Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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I know it's the Nam, but it wants nothing to do with the 'storm'. It keeps ramping up that second wave, leaving nothing behind for our system....I'm sure this will be the case (assuming we are getting something) that the storm will just pop out of nowhere in the 48-72 hr range on that model. It clearly has no clue or maybe it does? -
I guess I can't complain, too much....I am close to my seasonal total from 2 years ago. This cold windy garbage is relentless though and is causing a lot more angst towards winter than ever before....my kids are going to destroy the house and I will end up with a nervous breakdown if they can't get out and get rid of some daily energy!
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Lol and the GFS will be right this time around....wrong when it shows snow and right when it doesn't. Just follows the theme, pick the least snowiest model and role with it for your forecast. Sure there have been a few positive busts this year so far, but what is a positive bust of 1 inch really? Can we just get a few inches on the ground before we transform into the arctic for the week? Is that really too much to ask for living in New England?
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hopefully room for a consensus in the middle?
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it seems the GFS tries to deepen that second wave off of the Carolinas and move it NE...pulling the zone father off shore, the weaker that is probably the better for us it ends up
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1.6" on the western side of Southbury...definitely another 'over achiever' Blue skies popping out now, the fluff will be gone by noon
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Not that it matters much, but the Nam looks worse....maybe it tries for a hail Mary at the end, give me a couple inches and we will call it a day
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I enjoyed today's half inch, I would even take the 3-6 it showed....just get some snow on the ground during peak climo already.
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Well that was fun while it lasted...on to the next one.
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Not sure it looks as good....looks like the ridge is about to fold over, less confluence to the NE as well. Might have just moved toward the Euro....
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Energy is consolidated north of the lakes at 84, pretty much where the Euro was.... Icon, certainly looks better
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Besides 2015, I feel like it is always the GFS that caves in these less than 5 day battles.....hopefully it's the GFSs turn
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Yeah...seeing that now, confluence to the NE is a bit stronger too
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I had no clue they even existed....
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early on the energy seems to be buried in the SW more, probably doesn't bode well, but I guess we shall see
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It's the confluence shoving things back WSW, keeping the ridge from folding over.....
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Eyeballing about the same here....a nice 3-4 hrs of light snow with temps near 26⁰...something one would expect in January around here
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Thoughts on how the confluence in the NE is shunting that shortwave south on the GFS while the Euro is weaker and allows it to move further east? Maybe we need the stronger confluence early on in eastern Canada....
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I mean we still have PTSD stemming from 2015, was it the Euro OP that didn't agree with its own ensembles which was a red flag? I also feel like there have been quite a few times, somewhat recently where the OPs were having a tough time, yet the ensembles led the way....
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In this 4-5 day range, I feel like if the ensembles were trending the wrong way while the Ops were showing hits it would be more concerning....but at least for now it is the other way around. Both the Euro and GFS have been completely wrong before at this time frame, so at this point no real answers...Hope for a blizzard but reality says Dr. No will take the prize....
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On a side note, not that anyone cares...but it is snowing nicely down here atm. Good sign for this weekend?!?!
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The swings on the OPs are ridiculous, especially inside of 5 days....especially at the 500 level
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Definitely some light snow falling now, looks hazy at least....26/17 atm
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It's actually snowing outside right now....at least the ground is cold enough
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I would feel better burning it with snow on the ground...probably close to using 2 cords so far along with a quarter tank of oil....definitely ahead of my burning schedule
