UnionCountyNCWX

Seems to be a somewhat solid agreement of a decent shot at area wide rain next Friday, maybe weekend as well.

Looks like even long term it's gonna be a wet month. On a serious note, wouldn't be surprised if we do end up with a hot and dry summer if the La nina starts to form, so can't complain too much besides not being able to golf on my days off lol.

I'm blaming you lol

Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol

I officially mow the lawn for the first time this coming Monday. Seems to line up with the beginning of Spring decently well.

Posted this in the sanitarium but I'll post here too. If you want to see an impressive HP setup, go to the 12z GFS at 228 and watch that HP build in. If this was a different winter and we had at least some things going our way, that would be a PERFECT HP for us to score.

NGL, I legit just about got mad at the 12z GFS. go to hour 228, and watch that HP build in. You LITERALLY CANNOT draw up a better HP to have during a storm, and of course we have nothing coming in during that. granted there's still no artic air around, but that is textbook HP for us to score.

I was just thinking about the great lakes ice this morning. Am I wrong in thinking that 15-20 years ago it was normal for most of the lakes to be completely covered in ice? I feel like they used to talk about lake effect snow "until the lakes froze." But haven't heard of talk like that in a while. But maybe I'm remembering incorrectly.?

Never know, it's entirely possible, but it's gonna have to be a miracle in march as Feb seems to be cooked.

Petty themed car with Creed as an associate sponsor for the 500? Sign me up for this guy to make it back into the winner circle.

To be fair, outside of severe weather / tropical stuff, this particular thread is somewhat dead when it's not winter lol.

At this point I'm rooting for the solutions that are showing a dry(drier) weekend as opposed to the cold and wet ones. I'm over it.

Maybe that's the key though, to be looking for unicorns. Every time there's talk over the past couple of years (may go back further but I've noticed this since I've moved from Boone to Monroe) about a true "pattern change" in the winter it NEVER happens. At the MOST, we've had a couple days where it is cooler, or even maybe a couple of days of cold, but a true pattern change has not happened, as much as it's advertised. Unless a true Nino happens that actually acts like one, I don't think we can actually score anymore in a "good" setup, we HAVE to count on luck.

I was supposed to be at Beech the weekend of the 16 incher, but called into work 48 hours before i was supposed to leave. It stings now more than ever that I missed that.

Although (as mentioned already) he leans toward the pessimistic side of things, he called it out almost a couple of weeks ago already, so as pessimistic as he may be, he was confident in this not working well before crunch time, so props for that.

9'er gang, let's go!!!!!!

Monthlies already showing an unfavorable pacific but there may be an opportunity for 36 hours of a split flow pattern... (JK)looks like we're running a la nina into the summer, so wouldn't be surprised if we have another warm/dry start to next winter.

Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out)

Ready for that one person to say they'll take the Euro over all other guidance.

Pacific sucks and is getting worse, and the Atlantic was never good but it's heading into suckage as well, time for a hot and dry summer, think you can count on that.

At least the sun angle can help dry out the golf courses faster.

NGL, I am actually interested in finding out how many El Nino's in history compare to how bad this one has been overall lol.

I do not care how many degrees you may have or how long you have studied the weather. If the Pacific doesn't agree, I'm not buying into it ever again lol. (shoutout to Brad P for being right lol)

Normally it's I40, so this is a step better than compared to the past few years lol

Actually that goes right along with what I said earlier, as TT won't show the 21z frame and looked slight warmer before/after this frame, so that does help a lot for sure, thanks for posting that frame!