Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Kate weakened from a Cat 3 (to a strong 2) just before hitting Florida just over a week before Thanksgiving It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.

Not explicit on the model, but I think there is a chance that if a low forms on the cold front that enters the Gulf, it might try to at least go sub-tropical before coming North next weekend or early the week after.

NCEP's EWP MJO forecast worked for me all season, until mid-late September when it suggested a brief inactive phase and then after about 5 October an active Caribbean. It isn't perfect, but newest suggests mid-month things get active again. Edit to add: this would mean the EWP forecast from last week was wrong as well, as it kept the unfavorable phase until almost the end of October. But things might get active again around mid-October

No expert, but non-circular isobars to the S of a low often show where the front it, at the discontinuity. I think that is frontal.

CPC's MJO EWP finally let me down. Worked pretty well all season in predicting active periods, A bit over a week ago it was saying after the first week of October, upward motion would be favorable in the Caribbean and W Atlantic. Latest has pushed that back to mid-month. As far as the boring C- season goes, high end Cat 4 hurricanes, last letter of the standard alphabet left, much of the coast directly or indirectly affected, I'd hate to see an A+ season. I assume Miami and NYC would need direct Cat 5/Cat 4 hits?

6Z GEFS- Southern Gulf/Caribbean infested with members showing a storm with 1000 mb or below pressure a week from tomorrow.

After 10 days, GEFS look interesting for developing in Caribbean and headed to Gulf action.

IIRC, ACE is based strictly on wind speed (squared) and time. Small storms with the same top winds rank w/ large storms of same top winds. IKE, Integrated Kinetic Energy, includes areas affected by winds of various speeds. Harder math, but includes size. I could be wrong.

I didn't save the Tweet, but a couple of days ago someone on Weather Twitter screencapped some news website asking if Sam was going to be the next Sandy. For the laughs and disappointment someone could hype that much. Now that no model brings it close, out of sight, out of mind. That and the eye is warming. Eyewall convection still cold, but the eye itself, pretty meh.

Late in the year for CV storms, especially ones that look like they could effect the Lesser Antilles. Oh, has anyone seen the GFS ensembles?

Just thinking, I remember a decade ago Dr. Neil Frank said when he was head of the NHC, they were less likely to name destined to name short lived mid latitude barely tropical systems like Odette or Teresa. (10 plus years ago, obviously he didn't mention Odette or Teresa by name) 1933, with satellites, might have exceeded 2005. But even knocking a few ugly storms off the last few years, it is getting more active. 3 of the 4 most active seasons of the last 100 years since 2005, something is happening. Probably linked to climate warming, but the polar regions should be warming faster than the tropics, from everything I read, and it can't all be warmer SSTs. And why is the Pacific not responding the same way?

Cool seeing how sonde is rotating around the eye as wind directions shift almost 90 degrees.

6Z GFS has enough members over or West of Bermuda, Sam is not 100% fish. Canadian Hurricane Centre would issue advisories on a post-tropical cyclone, potentially still hurricane force, that might hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, and Sam is nice to look at, although I am getting impatient on a clear eye. Last night bedtime I could've sworn a warm spot was appearing right where it should. And I think after a quiet first few days, October gets active, and they're less likely to fish where there form then.

I think I see a warm spot starting to develop on the IR where one would expect an eye to appear looking at Trop. Tidbits. Have read the posts after I got home from work and seen the guidance, this is obviously probably not an ECUSA threat, or interest may drop, but a classic major hurricane, well, Isabel, I downloaded loops on a 56k phone modem when she was at peak, as I get older, enjoying hurricanes is getting easier.

In the Navy, pre-internet days, heard about Gloria after the fact.

I grew up in Massapequa, remember Doria and Belle as a child. I'm really here for the New York landfall possibilities. If the 240 Euro forecast is still a weak cut off to pull Sam North surrounded by ridging to keep it from escaping East on the 12Z run, I might post in Facebook for my cousins still living up there.

I know only two hurricanes have struck Texas in October in the last century, but now that I see that TS making landfall near BPT, and with warmer than normal SSTs, I'm all in on a Texas landfall as a hurricane Just kidding. But it is possible...

Interesting look, the cut off low from day 9 to 10 is almost stationary but the ridge to its East is building around it. Very interesting.

I can see the 'shouldn't have been named' argument for Odette, but based on late visible yesterday, it was a TC. That it is sheared and exposed now doesn't change how it looked when NHC started advisories last night.

CPC's empirical wave propagation model, is apparently not sophisticated but has been doing a decent job all season of suggesting times of activity and the lack thereof, is suggesting a busy first half of October, systems that develop that time of year have a hard time not affecting land. Been a very active season, 95L storm will be Peter soon, almost every part of the Atlantic and Gulf coast has seen at least some affects of tropical or post-tropical systems, including a high end Cat 4, not sure what people would have done with some of the 1980s seasons. 1992 would have been a snoozer, except Andrew. I guess a season is a bust if we don't use the entire alphabet.

Pretty sure I see clear low cloud movement from W to E, if Odette is a tropical cyclone with multiple exposed LLCs...

The Texas season is winding down. We get the first real cold front (actual temp drop of 10F or more, not just a slight DP drop and wind shift) on the Equinox, at least latest forecast, and plus or minus a week is on schedule. The Westerlies have returned. It'll be hard to get us. 1940s October Cat 2 near Freeport (Nicholas area) and 1989 October half-cane Jerry means it isn't impossible, just it is rather unlikely

I think despite a not super favorable MJO at peak season, with Nicholas and #95L (looking decent), it hasn't been dead. EWP is apparently rather simple, but using it since July, it offers useful hints. It has been fairly consistent, it was suggesting in August that mid-September might be a bit slow (certainly not season cancel slow), and it has been showing October, ever since it forecast that far, as turning favorable. October is Caribbean season, often big ones, like Mitch and Opal, and if they get out of the Caribbean, they are often big time US weather-makers.

Per KPRC story, only gas station in the area (Matagorda) w/ electricity, and they have some of their own issues. Big airport nearby, 28 G38, breezy here with a bit of rain, wind did some dead frond trimming on the palm tree, which isn't a bad thing, but as close as the Heights, inside I-610 loop, some power outages. I see no obvious damage in my neighborhood.