Ed, snow and hurricane fan

On the Texas subforum, DFW has broken their all time max minimum and all time average daily temperature record. Houston is breaking records from 1980, the benchmark year (along w/ 2011) for heat. I still lived up North in 1980, I remember all the 2011 wildfires rather well. I hope the monsoon helps Phoenix. There is nothing short term to help Texas, except maybe the tropics, and the same ridge that drives record heat deflects any TCs away from Texas. Although Allen, landfall on the border, did interrupt the Texas heatwave in 1980.

With September 10 the peak. I was NOT agreeing with the LDub season cancel theme.

NWS HGX has a 30% chance of much needed rain from a weak disturbance under the ridge coming from Louisiana. 100*F in Houston moved us to #5 on list of 100*F days in a Summer, we just got back from 2 days in San Antonio, they are already #3 on their list of 100* days. IAH forecast under 100 today.

Op Euro has a decent looking disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean with some ensemble support in 10 days. Euro/ensembles on an island for now, but that can change Ensemble GFS MJO forecast is decent looking for action, heading into phase 1 then phase 2, empirical MJO from CPC page continues to suggest a favorable pattern beginning in August. Oh, I doubt a trough stays locked in to one place over the East Coast the entire month of September. Mid-August might suggests something in the Caribbean or Gulf, if one is hanging a hat on the CFS. Too soon to give up.

Gulf coast of Florida indeed. Right now the STR is keeping anything that would form from reaching the Gulf, but late September and October, when the Westerlies are usually in the Western Gulf, I wouldn't expect the abnormally warm Gulf to have cooled much. Big storms immediate Tampa area are rare, but this seems like the type of year that could do it. But anywhere in the Eastern GOMEX will be at risk in October.

IAH got down to 80*F again. Usually, while our highs don't match DFW, our lows do. Y'all are closer to the center of the ridge. We made 100*F again yesterday, but dewpoints mixed down into the 60s at peak heating, similar today, no heat advisory (IAH standard, 108*F temp/dewpoint heat index)

We had a freeze in Houston this year, my bananas died, but I have seen banana bunches in my neighborhood. It takes bananas more than a year to make fruit. Some bananas lived. My bananas didn't actually die, the roots survived the 2021 3 days below freezing. They spread via roots as well, they spread like crazy. Bit like bamboo in Austin. Austin says no more bamboo, because they spread like crazy. But they are now everywhere.

My wife and I are going to San Antonio this week on the Riverwalk, $400 for 2 days. $225 after a hurricane seems reasonable. She is back to work August 1, I am back August 9th. Two weeks no school for Ike, a week no school for the 'Tax Day Floods', 2 weeks no school for Harvey, and a week no school for the 2021 3 days in a row below freezing/burst pipes/rolling blackouts. TEA (Texas Education Authority) said we didn't have to work late into June for Harvey or the Freeze, we did have to make up a week for Harvey.

It's July 17th. If you want to buckle down on what ECONUS mid-level flow will be like on August 17th from what it looks like today, least I remind folks that 2004 saw a very similar pattern in July during a -ENSO. Even our first major hurricane got hooked right into a strong mid-August trough. Then the pattern flipped and all hell broke loose. Interestingly, there was a pretty active June-July in the EPAC that year even with a -ENSO in place. Of course, again, it shut down and an epic WAR/AMO took over by August 31st. That does not mean we'll see a similar outcome, but clearly NINO 4 is bottoming out again and +PNA ridging may not last until the end of Summer. I think the Euro beginning of July ASO forecast of the trough retrograding into the Ohio Valley, which higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes, what Ldub mentioned as Joe Bastardi's "Newfoundland Wheel" looks pretty reasonable. Thinking the mean East Coast trough that would steer anything out to sea will persist for six weeks or more seems optimistic or pessimistic, depending on whether wants a real chance at a possible major hurricane hit on the ECUSA. As a kid in Massapequa, I was disappointed by Belle, but as an adult thinking a major into the ECUSA is bad for everybody. Sandy was close to worst case on track, but not intensity. Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_New_York_hurricane

Be interesting to see who/which is right, retired met Larry Cosgrove, later than normal start to MDR season because of global pattern/sinking air/SAL, and empirical MJO forecast, which was very useful last year in predicting active periods, for all the active periods, except the active October period forecast a couple of weeks out that disappeared as go time approached. But Empirical MJO says end of July/beginning of August. I don't know what everything in this Twitter thread means, but sounds like Euro sees a favorable state coming as well.

High only 98*F in Houston, storms are sticking to the coast, something will have to develop soon if Houston metro is to get rain, but the SW coastal counties are in a more severe drought state than the metro.

via Google, who is he (she?) https://www.ventusky.com/

Just trying to cheer someone up who has given up on the season. The 3 NS in mid-July is actually more active than normal. And forecast pattern looks favorable for a Mid-Atlantic (where Ldub lives) landfall in September. He can have them, I'm cheering for the now 5 day 20% lemon and the W outliers, we need the rain. 2008 Ike was great fun, but I'm older, fatter, and use a CPAP (something old fat people need) and a week w/o AC and CPAP, I don't really need it.

10/30 not very organized lemon has a scheduled 1800Z invest tomorrow, I assume due to locality to the coast, I wouldn't be surprised if it it cancelled. Looking at CIMMS, the blob S of Louisiana has the more favorable shear and convergence/divergence, but vorticity is E of the blog, with S and SW winds W of bigger blob apparent in low clouds, it isn't organizing quickly, at least not yet.

Cheer up. Retired met Larry Cosgrove thinks the numbers won't quite match the CSU forecast, he thinks August MDR season starts a bit late. But he seems to agree the late August/September 500 mb pattern is somewhat favorable for ECUSA landfalls. Euro ASO 500 mb pattern (see prior post) supports that. Empirical MJO forecast (which worked well all season until it didn't last October) shows a favorable pattern approaching the basin the end of July. Bit early for season cancel.

Someone on Twitter posted the ICON, a 994 mb strong TS/minimal hurricane into the Florida Big Bend. The ICON is the new Canadian?

103*F at IAH broke the daily record from 1980.

Although pretty much the entire world has above normal 500 mb heights, relatively, the mean trough is up and down the Mississippi, with blocking high pressure off the NE Coast. If the mean trough is where the Euro ASO forecast is predicted to be, the East Coast looks to be in play for MDR storms that miss the mid-Atlantic trough or form too far West. That, and by late August, passing Northern stream troughs will mean the actual heights in any position may not match the mean heights, even if the height anomalies are perfectly forecast. ETA on apparently global above normal heights- not sure if this is a model issue or related seem to be warmer global temps. Places in Canada and Norway are breaking all time heat records. 105*F in Houston yesterday, a daily record.

It actually rained here.

Lightning, with distant thunder, quite windy. Not a cool wind. A very hot wind.

Still 104*F in Houston, and the drought is getting worse. 50 miles inland, I wouldn't fear even a high end TS. Couple of ECENs members are as far West as here, but are outliers. I don't think the most likely area if something develops (Eastern LA to the Panhandle) are in a drought. IAH now tying and breaking 1980 records, and if anyone remembers 1980 in Texas, that was a bad year.

104*F at the big airport in Houston. Been bouncing between 103 and 104 the last 4 hours, distant thunderstorms visible to the NE, not headed this way. I don't know if a temp higher than 104*F was reached today between hours, Tied a 1980 record yesterday, broke a 1998 record by at least 3 degrees today. Will challenge another 1980 record tomorrow. A couple of 12Z ECENS outliers get a TS to Houston next weekend, but there are clustered Central or Eastern Gulf. Op TS is MS/AL state line (slow mover) next weekend. EDIT TO ADD- 105^F daily high.

Forecast IAH highs at least 100*F until Tuesday, 99*F. A seabreeze storm over downtown HOU limited the high at IAH yesterday to 98*F. No rain, but an extensive anvil that shaded my house. HGX mentionong excessive heat warnings possible this weekend for CLL (B/CS) area, neighboring FWD counties already have them, Dewpoint 76*F at 10 am. Not a dry heat.

Been 40 years since I lived in Massapequa, most LILCO lines were above ground on poles. Have they buried some, or would a big hurricane still knock out power for potentially millions for a week or more?

Rainstorm was the one who used to post surface pressure forecast maps from the FSU experimental cyclone genesis model page to 'prove' no storms could affect the US? Retired met Larry Cosgrove, who predicted the routine 100*F+ temps last month (warmest June on record) and continuing in Houston before it happened thinks position of ridging/SAL delays the start of the MDR season enough that CSU will bust high (but still above average season), but thinks September, while not that favorable for systems making the Gulf, has potential for East Coast landfalls.