Cat Lady

As of today the northeast is looking like the best bet for clear skies, but we have quite a ways to go with this forecast.

I'm trying not to worry until Monday :-|

Not seeing a general thread on the April 8th Eclipse yet, so I'm starting this one. We're traveling (flying) to Austin, TX and looking at the current (LONG RANGE) forecast, it could be dicey. Where are you headed? When do you plan to make the call for where you'll see the eclipse from? Where & When (nasa.gov)

12/5/3

^This is a really nice analysis. I'm going to replicate it with Hurricane Days - I'm most curious about total activity, and don't want a Dorian like storm to blow up a September.

I'm also trying to temper my expectations with this, but balancing it with the terrible Euro performance over the past 2 years when it comes to formation. Basin conditions look good, and its unlikely that *nothing* will happen in the next 2 weeks.

20/9/3

Thanks! What a great resource! I searched for snow / ice / freezing rain events that impacted wake county since 1990 (since I had to manually copy paste data) to get a frequency distribution of number of events that occur in any year. While the average is just shy of 3 for that area, we are most likely to see far fewer or far more events than to see the average. All that to say climatology would support the idea that the current set up has us on a snow train, similar to how we see groups of wave coming off the coast of Africa during peak hurricane season. We're already above average, and I would expect us to have more events coming down the line just based on this event level frequency data.

Can anyone please share a source for climatology of # of snowfall events? My NC memory says we either get nothing season, or a multi event season, but I'd like to confirm with data. Could be state wide, or a bigger / smaller region.

Dangerous to say "correcting" - its definitely adjusting, but it's wishcasting to say the southern bias is more accurate this far out. I'm definitely watching out for US landfalls.

Possible - yes! Likely? We'll see. Given the storm is going to get shredded and *potentially* re-form, I'm not giving much confidence to the HWRF model. We'll see what they say if the storm actually reorganizes.

18/9/3

Does anyone have any knowledge on how long we've been naming sub tropical systems? I assume it correlates with the satellite era, but I'm wondering if there are any other specifics.

NHC admits their intensity forecast is high as of 11am. My best guess is to fight public hurricane fatigue, but is there a meteorological reason that I'm missing?