PerintonMan

I'll take the under.

Someone between Harrisburg and Worcester is going to get a ridiculous total.

That's not gonna git 'er done.

Verbatim, this is exactly the kind of storm that gets NYC and the megalopolis to freak out, only to probably bust anyway. Too far south for us. A lot of cows getting snowed on.

Makes sense -- there are multiple ways to skin this cat, with either a more west/east track through central PA or a south/north track through Albany.

What's the ideal setup/track for a big synoptic event between Syracuse and Buffalo? In New England we talk about the 40/70 benchmark. What's the rule of thumb here? Seems like a track from Pittsburgh to Albany would pay off for everyone pretty well.

I'm new here, but how the hell do we get a strong low pressure near NYC, NNE winds, on December 20, and end up with rain?

One of the nice things about ROC, again from my impression over 2.5 years, is that p-type can usually be taken for granted. The overcast gets to me, but the reliable flurries (or better) 4-5 days a week is nice. In Boston I was constantly sweating the rain/mix line. A lot of days of 39 degrees and mist. But you occasionally get hammered (Nemo, all of 2015 which I just missed out on having moved to CA in mid-January). Actually, the one thing I hated the most about Boston weather was the month of June. About half of the month, 20 miles inland would be 75 and partly cloudy, but in Boston it'd be 65 and overcast. June 2009 (my first in Boston) was brutal. Sorry to go OT, but let's be honest, there is nothing going on right now.

I'll pass. To be honest, I'm most excited by the extreme events. Blizzard of 93, Blizzard of 96 in my childhood. "Nemo" in Boston in 2013 was my high water mark. I know synoptically we're just not in as favorable an area for that kind of storm, and that's OK given the general "wintriness" that is usually pleasant, but even an 8-12" type of event, which is nothing earth-shattering but fun to follow, seem like they've been pretty rare around here. Maybe it was just last year that had a really mediocre pattern. I think two years ago MLK weekend was the last significant storm of that kind. Before that, I visited in mid-March either 3 or 4 years ago when ROC got something like 18", albeit spread out over about 48 hours (it's no New England Miller B, where 18" in 12 hours isn't unheard of, but I'd take it).

Having lived here for 2 years, this is now my 3rd winter in the area. My impression so far is that it's a lot of cold and overcast, and a lot of C-2" types of events that make it look pretty for a few hours/days, doesn't actually accumulate significantly, yet somehow still adds up to 80" per year. Is that about right? If so, I kind of prefer the SNE pattern (grew up in CT, grad school in Boston) of less snow overall, less frequent snow, but occasional monsters.

Sleeting off and on here in SE Monroe County. Looks/sounds cool at least. Actually coming down pretty hard right now.

Thanks, I lurked last year and appreciated the model analysis and insight into weather patterns specific to WNY. (And, frankly, as a scientist, I like discussion a little more sophisticated than what I hear on the local news or weather.com.)

I've only lived here 2 years, but anecdotally it seems like there are a lot more temperature forecasts that bust high than bust low, like there's no ceiling to warm air.