Spanks45
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Everything posted by Spanks45
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We are in a interesting location for this, basically a boom or bust situation....2-5 inches on the front end changing to a brief period of sleet to freezing rain and finally hours of snizzle until the upper level low catches up for round 2. Which at this point is the wild card, another 3-6 or 4-8 maybe if all comes together?
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Then again, looking closer for the western portions of CT/MA and NY the EPS precip numbers seemed to have increased and expanded, even the ( I know, I looked at the snow output too). So yes a tick north, but also an increase in moisture that didn't affect much of SNE negatively
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Everyone knew it was coming, but it seems a bit early...I would assume this "trend" continues until at least 12z tomorrow. Even so, that still puts us almost 60 hours until the second part of the system with plenty of room for wobbles....
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watching models long enough, you know some sort of head fake is coming...It is much better to see the high building right now versus lifting out...90+ hrs feels like an eternity right now
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998 right off of OC Md....We are about to get Nam'd, worried that this continues to push southward....congrats DC?
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The 6z control is....out of control as well as the snowfall mean, nice to see it continue to look better at this point and hopefully not start reverse course. It is nice to have this be the EURO and not the GFS
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Kinda has the look of the 12z Euro, just colder. Just 90+ hours to go....
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Well at least the GFS is the warmest model at this point, we can just ride the Euro and EPS right?
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On the line down here, but might be all frozen based on the recent run....Seems like the current "trend" is for cooler lower levels, of course the upper levels are going to torch regardless until the secondary takes over...At least it looks like a normal SWFE around these parts, with a possible "bonus" with the secondary development
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If correct, the GFS has some snow as early as Sunday morning. The whole thing might just end up as a SWFE. Few inches of snow to sleet/ freezing rain to drizzle before ending and the secondary developing a hair too late, just offshore....
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Yeah I remember the big changes with the northern edge of precip, especially when you are being fringed 24 hrs to gametime. I was thinking more on the lines of picking up on a long duration snowstorm, well in advanced....
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If that primary goes up into Wisconsin, I think we might have something. If it starts heading towards Detroit then we are cooked...
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I know it is early, but it would be nice to track something in December. Even if it isn't a massive blizzard, 4-8 inches across the entire region would be nice. I know its the ICON, but it does have a similar look to the GFS. Did the GFS and a few other models pickup on that Mid Atlantic blizzard in 2016 like 5 days out? That has a transient Greenland block if I recall....
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I'm pretty much in the bullseye right now, so that means either nothing at all or all rain....
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Euro looking good so far for the 1st....
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Didn't someone have a theory on where the low enters the west coast, it will leave at the same lat on the east coast?
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Had a few mangled snowflakes at the tail end, just dumped the Stratus, 1.41" of rain....current temp is 36.9°
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no love back here, but we did go from 41 to 37 in 30 minutes.....might see some flakes with the heavier echoes before the precip lifts out
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Born and raised in Lancaster, I family sending pictures of their snow covered yards asking me where the snow is up there? Lol
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My hometown in southern PA is flipping over to snow right now with accumulations....not sure if that was forecasted there, but maybe some surprises later on?
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Goofus with a 965 mb South of Long Island on the 2nd. I am sure that is going to happen...lol
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No blockbusters needed at this point, can we please just get a nice 4-8 inch storm with some cold around. Is that really too much to ask for? Lol
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I know it is early, but it just reminds me of that storm in 2016? We finally got a nice period of blocking and the Mid Atlantic got the storm, just before the block went away....That season 2015/2016 was pretty terrible down this way if I recall.
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I am pretty sure we can lock that Day 10 storm in the Mid Atlantic on the GFS. Throw in a nice Greenland block and they are sure to score the first snowstorm of the season, even if it is December 2nd....
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At least with that EPO look, the air is coming from colder areas rather than the Pac ocean....
