IowaStorm05

At least it’s kind of long range there

Hence when I said the models have been teasing us for a couple weeks now and then not delivering much

How about just 4 months from now it will be balmy and cozy outside with bright green understory and fresh tree leaves, majestic warmth and crickets. Bright green beauty and golden long sunlight

I don’t like the sound of that. It might mean I’m on the hook for managing to fully staff my mosquito worshipping service.

Preposterous you would think I smoke something cuz I think the models tease us, like one might normally tease a bear.

Does anybody feel like we are being teased by the models, like one might normally tease a bear?

American cars were profoundly more dangerous and unreliable in the 80s. However that is a gorgeous car. Modern vehicles have been progressively perfected and safety has increased, but I do think that the pace of reliability acceleration has slowed, especially with cheaper models. The biggest gains in reliability improvement were made between, probably 1985-2000 in Japan and 1993-2004 In America, with a second acceleration in improvements between 2008 and 2015 after complacency almost pulled Detroit under during the Great Recession but bailouts and reinvestment brought American Auto back from death stronger than ever. But I don’t have statistics to back it up, just observation and memory. Reliability improved before safety did however. Ever see a 2015-2020 Chevy? Gorgeous. I revised my statement slightly when thinking more about it.

Well I’ll believe it when there is more consistent signals than what I see right now. Just a week ago we were all revved up about this massive amount of snow on the way and it wound up raining. I have so so many dang memories of storms being modeled to dump a coastal, only to trend way north by go time. Earlier today the forecast offered almost nothing for the entire duration.

It’s snowing and it is sticking to everything. Got a solid dusting.

So close yet so far.

It is. You can see precip getting knocked back in the eastern zones, although you can see the juice is just south of the coast in eastern New England. 00z and later model runs are, in contrast to the current mood, really starting to beef up snowfall amounts further southeast, maybe reflecting colder dryer air fails to budge much.

It appears we are trapped under a pocket of extra dry air. It’s been snowing for hours now in much of Southwestern CT and I’m told it is moving fast but like I complained earlier…. It is not here. And I’m not very far away from places like Southington or North Haven. But, that screw zone is modeled over northern New London County, of which the border lies about 1 mile to my west as the crow flies. A screw zone combo of dry air meets warm air. I’m within the southern boundary of the zone calling for 2-4 inches but at this point I am not feeling confident. The radar is highly hallucinogenic. what has happened to me was I got myself worked up into a delusion of expecting a solid thump to occur shortly after the southwest zones got going, in addition to taking in all the fan fare of this storm from people all over the northeast, and seeing a few sporadic promising model runs that included my spot in several inch snows.

Much colder air remaining longer points west of hartford. I’m much further north than you but I’m well east of Hartford in Windham county… it’s about 30 degrees now and rising pretty quickly. It was 25 around 5pm. Even more scary, the precip just hasn’t made it in here yet.

I thought it was moving fast but it’s been snowing in much of CT for a long time and it still is nothing out there here. No flakes. I just hope it doesn’t delay so badly that by the time it’s here the warm air is already here. Doesn’t feel “fast” to me at all.

But as of 10:27pm still nothing falling here yet. I feel like it’s taking it’s sweet time.

The RAP 02z is white weenie

Looks like it’s closing in…. Should be starting in 10 to 20 minutes

It would take some kind of ridiculous miracle. I am jealous of western Mass. if only this could surprise us. Otherwise we are going to get an inch. and you are making fun of me. Since when am I a weenie weirdo?

You’re in North Haven? If that’s how it’s gonna roll there I bet I can get the 2-4 suggested by NOAA scientists!

Well, you made a long journey from Milan to Minsk, Rochelle, Rochelle. You never stopped hoping now you’re in the Pinsk. Rochelle, Rochelle.

Is this much cold here just before what is going to actually become a rain event…. at all unusual? I also notice we aren’t expecting much ice or sleet… expecting a thorough scouring out of the cold air with the setup.

I know that, I just didn’t mention it. I promise I grew up where elevation (and position and proximity to mountain) is EVERYTHING. I see the pattern in modeling that resembles a lesser version of that bizarre 1992 event where some locations above 200 feet got many inches and ct valley got almost nothing. But elevations aren’t the only thing in play. But if 230 feet (my spot) is enough to garner some goods then I’d love it. Your enthusiasm is nice so I guess We will see.

A similar rain snow line to this happened in a storm in early 2004 once. Mansfield got a mix at the start with just a hint of a coating. Woonsocket got about 1.5 inches of snow before the coup de gras turnover. i think that storm was less significant than this as a whole tho

I’m not convinced to expect much of anything at all. What We would need is the rain snow line being expected to flirt with Norwich/Warwick/Foxboro. Sadly this is more than just a couple tweaks away from getting the goods I think. HRRR is tempting but I am having trouble buying it

That is a once-every-three-years type scenario.