UnionCountyNCWX

I'm still sticking with my guns on the 7th storm. Climo wins 95% of the time, but this is still the closest look I've seen in a while. As long as models show a storm in the SE that's not an apps runner, and HP to the north, I'll take those chances. Need help, but it's possible. I'd rather be overly optimistic about this one chance than nothing at all, because who knows when there's gonna be another one looking long range.

18Z GFS coming in 4-5 degrees colder during the 7th storm. upper 30's and rain for most of the board, with snow confined to basically I40 North. Overall better than the 12Z run, and VERY close to showing something more exciting.

January 7th-10th is the timeline we all need to be looking at. Right now, this solution is an outlier. But guidance has strong support of a storm in this timeframe. Some have all the players we need, some don't. But this timeframe overall shows the strongest support of a potential storm that can make the (almost) entire forum happy that I've seen in a couple of years that doesn't seem like a fantasy. (IMO, the storm around the 4th is just a bonus if something pans out, but it's not what I think is the best opportunity)

Happy hour time (maybe?) at 120 on the GFS, cold press is slightly further south compared to 12z. EH, at 132, temps are 2-3 degrees cooler accross the board. but 45 and rain , and 48 and rain are still just rain. 138 - temps 5-10 degrees cooler accross the board compared to 12z. Still relatively close for some magic.

Timetables are different by about 36-48 hours, but the CMC also showing the system, but even closer to what we want to see. Though it has the system coming around the 3rd into the 4th. for the sake of not having the feed being forever to scroll down, i won't post the shot from TT, but it's close to a good scenario.

SOOO much potential over the next couple of weeks based on the 6Z GFS. Just a little bit more help, and there's a good chance someone gets the ground white at least. Specifically the storm shown on the 6Z GFS around January 8th. The LP is essentially in a PERFECT position. Get that thing to neg tilt a bit, and get that HP to build in just a little bit more, and you have a perfect storm. It looks ugly on the surface, but temps are around 40 for most of the forum so again, baby steps in the right direction, and we got a winner. This one (really January 8-10 as a whole) has my eye for now over everything else.

Honestly, really not far off for a lot of us to see token flakes on the 29th-30th. Maybe a tad bit more with some help.

Granted everything can fizzle out of course, but so far this season, this has been about as "to the book" type pattern as expected in a strong El nino as you can expect, which means we should have at least some shots at fun over the next couple of months.

GFS honking the horn around New Years as well, though not as pronounced. Brad P even mentioning the pattern change this morning, so that's at least one positive sign.

Today's 12z GFS has more snow at the beach than a majority of the foothills at the end of the run lol. That was fun to see.

Was finally able to make it up to the mountains again for the first time since leaving to move to Charlotte in 2021. Figured I’d share a couple of pictures I took in Spruce Pine last week. .

I almossstttttt booked a hotel room around Asheville for the event. Glad I waited until the model runs today, saved me some money. I'm punting until next year, and I'm ok with that.

I want 70 and sun. I'm tired of the 45 degree rain we have twice a week.

Can't remember the last time I was nervous about the sun being out in January lol. Granted I'm to the East of the of the highest counts of that map. But with the sun being out all afternoon, does make me cautious, moreso than I have been in a while.

Massive change at 174(not really affecting our forum) but compared to the 18z, it FLIES to the NE. Left of Maine at 0z, when at 18z, the LP is in the southern part of Pennsylvania.

Not sure if this run will do/show it, but has a potential setup for a huge NWF up in the mountains.

156, DEFINITE improvement over 18z, at least the LP is on this side of the Apps. Regardless of precip falling, that is a big step back in the right direction. Haven't looked at the upper air charts yet.

Hour 150, has every indication of going Boom. good placement for the LP coming up, but see what happens in the next frame. Something to watch for is it looks like it almost want to form a hybrid miller A/B at 136, though it has a ways to go, but definite energy interaction.(IMO)

HP over Minnesota looks to be a tad slower coming down and stronger (7mb) than the same frame on the 18z (hr 96 on 0z, 102 on 18z)

Next couple of weeks have so much potential. Whether that means joy or tears remains to be seen, but at least it will be fun to watch. Haven't seen a flake of snow since I moved out of the Boone last July(2021) so hopeful for something. If not, it'll go right along with all of the sports teams I pull for sucking as well this year.

Snowing in Boone.

Definitely colder in Boone than an hour ago. Clear skies still

Evening everyone guess it’s that time of year to become active again. Can’t remember my previous accounts password (ashecounty48) so I have a new name now. Anyways, clear skies in Boone currently, temp definitely dropping fast.