation whether south or north, inside 24 hours advance notice.
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So. For tomorrows storm, it is my understanding that NOW it is just too late to get a jump north by 40 miles? What about in 2007? Was the tech really any worse off back then? As recently as 2016 I recall discussions on the eve before snowstorms coming to IA that there was an uncertainty margin of about 25 miles when you’re 12 to 24 hours from the event.
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Latest GFS continues to tease me and tickle me. The shape of everything really looks like it just could nudge N. But you have to ignore the NAM, which y’all say is more reasonable in its behavior.
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12z GFS is still interesting but in truth it doesn’t suggest a sharp cutoff.
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I’m not on the bandwagon for a northwest solution anymore because this is inside 48 hours. Climatologically it would make sense to go NW, but it definitely would have happened by now. SE coast may get clipped but it’s unlikely any flakes will get up here.
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It’s climatologically likely. But it’s definitely not certain. I’d guess 60 per cent chance this hits New England plowable along i95 esp CT/RI
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Overall the super south track dumping snow where it is on most models up to this point:… it just seems sort of less likely to happen overall. How often does the Delaware coast get plastered versus Southern New England coast? Not much. It happens. But you know I think it’s true it’s statistically less likely to have that track. That must mean something, right?
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We are seeing some signals we have yet to realize and this could get exciting. Interesting.
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It’s gone anyway. Perhaps this is the year some locations fail to get one inch. The pattern is relentless here even despite changes out west.
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It does it again at 150 hours roughly. But this time it’s more of a hit into SNE
