Ed, snow and hurricane fan

9 NS, 4 H 1 M

I suspect the reason Texas has never had a Cat 5 is not a shallow subsurface meaning very low OHC, I think it is strong storms would start entraining downsloping air off the Chihuahuan desert highlands. If not for that, SSTs would support more than Cat 4. (Now, if things like the Gulf's average SST's do rise w/ climate change, maybe not even dry air could stop a smaller storm, but I wonder if warmer SSTs would cause warmer upper level temps with time, keeping instability from rising as quickly)

Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity. A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes. I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed.

Euro still has a sheared, battling dry air cyclone or attempt at a cyclone forming from the remnants of an EPAC cyclone.

Watched Seminole live on the Ryan Hall Y'all YouTube, weird tornado, very large, but with what looked like a lot of fairly widely spaced suction vortices, and I could see through the tornado between the vortices. It was doing damage, I saw power flashes, another chaser video, he or she was within a couple of hundred feet of power flashes and flying debris, or near/inside the circulation, but the wind at his position seemed weak. Tornado tourism after dark, the Cloud 9 van, besides not being safe, how much do the customers see in the dark in open country in heavy rain?

So close, but Dr. Knabb mentioned Wednesday the then Plain tornado maker mid-upper low, now into the Ohio Valley/East, may get trapped and form an STC. GEFS not totally hostile to that idea.

I am seeing mention of 2007, another cold ENSO season, high ACE but a lot of storms that run almost due West in the Caribbean/

Not as dry this month as 2011, when I learned what I thought was a live oak was a water oak, and when the dry side (I can't remember if TS Lee was one sided because of shear, dry air, probably both) downed power lines that started the Bastrop fire that destroyed 1600 rural homes. OT- Bastrop is named for the Compte de Bastrop, who was a Dutch born conman passing himself off as a French nobleman in Texas.

Twitter starting to mention Monday.

SPC used to have 'Cool Images', one was Mexican free tail bats being ingested by a tornadic supercell crossing the river. Almost nobody lives out there (not many in parts of Texas like Balmorrhea, closer to New Mexico than Mexico, but also a desert town once hit by a tornado), but if they did, we'd have chaser images, I am sure.

Screaming eagle cell in Coahuila. I wonder if it is warned.

I teach high school math now since my last lay off, I'd have been laid off again for COVID. On topic, -8 LIs, 40 knot deep shear (SPC meso discussion, straight hodos, wish TwisterData had TTs) but still a bit of cap in San Antonio.

Watch out. Day of my Engineering Economics final in May 1994, no hail on campus/downtown Austin, hanging out after test, I was enjoying actually seeing clouds bubbling up like a time lapse. Movie that weekend in NW Austin, parking lot still full of automotive glass. Not everyone knows about 'Monte Carlo' simulation, but in the oilfield, we generate a range of possible NPVs for a project, with a 10%, mean and 90% NPV. Lot of unknowns in engineering, and in prices of oil. Lot of beer in college on Friday or Saturday nights. (Not both, engineers have to study)

Preliminary EF-3 in Salado, track length 13.1 miles plus however far it travelled in Williamson County. Fort Hood tornado EF-?, they don't have access, Seaton tornado in Bell County EF-0

TN and MO are in the TN Valley subforum. An undescribed division in Mississippi splits that state between SE US and Tennessee Valley. The Moderate Risk area is, for now, underperforming, which I assume most people who live in it prefer.

Showers forming NW side (just outside Beltway 8) in Houston area, they are struggling but may have a lightning bolt or two. Lone cell just missing CLL looks decent, not warned, but maybe by the time its gets to I-45 near Madisonville. Looks like a trough, winds shifted SW and clearing driving local HOU area showers and lone CLL storm cell, but a narrow sector of high dewpoints even w/ windshift, with the front catching it. CLL is in the narrow sector between the trough/wind shift to SW and actual front.

Backbuilding to the SW. Missed the Metroplex and Waco, Navarro County could go severe warned anytime Kaufman, Van Zandt, (named for the Lynryd Sknyrd singer) warned. Not backbuilt enough to get CLL yet, but has a chance.

3 pm CDT SREF SigTor...

Just a smidge too late for Dallas judging by radar. Waco has a chance.

Back in Texas, there is clearing ahead of the actual front, SPC RAP based meso seems to confirm that line is the front. MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg, bulk shear 30 knots or higher N of I-10 (not a perfect description, more of a WSW-ENE orientation, CLL >30 knots, HOU not.) SPC analysis showing just a small area between the front and the clouds where CINH is below -25 k/Kg, is isn't even 10:30 solar time, HRRR is developing some storms later this afternoon, none look severe. Arkansas and Mississippi, different, but not my subforum. But the its seems severe happens here more often when the risk is low or none per SPC. HRRR, judging by updraft helcity, sees nothing in Texas. Marginal risk still on updated SWODY1 may mean the cap holds, even where there is clearing. But marginal may be low enough...

Williamson County tor warned storm, as seen on Twitter, has 'the look'/

Thunderstorms developing near LRD, where, theoretically, the cap should be stronger than almost anywhere else in Texas. Might even be hail near Hebbronville Not seeing it on 12Z/14Z guidance, the disturbance is clear on satellite, but I think Monterrey is the only RAOB site in that part of Mexico and the SW looks mostly N of there.. Edit to Add: NWS CRP has a special weather statement for small hail and 40 mph winds. Another edit: