Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Might give it time to become a hurricane, but all the heavy rains will be E of metro Houston. Been watching the radar. IMBY may not get much more rain.

HRRR and 18Z 3 km NAM, Houston metro should miss heaviest rains, which seems consistent w/ radar.

Houston area ISDs will not repeat the Imelda students on top of desks in floods, no school tomorrow!!! Whoop!!!!!

Recon center SW of the main convection. 1009 mb, not in a hurry to get organized. HWRF and HMON show slow intensification, both ballpark 990 mb and 50 knots. Decent clustering on track.

Jack Sillin on Twitter noted the Euro forecast PWs over 4 inches are probably not realistic, unrealistic atmospheric moisture, unrealistic QPF. Not that 'a mere' 10 to 15 inches is a picnic.

Recon seems to suggest more than 1 LLC. I assume they'll consolidate under the storms, but it can't get too strong before it does.

Watched Dr. Cowans video, shear should keep this from doing, at best, minimal Cat 1 winds. But TCs w/o big winds (here in Houston) like Harvey, Imelda and Beta have caused issues. GFS wouldn't be as bad as any of those, but might cancel school Tuesday. No snow days down here (we had a week of icy, cold and rolling blackout days in February), so it is usually rain days, and the three named storms all cancelled at least a day of school, Harvey, 2 full weeks/10 days. As did Ike, but I was an oilfield engineer then.

Does Miami have to take a Cat 5 and NYC a 1938 style storm or the season is a disappointment? I think Ida has already made this a significant season, myself.

Looking at the Tropical Tidbits loop (Gulf, 94L centered jumps around), and wonder where the center forms, if it does. Modelling on Ida shifted completely once the models had an actual center to work with. Centers forms a bit E of where expected, land interaction is suddenly less and more time over water on the way to Louisiana. Not an amateur forecast, just speculation.

Tropics are dead. Season cancel.

Anybody got the past 10 day Euro ensembles for 93L?

Looks like more street and urban flooding now than yesterday's run, where the big QPF bullseye was inland between HOU and San Antonio. I wonder when the two cherries get invest tagged, the start of the rain from the Gulf system is only a little over 2 days away, although winds don't seem an issue.

Tropical Tidbits updates faster than AccuWx PPV, but rainfall graphics aren't free. Still, the speed of that little system from 72 hours to 96 hours suggests serious rain issues.

Closer to my house, still not sure based on that the system coming into the Gulf will have a name, but that looks like quite the onshore flow into SETX, where we haven't had a serious tropical wind storm in 13 years, but have had rain issues with Harvey, Imelda and Beta. Dropped WxBell when they raised prices, PPV AccuWx is later than other PPV models services, but cheap.

I think what might be future 93L or 94L (nice Africa wave also), per GFS, almost (not quite) becomes a TD before landfall a bit South of the border. Heavy rain confined to the immediate coast. By immediate, I mean Houston for the entire tropical wave or tropical depression landfall is about 2 inches over several days. Euro still has serious rain, but shifted to E Texas and Louisiana. A few storm total bullseyes over a foot. It doesn't quite get to a depression either. Main issue is rains in Ida areas. 60% 5 day orange now. GaWX wave is a 50/70 cherry. Edit to add HPC QPF

Best I could find. https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/cabo-san-lucas/231823/weather-radar/231823

Euro system is a foot of rain in 4 days for Houston, with an area between here and San Antonio on/near I-10, maybe Columbus or Shiner, exceeding 16 inches. Less than the 2016 Tax Day or 2015 Memorial Day floods, but rivers would probably flood. Enough to keep an eye on.

Eye doesn't look good at the moment on satellite, but it is still closed per Cabo radar, and the Northern eyewall is pulsing w/ cold cloud tops. He may get some eye.

A lot of ECENS like 91L to weakly develop before heading into the Atlantic. Although weaker than 1000 mb, not sure it ever gets a name. Intensity plots also suggest it is not named. The W Carib -> Gulf system GFS had 4 days ago persistently now hugs the South American coast into Central America, and doesn't even make the S BoC with enough time for a spinup before Mexico. MJO looks unfavorable. Not to jinx anything, but with the exception of once every 50 year Jerry type minimal October canes, it doesn't look to become favorable before mean Westerlies have returned. Equinox, the end of the Texas season, passes before anything gets near. October looks interesting on EWP, which has been pretty good all Summer, stuff from the Caribbean may visit the Northern Gulf and Florida in October I'll miss any local excitement this year, but I also keep my electricity.

Only a couple of GEFS disagree, no W Carib threat to the Gulf in a week-10 days, a Beta type school cancelling for a day system would have been fun, but now looks like we survive the Equinox, the unofficial (1940s and Jerry, yes, I know) end of Texas season, a week w/o electricity, no adrenaline this year, but no power sucks. Louisiana to Maine, season still happening.

Looked more annular this morning.

If it does hit Bermuda (I count eyewall, myself, especially for a small island, as a hit), it isn't a fish.

W Car system is so far South it crosses BoC quickly, and doesn't develop.

On topic- 18Z GFS suddenly spins up 91L in 3 days (not a closed low yet). No idea what happens after, 500 mb pattern, it will get swept quickly off the East Coast, I suspect, if it develops much at all. Long Island born (Doria, Belle) and live in Houston (Allison, Rita scare (12 hours no power, MIL lost her fruiting avocado tree, but nothing like expected locally) Ike, Barry (no rain, but winds started serious wildfires W of here), then TS Harvey and Imelda), I lose local interest, because, Freeport in 1940s and Jerry as exceptions, season ends with Equinox, but 1938 was an obsession growing up, Sandy, of course (missed Gloria in the Navy), I stop looking for 10 day storms in 3 weeks, but I'll follow any ECUSA threats all year. Then Nor'Easter season. 1978 alone, 2 school cancelling storms. Still very excited, but no power for 2 weeks after Ike, people at my church dying in Harvey, relatives flooded out by Allison, now more love/hate confliction now.

I can't follow the forecast GFS Gulf system back w/ 850 mb vorticity, I *think*, following PW back, this might be the origin of the system the GFS develops. It reaches the area of higher vort/already high PW (edit- in far S Caribbean/coast SA), merges, and something develops. Looks harmless now.