vortex95

Crazy mountain QPF/snow bulls-eyes are a big 3 km NAM issue, but not nearly as much for the HRRR.

23z HRRR was not a fluke. 00z HRRR even more aggressive. Looks like it is focused on Brace Mountain NY (elevation 2311 ft). It has a 3" QPF bulls-eye there, and wicked downslope screw zone for pcpn just to its W. Kuchera says 28.6". Why not? Low track and flow is right for great upslope flow this area. Of course, we may never get verification unless a true weenie goes up there to measure, but either way, some pretty amazing totals for April seems likely this area. EDIT: Going back several runs of the HRRR, and it is consistent w/ the Brace Mtn bulls-eye.

Not if the band is in the right place and pivots.

23z HRRR Kuchera shows almost 27" right at the intersection of the MA/CT/NY border. CoastalWx has to be impressed! Berkshires/Catskills special? Slide Mountain could do *really* well!

The title of this thread is "Please end it." Well, CoastalWx will still have to wait b/c no sign winter wants to end anything time. If the ECMWF a week from now is any sign, well perhaps a "late season surprise" may still happen!

I recall NWS PWM continued the winter storm warning well after the event was done and when there full sun b/c the melting was causing a huge hazard due to ice falling off everything.

I saw a mention in a NWS chat group that the BOS -SN reported was most likely PL, but I can't confirm if that was indeed the case.

When you reference all the back to the start of period of record for location, that's a climate statement by default, or will be inferred as such by many. I pointed out the caveats of the data and details on a meteorological level (how snow and sleet are counted as one - frozen precip). Not everyone is aware of this. Details count in science. Also, stating "for the first time on record" is subject to debate here. One should not talk in absolutes when there is this kind of uncertainly. That's a big problem in science-based data these days, the level of uncertainty is often ignored w/ measurements and data. No one is discounting this is a low snow period for SNE, as I said that in my post, but the historical context perspective was of value. Facts are meaningless w/o context.

This is assuming a lot. First, splitting hairs between frozen precip (snow vs. sleet) when it is only a trace is inconsequential as to wx/climate. So BOS has a trace of sleet instead of snow in a month - makes zero difference in long-term climate normals or in sensible wx. Second, March 1894, 1901, 1915. 1921, and 1925 all had a trace of frozen precip. Do we really know if all those months had snow? Like 2025, it could have been just sleet. And from a climate standpoint, why is it that a trace of frozen precip occurred 5 times in March 1894-1925, and then did not occur again until 1979 despite overall warming? And then it took another 30+ years for to have another March trace again? The point is what has happened in recent years for the dearth of snow in March in BOS is nothing new and not unprecedented when avoiding short periods slicing/dicing things down to do everything possible to find a record and mention the word 'unprecedented' for content and something to hype. Just b/c recently snow has dipped big time is meaningless in the context of climate and trends. Much too short term for determining anything either way. The "recency bias" logical fallacy is tiresome, yet it is pushed on us repeatedly b/c people fall for it over and over. We live way too much in the here and now and forget even the recent past, which skews our perception of things big time. So I say stop making things bigger or more impressive than they really are, esp. when you are talking about long-term wx/climate, records, and the overall pix. Sure, it 'CoastalWx blows' that snow has been hard to come by in recent years in SNE, but CoastalWx knows the pain all too well from the 1980s how crappy it was then! Decadal cycles occur! He needs to remember that 1991-2020 was the *snowiest* 30-yr period on record for BOS, w/ the seasonal avg going *up* 6" from the 1981-2010 normals. Now that is impressive for a 30-yr normal change for snowfall for a location that is right on the ocean and deals w/ ptype issue a lot!

K3J1 - Ridgeland SC KXNI - Zuni NM KU16 - Eagle Range UT 41.067 -113.083 1292m KU19 - Granite Peak UT 40.167 -113.350 1310m KU96 - Halls Crossing UT

KMWS - Mount Wilson CA 34.231/-118.069 1702m KNEN - Jacksonville/Whitehouse NOLF FL KNRA - Coupeville NOLF WA KO26 - Lone Pine CA KPHG - Phillipsburg KS KU14 - Nephi UT KVMR - Vermillion SD

K4M3 - Carlisle AR K4V9 - Neligh NE K8D4 - Sparta MI K9A4 - Courtland AL KN24 - Questa NM KTAH - Green Canyon 641 LA - 27.37 / -90.71 65m KU10 - Preston ID KX21 - Titusville/Dunn FL POKA - Tununak AK

K1B9 - Mansfield MA K5A9 - Warm Springs GA K6E5 - Desmet SD KBXM - Brunswick ME KSUO - Rosebud SD PFCB - Chenega AK

K3K7 - Leoti KS K3W7 - Electric City WA KE01 - Monahans TX KF95 - Blountstown FL KI40 - Coshocton OH PFKO - Kotlik AK PFZK - Akiachak AK

K49B- Sturgis SD K9Y1 - Killdeer ND KETO - Mississippi Canyon 941 LA 28.03N / 89.10W 43m KTQS - Lompoc/South Vandenberg CA 34:38N / 120:37W 34m KVGN - KVGN - Lompoc/North Vandenberg CA 34:51N 120:36W 93m