Ed, snow and hurricane fan

What happened to the FIM, a model based off GFS initialization using GFS physics but with a hexagonal grid? I weenied to that 5 or 8 years ago during hurricane seasons.

How many balloons get released 1000 miles offshore?

People noting the ridge over the Pacific and its orientation will influence later events. Just looking at 500 mb GFS forecast, that ridge now W of Oregon will influence what happens. Cut off to the West of that will influence that ridge, which will influence what happens downstream

For a storm of this potential impact, flying a G-IV or even a mid altitude WC-130J mission to gather data over the East Pac might be a good thing.

I just remember when he arrived at WCVB. Grandma lived in North Quincy. I visited a lot. WCVB had a very attractive weekend or morning anchor, last name McGrath. I was 15... Found a pic. Remember, I was only 15

Harvey Leonard was 1 year too late to WCVB for 1978. He must be in his 70s now.

12Z Euro verbatim is about 5F for the mother of all ice storms for Houston, just about there for Austin (near freezing and warmer 850s), and has snow in DFW next weekend. GFS a bit warmer. Weenie wishing a global at 5 days is too warm, or IMBY/Houston is probably a cold rain. But even GFS suggesting Winter fun in North Texas.

OT- I watch reruns of 'Law & Order' from the 90s and 00s. Filmed on location NYC. Half the time, actual snow or snow on the ground in Manhattan. That did not happen in the 1970s when I lived outside NYC, and it doesn't happen now. Is there a grand cycle, some multi-decadal oscillation, or bad decades for snow?

Galveston, on the coast, has done a couple of 3-6 inch snows the last 22 years, but Houston hasn't done much over an inch.

Snow in Houston is more a once or twice a decade thing, if you count dustings. Ice storms (well, freezing drizzle) is more common. If you watched TV of the Colleyville (near Dallas) synagogue hostage situation, you might have seen the snow flurries there. 1970s, I don't know about New England, but Long Island, a few notable exceptions like 1978, almost every cold spell ended with snow changing to rain NYC and points East. R/S line seems to live just North of the Bronx every storm.

There is, or at least was, an OKX met that posted in the NYC forum, but I suspect it isn't good form to work for NHC or SPC and post on a weather forum.

Papin was a regular as a doctoral candidate.

I don't remember the date of the storm last year, but in NYC subforum, HRRR was far too cold for a system that was predicted to stay snow and went to sleet and rain. In related news, Dr. Papin, who used to post on AmWx, posting about ice threat in the Deep South.

14 years ago no tropical cyclone had ever been as far N and E as the Turks and Caicos, and then make landfall in Texas. Analogs are like records, right, made to be broken?

The lowest Euro ensemble mean pressure looks displaced someone East of where I'd eyeball the center point of the individual lows, I think some of the lows that hug the coast may be stronger (baroclinicity between CAD and warm oceans?) and displaces the lowest mean pressure from the average location of the ensemble lows.

Ice on the South Shore of LI is so rare, I am pretty sure I've seen more ice storms in Houston in 20 years than Massapequa in 14. Need a perfect wind direction. DFW can do ice w/o an airmass change over 40F prior day, clouds and low DP are magic.

I don't think I can remember a single big Upstate NY that wasn't LES or w/ LES help. Cities up there don't have much orography and they're too far from the Atlantic for significant ocean effect.

6 inches an hour for 5 hours sounds like LES to me.

He has his NOAA and Navy pensions. But yes, he could absolutely do the John Hope/Neil Frank thing and go into television weather. He wrote the pre-landfall in Texas Ike advisory just weeks after returning to NHC from rehab for an IED injury in Iraq that nearly cost him his leg. He volunteered for combat duty in the Navy reserve, his prior reserve duty, IIRC, was 2 weeks at the JTWC each year.

Is someone with PPV radar starting the nowcast/obs thread soon?

Cold and snow, no monster storms I remember, unlike 77-78, but 76-77 had snow and serious cold, below zero on Long Island. I delivered the Daily News as a kid then.

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over. But even when Texas hurricane season is over, the tropics still influence the weather.

Not quite a 1994 East Pac Hurricane Rosa's mid-level center crossing over a very shallow cold air mass with flow off the Gulf just off the surface and raining so much the San Jacinto river in Houston gouged itself deep enough to uncover and rupture gasoline and diesel pipelines and set the river on fire, but SW flow is bringing Pamela's remnants up along a stationary boundary with seasonably high 60s/low 70s dewpoints ahead of it, prompting WPC to put the areas near and W of I-35 in a Moderate Risk for excessive flooding with 5-7 inch rain totals. One picture is the San Jacinto river on fire, the other is the stationary front the ML center of Pam should track over.

Op GFS maybe tries to develop something in a week, but it gets stuck over Central America then the Yucatan. A few of the GEFS do like that for development,

NHC had Pamela landfalling as a Major. Doesn't seem likely.