Spanks45

Snow picking up now, looks like snow growth is better too....no longer looks like sand falling from the sky

0.8" looks nice....hopefully the hrrr has a clue and we can grab another 1-2 here. 24.4⁰

That's pretty ugly....guess it is hard to say if the past 2 years is a trend or just a crappy 2 year winter pattern. Persistence for the win or loss depending on what side of the fence you are on...interesting how that area of higher heights on the east coast through the north Atlantic tends to run north of the gulf stream

Are these lows hugging the coastline because of the warmer waters along the coast? If so, that is a double whammy for all of us that aren't above 600ft moving forward....unless of course the coastal waters find some way to cool off in the future during the winter season.

Yeah I am not saying way above average like we have seen in past years, but even 1-2 degrees above average in marginal setups along SNE seems to be the difference. I guess my question is tomorrow for example....am I going to lose 1-3 inches of snow to taint because of warmer than average water temps? If the water temps were even just say average for this time of the year, would taint even be an issue this far north? On paper, cold airmass ahead of it, we don't have SW flow out front of it and it's January 16th, not March or November.... Meteorologically speaking, I know there are many more factors than airmass and water temps that can determine rain vs snow vs sleet in the grand scheme of our climate. My background is in Biology and Oceanography so I understand how powerful even 1 degree in a body water can be....I took an air-sea interaction course in college, but that was a long time ago, so my memory needs some refreshing from the pros here....and my approach here is not to complain or whine about it not snowing imby, but more to open a scientific conversation on why it seems our winter weather pattern down here has been all or nothing for quite sometime. Or even the so called wet/warm coldish/dry pattern has been dominant....

In regards to the 80s, it just didn't want to snow. The cold was there, just not the precip when it was needed. Now, when it does snow it is because we threaded some needle and pulled some teeth to finally get it to happen. CC doesn't mean it doesn't snow anymore or it never gets cold anymore. At this stage, it probably means when we actually get a snow storm it will be one that breaks records or when it does get cold, it will end up breaking records. CC seems to be increasing the frequency of record breaking events. But regardless of those snow totals, our months and year temperatures will most likely be above or way above average. But again, it doesn't mean we can't have a below average month, or even even a well below average month (February 2015 for example) The big question remains, how is CC affecting our bread and butter systems and thus our seasons on average.... If we taint more often, knocking off a few inches here and there, plus a few systems that are marginal and end up 33 and rain instead of 31 and snow. Maybe we miss out on 10 to 15, maybe even 20 inches each season. Then we have what we have been dealing since 2014/15. However, those "good" seasons since then have been saved by 1 or 2 big storms or by a prolific 2 week winter. Otherwise they didn't really have that feeling of average, let alone above average. I still think coastal water temps are killing our winter seasons down here and probably won't change until the water temps come back down to average, if they ever do at this point. So, I will take any snow I can get down here and enjoy it....it's still more than I ever had growing up in the Mid Atlantic region.

New climate we live in....it is amazing what our winters look like when our offshore waters are a few degrees warmer than what they should be. Taint ends up x amount of miles further inland for offshore systems. It's almost like we need a system outside of the Benchmark to ensure all snow along the coastline during the coldest part of the year. It's one thing if we don't have any cold air around, but now that we do, even the weakest of low pressures can taint the region ...This is why we cant have an average season anymore without some massive snowstorm to pad the stats so to speak or in some cases that doesn't even matter. Definitely Mid Atlantic climate vibes. If the offshore waters can ever get back to even near normal, maybe things can change...until then hedge on the lower side of most forecasts with systems like this. Hoping for 1-3 down here before we flip to drizzle, most likely we are 34-35 with slop tomorrow mid day

It's a nice area around there, always enjoy the drive when I am in the region. Heading out 15 minutes, might be able to miss most of the squalls even if they do develop around here....

Headed down your way for kids winter baseball workouts (zone nation I believe) I am sure if we get them, it will be around that time, so expect a full on mini blizzard down there around 130 this afternoon....lol

60⁰ and sun down here....feels great! It better snow soon or spring mode starts early

Hopefully for once we can have something work in our favor when it comes to the PV chunk and phasing....it's been a rough 2 seasons down here

So the big question hanging in the room is, will the block end up suppressing this into a mid atlantic storm? Reminds me a bit of the blizzard in 2016 ( I think that was the year)

This system has the ebb and flow vibe of old....in the next 24-36 hrs should at least confirm a system then we can start talking accumulations... hopefully

So it looks like the GFS around 66 hrs has less of that windmax....so in theory it would less of a hit?

Amazing that a difference in the strength of a s/w, only a few days out could be the difference between rain/snow/whiff....clearly this potential is very intricate and won't be resolved until we are well within NAM time, lol...

That would be a rough way run the first true cold shot of the season...flooding to cold and dry. Hopefully the ensembles show something, cause that would definitely cause some panic for those that haven't gotten much so far.

3.38" here....peak gust on my station was 23, usually add 15-20 onto that, so 40ish...not terrible. I can here the neighborhood creek roaring

AN would be fantastic, but down here I am just hoping to beat last year's pathetic 12.1".....Next will be more inches of snow than inches of rain? The past 2 years really does remind me of what it was like living in the Mid Atlantic before their climate went all South Carolina-like. Hopefully we get a good snowy stretch late January/February and then clear it out and actually have a decent Spring this year.

Winds are starting to roar out there as we speak....no where near what they were a couple weeks back, but not quiet either. Running water everywhere, flooding should be pretty impressive tomorrow at this rate...

snow/sleet/rain mix here to start, temp is up to 34 off of a low of 17.....

I just noticed today that my pool water level is just below the cover...guess I will be out shoveling the mini glacier trying to access it so I can pump some water out before the great flood. I know as some point it is going to get cold enough to freeze and cause damage to the liner....I have had to pump out so much water from that thing since late June... When law of averages take over, it is going to drought like Southern Cal.

4.6" total in Southbury....final burst was nice and salvaged what was a pretty meh storm. Kids had a great time regardless...

3.1" from the first round..... Southbury

How much did you end up with?

Had 3.1" around 12:15 before the sleet and eventually rain took over...hit 35.1⁰ around 5 am, back down to 33.3⁰ with some light snow...hopefully we can pick up a couple refresher inches later, but not expecting much...congrats to those in the north!