Ed, snow and hurricane fan

IAH Houston got to 98*, DW Hooks (I live between) got to 101*, before the late afternoon seabreeze storms. They weren't that heavy, IAH reported 0.01 inches. my house, I'd guess a quarter to a half inch. 0.13 inches to date at IAH for June, my house has done a little better. 98* and 101* are no way to run a cold front. But it could have been worse.

40% is generous. Its a mess. SW shear is not letting up. Edit to add recon data. Still a mess.

95^ so far in Houston. Edit- high was 97* Blue sky. Hoping 95L rains on us tomorrow night and Thursday.

I see 2 LLCs, but storms NW of the more prominent LLC are building towards the LLC. If they get there, this could be a TD by morning. Sooner it develops, the better the chance of being named. I still don't see any models that would make this a hurricane. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=vis

I don't think there is a model that even gets this to TS strength, but with a 2011 style month long wildfires destroying thousands of homes type summer in progress, a nice little TD with 1 to 3 inches of rain on my yard and the nearby pine forests would be a good thing. The strongest Euro ensemble gets 95L to 1005 mb. That is borderline nameable. 1986, decaying June cold front produced a Cat 1 Bonnie that made landfall E of Houston, maybe get a minimal TS Bonnie sort of repeat that although nowhere near as strong.

Hugely track dependent. 50 or 100 miles further North than forecast in 2 or 3 days would be big intensity wise, although I'd note ECENS, hurricane models except HWRF (bit more offshore and Cat 2), GEFS and GEPS are remarkably clustered and support the NHC track of this hugging the coast of S America.

I see SW winds to the SE of the main convective blob, but I don't see NW or W winds in the low cloud motion, satellite alone, I'd guess a sharp trough, not a closed low/

Bonnie, as a name, has been around at least since the Reagan era. DSHIP using TABM steering keeps 94L in check in much of the Caribbean (proximity to South America), but HWRF is starting to intensify it before the end of the run. Too early to call on another 2028 Bonnie, I'd say.

99* at 6 pm, high was 100* in Houston, Breeze made it bearable in Galveston, even if the water temp is in the upper 80s. NWS HGX, 50% rain tomorrow and only 95* Have I mentioned one actually gets chilly coming out of the water when its breezy? I had one ~2 foot shark to the beach, he was hooked, but came off. A couple of other good bites, but zero fish caught,

DMIN did a job on it yesterday, DMAX did its magic, looks a little better now than this time yesterday, I guess the trend is in the right direction. I don't see an ensemble model , not even CMC ensembles, that aren't pretty tightly clustered with most aimed at Nicaragua.

101* yesterday at Houston/Bush Intercontinental. but NHC has 50% rain probs tomorrow, highest in forever. Today's forecast is 100*, tomorrow only 93* with the clouds/chance of rain.

An occasional Euro or GFS has suggested the inverted trough trying to become a weak TC or STC the last few days, today, the op GFS showing what would be a good thing, a weak system. The rain is needed.

Too soon prediction based on the more reliable Euro, GFS and their ensembles, most likely final landfall will be in NIcaragua.

Moderately interesting out 10 days. Multiple models and their ensembles. The lead wave tries to organize in the SW Caribbean but runs out of time, the wave after, most models run it into CA as well, but enough ensembles further North that a Yucatan system early July isn't impossible. And late June, not impossible isn't bad.

High based but decent TCU around Houston. Very little on radar, but while out watering, I could see planes on final to IAH briefly being partially obscured by the virga. OT, Using the word 'virga' in predominantly Hispanic class rooms will make most of the students snicker. It sounds like the Spanish slang word for the phallus.

Sort of to be expected when SSTs are at near normal August levels.

Euro lost the Caribbean system, although an inverted trough that gets stuck under the STR and comes back across the Gulf with 2.4" PWATS day 10 would be sweet locally for the developing drought in Texas. Edit- the wave is still there, it just doesn't develop and is hitting Central America Day 10

0Z Euro still sees a system in the Caribbean, and various ECENS are still liking either the op system or one a few days behind. Nothing obvious on the GFS. Re: 2011- one of two unpleasant years retired met Larry Cosgrove is using for this season. 2011 was the year the dry side of sheared TS Lee downed powerlines around E Texas, one of which started the month long Bastrop wildfire, which destroyed almost 2000 homes in a fairly rural county. Fires that year in the hills just W of Austin, which may be developed now due to the rapid growth of the city, and all around Possum Kingdom Lake. Add a few storms, but follow the pattern, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth in the various East Coast forums about all the 'fish'.

First 100*F of the season at IAH. Proximity to the Gulf has its benefits. It never reached 100*F last warm season.

Looks like some ECENS prefer one wave, others prefer the next one behind. There is vorticity (not a lot of storms) on a wave near the CV. I'm guessing that is the lead wave some of the ECENS like. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

2 runs of the Euro op have had a very significant looking wave with 850 mb vorticity and nice PWAT entering the E Caribbean at the end of the run, Has some ECENS support.

Galveston broke a June minimum low temperature record today, they didn't go below 85*F.

18Z GFS quite similar to 12Z GFS. First GFS system I think has a chance...

Most Euro ensembles seem to agree with Op Euro too far S for significant development, but the GFS is not exactly on an island.

The ridge on the Euro keeps the vorticity in the Caribbean far enough S it runs into Central America without developing, op GFS takes it near MX/Belize border near major hurricane strength, but keeps what remains deep in the BoC. I wouldn't mind a TS, I'm watering the foundation. Even a Cat 2, and I'm 50 miles inland, kills power, and that would be bad. I'm fat, 58, and w/o CPAP, I'd be sleeping on my side, snoring, and waking up with a sore throat. In a hot bedroom. But a TS, if it doesn't Allison (my house, water right up to the door, but wife's primos and abuelos, carpet ripping and dry well stripping, not fun. And I was a lot younger then. 1st ETOH beverage into NASCAR race. Hurricane Dolly, in the day, landfall in SPI and still nice rains here. Not sure how to break the drought this late in June w/o a TC. Sea breeze is not overcoming the ridge so far this year.