Ed, snow and hurricane fan

98L finally has convection over the LLC although most of the storms are E of there. It could have made it to a TS if it had an extrea 12-24 hours.

12Z GFS at t96, if I were NHC, would trigger a non-zero 5 days lemon. I don't work, of course, for NHC This may make TS/STS irrevelant, it is close to low Cat 1 pressure.

IIRC, Colin developed from a front that caused a 30% lemon, I think a 40% orange, off Louisiana. Deja vu all over again.

Fjords and pining. Last post on a thread only I ever posted on?

Second thought, I don't want a problem with a troll pro-met OT- was DT a degreed met? He seems gone, although I see quotes off his Facebook on Twitter.

If @forkyforkwas in either a severe or extreme or exceptional drought, he'd welcome a nothing burger TD or minimum TS. The rain even from a non-tropical system that tried and failed to be a TC is going to be a good thing. Not Metfan/Ant weenie, but I am on the Weenie Spectrum.

Waves that don't develop until approaching or in the Caribbean are a lot more likely to make landfall, and I can think of recent RI Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricanes hitting Texas and Florida. Oh, Louisiana as well. My 'second regional' forum, NYC/Long Island (Catholic school and desire for snow) certainly remembers Ida

Subtle differences between GEFS, Canadian ensembles and ECENS that are incredibly subtle to anyone, but difference between Matagorda or Padre Island is big for my lawn. Dark sky, storm SW of us drifting SW has an anvil blowing slowly NE, or cyclonic flow under a weak anticyclone. Satellite/radar confirms the sensible weather of a storm moving away but anvil being pushed towards us.

The new invest thread is here.

98L is the rare 10% invest. I think high ends is a weak TS, a TD would help South Texas which is in dangerous drought and which will likely see wildfires. SHIPS 25 knots seems about right unless it starts further East. (SHIPS before landfall, post landfall, not land SHIPS was 27 knots...

If I was post limited I would have saved this post. I see you, I know the season looks like it will not start before very end of August, and may not be superactive. GaWx or somebody posted about a third year Nina. Late start and over 100 ACE still possible, especially with Gulf and Caribbean in October. Bummed, can't log in work Google account... ETA- if I were a degreed meteorologist and had a social media following, I'd have done 10/20 mainly because of ensembles. I did post that, with a shortened Storm2K 'take this with a grain or 18 of salt' on Twitter just after 7. 10% lemon with an invest tag, that is rare...

Actual airmass change didn't happen. SE winds, dewpoints in mid-70s all day, a thunderstorm stopped IAH from passing 95*F

I'm guessing death due to cold, especially for people with limited resources, and increased accidents on icy roads, at least some years, the cold kills more (USA). I could Google but it is bed time, but 2005, I'd guess the tropics 'won' that year. In the Western Hemisphere, I suspect Haiti and various Central American nations, which routinely lose hundred or even thousands to TC flooding, I suspect TCs 'win' a lot. Mitch killed almost 20,000...

2007 Humberto, weak Nino, formed off a front, went from only weenie models (NAM and Canadian) seeing it, to a TD in under a day, and was a 70 knot hurricane half a day later. BPT area was under a hurricane warning for 2 hours before landfall. *Franklin, the forecaster, not the storm, is friendly to amateurs like me, he was the one who said 2 hours of warning. The weenie model part, I remember that myself. EDIT, no 7 pm "Lemon". I kinda expected one.

KHOU version of a high res model simulated radar suggests a TD landfall near CRP. It wasn't the 18Z 3 km NAM, but that is close to whatever this model shows. Except 3 km NAM looks just a bit too disorganized to be a classified TC before landfall. No idea if KHOU was using a different NCEP high-res model or private version that *I think* runs something based on WRF NMM or ARW.

My memory of significant Gulf development from a non-tropical system, maybe 1997 and 1983 biased, a warm ENSO is involved. A cold ENSO but an active EPAC/dead ATL, this feels like a Nino year, or a non-tropical origin TC would sort of fit.

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

4 12Z ECENS have a TD/TS (one 993 mb, a Cat 1 hurricane???) 4/50 glass half full. 'Home brew'.

Ike was sort of adventure, a friend from work lent me a revolver in case of looters, I cooked meet out of plastic ice filled and blue freezer filled thingies, and day after the storm, my wife took the kids to AUS where her brother lives. I read paperback books until it got too dark, I had Catholic votive candles as bathroom night light, and BBQs or ate canned food until electricity was finally back. I *think* I had running water only because I don't remember flushing toilets w/bathtub water. It was sort of a vacation although no going to my wife's grandparents beach place on Galveston Island Summer 2009 because it didn't exist that year was no fun. And the 2021 freeze, painfully reminded as an overweight 58 year old, no electricity means no CPAP, it isn't just snoring, it impacts my sleep. Generac isn't in the budget for a prolonged outage that is a once a decade event. And posted pages back, support for an active Gulf in October on NMME, if verifies, means a US MH landfall is almost a probability. Edit- meet/meat error...

I was old enough to be an adult working offshore Louisiana, hired in 1997. 56 k phone modem for CSU/Gray seasonal forecast. ENSO long range forecasting just wasn't good. Above average season predicted, 0 NS in August. D storm (Danny!) by July, including a US Cat 1 landfall, dead after. If weenies survived 1997, they'll survive 2022. I never made a hurricane rig evacuation.

18Z ICON has a 1006 mb TD/TS making landfall near Houston. Pre-frontal trough over water and light shear. Zero support from ECENS, one 12Z GFS perturbation supports a weak TC. 1 of 30, glass 3.3% glass full on 'home brew'. OT, my house in N. Houston, first eyeball estimated severe t-storm of 2022. NWS upgrade svr to tornado, but my house should not have been in that polygon. 2 inches general rain, more than combined June/July rain, maybe we move down a drought category. 2011 and wildfires, thousands of homes in mostly rural areas burned, severe dead in the various fires. Fires W of AUS 11 years ago would be in areas the city has expanded into.

Eyeball tree swaying, semi-calibrated to obs in past episodes, may have had the first severe t-storm of 2022 in HOU. Was under a t-storm, later upgraded to a tornado warning (based on rotation on radar and storm movement, my house should NOT have been in the polygon), a minute or two no power during a storm, and then a few more minutes over an hour later when it was light rain and occasional thunder, maybe repairs near where power failed. 1960 and TX249 lost power for a prolonged period when my wife was helping my son buy football gear. (He'll have close to an associates degree of AP and Dual Credit classes, but wants a football scholarship, but unless it is Rice, he isn't big enough for OL/TE) 18Z ICON actually spins up a 1006 mb TC landfalling in Houston in 4 1/2 days, no reliable models support, including GEFS and ECENS.

No WiFi during a severe, then tornado warned storm after power failed (When I married, I gave up the NOAA wx radio for my wife, and the tor warning area should NOT have concluded my neighborhood) storm with power. Back. 18Z ICON is official model support for old school WxBell Joe Bastardi "home brew warning'. 1006 mb storm, probably named (Danielle, I can see it again in 2028) @ldub23is daily post limited, and I know the ICON is a bit Canadian in the tropics, but... Glass 1/64th full.

You are glass half empty. The pre-season forecasts are going to bust on NS, but I can see multiple MH landfalling the US in October. And if a negative tilt trough can capture Hurricane Sandy a week before Halloween, it can get the Mid Atlantic as well. Hurricane season ends here on the Equinox, 1989 was a sad Jerry, 1949, however, EPac TC crossed the Gulf and hit near Freeport (closer to HOU than CRP) as a high end Cat 2. So even Texas isn't 100% dead in 6 weeks, just 98% dead.

It might actually rain at my house in Houston after 2+months of 2011 heat/drought. I'm back to work, can't look at every model, but haven't seen any model support. But front in the Gulf and light shear. Probably not the last August front, which bring only a DP drop and no cool air/high winds to rob OHC