Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Coming down hard now, must be some sleet mixed in because I can hear it, but staring at windshield, still mostly liquid. Ice is getting thicker. Sidewalk still just wet.

Feels like rain or drizzle, but my car is icing up. Local Houston news reporting snow nearby, which makes little sense looking at 850 mb temps by SPC mesoanalysis 4C in NW Harris County. Houston mailing address, but can't vote in elections, ~5 miles West of IAH airport. (My wife for reference picture below) 18Z Euro, per KHOU weather, up to six inches at Hobby Airport (the original airport, the LaGuardia to JFK) South of downtown, more than DFW. 4F here Tuesday morning if verifies will be coldest temp here ever recorded. I delivered the Daily News in Massapequa Winter 76-77, cold doesn't scare me, but will kill my citrus and will probably kill my palm trees. Dead 30 foot palm trees probably cost money to remove.

Feels like light rain/drizzle Houston area (Houston mail address, don't vote in city elections) about 5 miles West of I-45 and a couple miles North of Beltway 8, (not far from FM 1960, if anyone knows the area) but it is freezing on the car. Sidewalk just wet. TV suggests Northwest suburbs switching to snow faster than modeled, which makes no sense based on SPC mesoanalysis 850 mb temps.

32°F at DWH, light rain falling, IAH still 35°F. SGR reporting snow and 34°F, but 850s are well above freezing by SPC mesoanalysis, so I suspect an ASOS issue. Edit- light rain, no outdoor station, about halfway between DWH and IAH.

3 km 18Z NAM has more precip than 12 km NAM for Houston by a couple of tenths, which only matters in Winter. Looking at NCEP QPF, I think 3 km is happier for Dallas as well. Not that happy. But happier. I think they still ratio 5 inches.

18Z GFS midweek storm might have significant sleet or ice and not that much snow...

Can a red tagger who does top down forecasting visit the Texas subforum on the mid-West forum. 850 mb just above freezing and surface temps well below would seem to suggest mostly sleet on Euro for Houston, but the saturated level above the warm nose doesn't seem cold enough from what I heard for dendrites, and I am wondering if melted snowflakes required for sleet. Enough QPF to be interesting even as sleet, but an inch of freezing rain would cripple any city, let alone one in the South that is 3 years removed from last freezing rain disaster. (TXDOT pretreated highway overpasses and cloverleaf interchanges with CaCl2 brine solution, but heavy showers not well forecast just before the icing event washed it from the major highway flyovers, or they became skating rinks despite the best efforts). OT- I followed Direct Energy's advice and called my pipes stupid.

Does any PPV site have Euro ice/sleet/snow products? I'm not sure how they differentiate between sleet and freezing rain anyway, but am curious as to whether Euro has significant ice SETX. About a decade ago I spotted freezing drizzle over the snow HGX forecast, the NY subforum has red taggers who explained top down forecasting, I think down here the mets may have just looked at 540 thickness and 850 temps and said snow, but I wish a red tagger from a Northern forum could look at the soundings, because snow or freezing drizzle somehow seems simpler than sleet or freezing rain.

Looking at soundings on Euro, 850s and College Station support snow, QPF suggests more than drizzle, but temps are not cold enough in the saturated layer for dendrites, could be serious icing. Similar in Houston, except 850 temps don't quite support snow.

Euro relatively dry with DFW, ratios would still support ballpark 5 inches. Big Cities, I-35 Waco to San Marcos look like the winners. DFW may just be too far North for the big action. 12km NAM should be getting in range, looking at NYC subforum, NAM is having a good Winter up there and is even drier for DFW. GFS and Euro have a decent discrepancy on the amount of QPF in Houston Sunday night/Monday morning, almost half an inch. NAM splitting the difference.

Direct Energy said we should properly insult our pipes. OT, verbatim GFS Wednesday starts with freezing rain in Houston before a quick change to rain, by the time heavy rain arrives it would near 40F, but 5 days out, maybe it turns out to be more than just a hundredth between changeover. skew-Ts in Winter, didn't think I'd do that much.

Ratios will be worse, but QPF better per GFS on mid-week system. Temps at the saturated level by Wednesday evening may not support efficient dendrite formation, could cause 'snizzle. 5 days out, but potentially even more interesting than Sunday, even if Sunday has better ratios just because of temps. I wonder how many buildings in DFW built for a total 1.5 or higher liquid equivalent snow weight on their roofs. I remember, after we moved to Texas, a supermarket roof collapsing back in Massapequa because of a couple of consecutive heavy snows. 8 lbs/square foot, a 1.5 inch liquid equivalent snowpack...

I don't know how it helps, but per Direct Energy's precautions, I told my pipes they are stupid.

EWX- This is an unprecedented week of weather for South-Central Texas. Our collective group of meteorologists at our offices can not remember a time where we had 4 potential winter weather events across our County Warning Area in one week.

Dallas would like the GFS better for the two storms, assuming one likes snow. Houston would like the Euro better for QPF down here, mid week storm Euro is, literally, one degree Celsius too warm for the famous once a decade Houston big highway cloverleaf ramps skating party. Not a lot of QPF mid-week, but a touch colder, just a dab'll do ya. I think, looking at Euro and GFS, Houston has very little freezing rain Monday, a change from rain to sleet and graupel. Wondering if some snow flakes might survive the slight warm nose. Sleet or snow, once you have half an inch, the pictures look very similar.

Born in NYC, raised on Long Island, Grandma now buried in Marshfield, but lived across from North Quincy T, saw as many Yankee games at Fenway, maybe more, than Yankee Stadium (my late Dad didn't like going to the Bronx) In Texas 40 years... Former NY-er and former unpopular poster. Blizzard of 1978 my favorite storm. (5 days no school St. Martin of Tours, Amityville, NY) Any red taggers want to visit Texas thread for a once every two decade Winter event and give expert opinion?

Former NY-er and former unpopular poster. Blizzard of 1978 my favorite storm. Any red taggers want to visit Texas thread for a once every two decade Winter event and give expert opinion.

I took my document camera home. My school district doesn't observe Presidents' Day but is giving teachers and students tomorrow off. It is hard to teach math w/o a document camera and I can see my school insisting on a remote day Monday. We were told to bring our computers and materials home.

Houston AFD mentions possibility of not being able to travel from late Sunday into Tuesday. Looking at models, hard to tell if it will be rain, and for how long. 850 mb temps drop pretty quickly Monday morning, so I suspect a rain to sleet to snow event. QPF varies, Euro is over 3/4 inches. GFS a little less, both close on surface temps at the start around 6Z Monday Dallas people will hate 18Z QPF. But ratios should be great.

5 dead at least. The truck drivers who piled in looked like they were going the speed limit. This was well forecast by FWD, I suspect the highway information signs had messages about driving on ice. And people were still driving the speed limit.

Euro 850s are barely above freezing, I no longer have a good PPV model page since WeatherBell jacked my rates, I'd love to see Monday skew-Ts to see how much of the forecast 0.8 inches is sleet or freezing rain in Houston. Half an inch liquid DFW, all snow and 850 mb below -10°C and well below freezing surface, that should fluff well over 10:1.

GFS suggests there is more coming after Monday

Canadian posting is weenie. But my urban school district doesn't celebrate Presidents' Day, and I want the day off near Houston.

GFS and Euro, off and on between runs, sleet or freezing rain Monday late or Tuesday early in Houston. Late Monday/Tuesday could be a day off school...

Mid Atlantic forum poster, IIRC, during intense snowstorms he took walks to experience them up close and personal. Name was 'Jeb', obviously.