Ed, snow and hurricane fan

That has trouble written all over it for almost any US landfall location with a ridge (banana ridge, IIRC is what Bastardi used to call it ( @ldub23)) over the top. Could be enough weakness in the ridge there with the trough North of it, from that location, this is a ECUSA threat or a near miss. (What the GFS is showing in 'Silly Season' range) No need to either respond or PM me that one run at extended time, may be off significantly.

Or more than 1 competing center Fujiwara-ing around a mean center of circulation, the weaker one getting closer to the stronger one until it is absorbed. A K and I storm, give or take a letter, one was a hurricane, one was a TS, Fujiwara with the stronger one shearing the weaker one, until they became one. My Google Fu is off on the names and year. I think it is what happens when competing LLCs are present until one center becomes dominant. The stronger one moves less, MLC location is important as well, land disruption (Guadalupe or one of the small volcanic islands) of Dorian destroyed the LLC and allowed the weak LLC under the MLC to become dominant, accelerating the intensification process.

The days I wish I could still upload meme gifs....

It looks like the plane should fly in, I suspect they'll find either a TD or NHC will PTC it to issue watches for Mexico, but the hurricane models are not impressed. If this goes Humberto before hitting Tampico (give or take), at this point, it would be a good demonstration of models needing improvement. Looking at SHIPS and wondering why things are all zero or negative on intensity

In the all important closer to MBY to kill the drought in two cold fronts and one TC, trends are favorable. In the modeled intensities, models are even less impressed than yesterday.

Not only are the GEFS and ECENS active in 10 days, they look similar to each other in location and relative number of members, op Euro 10 day big ticket isn't recurving immediately.

Genuine DFW style severe storm in my part of Houston. Tree damage, ominous when it was moving in, non-stop lightning. Winds was moving my car at stop lights. Seabreeze storms to the S I could see as the big show moved in from the North, honest to goodness striated storm, I got home, a funnel was reported near LaPorte. Still picture on TV, it could have been scud. But the stuff that only happens in the Plains, and a striated sea breeze storm? The front here is from the North with the front.

I'm not feeling it except as 98L all over again, but from the tropics and thus coming from a different direction to move quickly inland. SHIPs likes it a bit more than 98L, maybe it gets a number, maybe even makes sure Danielle returns in 2028. No rain at all from my yard, but another August front forecast by GFS means drops 2 inches by Tuesday night. Not a drought buster, the front. It might be feeding moisture to the remnant front later in the week, but the direct rains looks like they stay South of the Border.

I used to try to track forecast systems backwards with 850 mb vorticity to try to see the current satellite, and they'd often come from elongated vorticity that seemed to be the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Sometimes maybe a small wave moved into that on the NE South American coast a few days earlier and the timing could have been right. I'll need a real SW Caribbean/Gulf developer to see if this really does get modelled, but I think it isn't always spurious

I don't know why EPac was so busy for so long, but even with a cool ENSO I am pretty sure just the outflow from the never ending systems kept the Caribbean quiet. How the dry air and associated high is so entrenched over the EATL into the MDR, I have no clue. But everything seems so Ninoish in a cool year.

Super Nino dead year. This year, Cold ENSO year that seems to be acting like a warm once. Last HGX CWA major.

18Z GEFS/ECENS look like they are backing off from the BoC lemon. It was, before, at best, a low end TS, now it looks like the high end is an Invest. Just one set of ensembles, but it looks like it is LWing...

A few Euro ensembles, by location and timing, may be supporting Op GFS on the Gulf system. Not a ton of support, but...

This will get me weenie tagged by Forky, and there is an element of wishcasting, I need the rain (Texas), but 5 day lemon maybe, by satellite, a smidge East of where models were initialized. WxNerds pic

Ensembles versus Op, I always wonder if resolution makes a difference. AccuWeather had the control ensemble versus the op for the Euro, same initial conditions, and by 5 or 6 days, the resolution changes thing. AccuWeather still probably has the control run and the Op In the day, JB asserted the 10 year ago GFS versus the Euro, the 10 year old GFS had a poleward bias. GFS guidance, which NHC followed for a couple of days, 2008 Ike was going to recurve East of Florida.

I am actually wondering, based on mostly >1005 mb ensemble members, why they didn't wait on the lemon since it'll be over land (or barely catch some water N of Honduras) soon and won't develop before the BoC. It has the 'right' look to it though when I loop it but they could have waited a day or two.

12 days out 10 day Euro made it clear Sandy was not going to escape. People still talk about that, because there are few other 240 hour home run model runs Euro appears to have been adjusted in 10 years, it is no longer the best model in the tropics. GFS sees tropical systems earlier... Edit to Add: Mongo is just a pawn on this forum, but beyond 240 hour op models to prove the basin is dead posts should just be disappeared by a mod. If LW wants to prove dead at 282 or 330, he or she should at least be using ensemble spaghetti unless he or she wants to prove every storm will fish, ensemble means are better for me at 500 mb..

Mali and Senegal has RAOB stations, but it is bit like following a storm still over the Pacific, most of the data is remote gathered (and African surface obs), with initialization filling in gaps with prior run 6 hour forecast ( I think. Be gentle if I'm wrong). Mali wave 'looks' good on the satellite.

Early season end idea. First, for background, the Texas season ends right about on the Equinox. Season over, its done. Except Jerry in 1989, wimpy storm. Or 1949, East Pac storm pulled into the Gulf, Freeport, Texas, as a strengthening Cat 2 and a few more hours over water, a major. Part of the reason Texas season ends, (except for once every 50 years or so when it doesn't) is Westerlies at mid levels. Nothing about an East Coast trough means the Caribbean can't be active, any storm moving N into the Gulf usually gets turned N, then NE. Once in the Gulf, a landfall somewhere is guaranteed. Your East Coast trough will sometimes move out and reform, not always in the exact same place and shortwaves riding over from the ridge to its W may deepen it to a negative trough, so storms that pass over or East of Cuba can do some variation of Sandy, including Virginia Beach. Caribbean to SW Gulf Lemon, GFS and Euro see it, not big ticket because it hits Mexico or Deep South Texas before it can strengthen much. But 2 days of nothing and another Lemon?

Op Euro, I see a potential Gulf system of tropical origin that with a slight change in initial location and direction would probably develop and a 9-10 day system *probably* 2 far North to crush Norfolk, VA (or anywhere in North America), but that is 10 days away. Do you like to be depressing? Do you think if you always say nothing "good" is coming you've protected yourself from disappointment? It is the opposite of posting a rando ensemble member is hitting Miami as a Cat 5, except it really isn't. The rando ensemble member or ICON poster would be more interesting...

Looking at ensembles, is it between the GFS and Euro, as far as ensembles go, as far as deciding a low should appear or not. GEFS on Weathernerds will show obvious non-tropical lows inland, ECENS seem better screened for non-tropical lows. Nothing on Weathernerds says only TC lows, but ECENS show only tropical lows. 18Z GFS, still a boatload of enesembles showing the low, none on the Euro ensembles. See T=6 (labelled as hour zero, I read the legend wrong. Edit- no, I read one, and the default first display seems different, or WxN defaults to show color page) for 12Z, but same on 18Z, GEFS have lows over Wisconsin which are obviously not tropical. Model, WxNers website, no se. I've noticed, but with a low that looks frontal on MSLP on the models, it sort of matters comparing the two major model ensembles.

Unofficial TD May get reviewed post season, depending, probably, whether NHC has their @ldub23 3/0/0 season or there are landfalling majors, (more than one if the storms don't run over reduced OHC from a prior major) in October. This is a cyclone that might be interesting as a compare and contrast to Humberto, but was a drought relieving (not curing) nothing burger, if the post season review season isn't too busy. I know they do post-season tropical storm upgrades, they may just not do post-season TD analysis on something not already numbered. )hanks to the pro-met who seems to exist only as a troll weenie tagged me for what had a 35 knot ceiling which I clearly mentioned original post. If hoping for rain is 'Weenie', maybe. I am a weenie, if you are on this board only for OT and politics forum, maybe you aren't. But you aren't reading this unless you're mentioned and someone tells you... The pro-mets (one pro-met here, and JB excluded) started as weenies, still like Cat 5s if they miss land, but keep it real as a professional obligation. JB and a forum degreed met in Florida have trouble not seeing the outlier solutions are unlikely for a reason.

Less breezy in Houston than Lafayette was on the periphery of Georges some year in the 20th Century, but the bit less humid feel (Northeast winds at 1 pm are now SE at 6 pm as the low has moved past our longitude) and fair weather cu moving briskly, yeah, I feel it. Already losing that just a few hours post NE winds...

I don't need to see FSU phase diagrams when the isobars are that 'whatever the opposite of a circle' is. (Non-symmetric?) But a TC getting non-tropical forcing and maintaining or even gaining intensity. 1938 was moving fast with only a few hours over cooler SSTs, but weakening only to a solid Cat 3, was it what smarter people(than me) call isobaric forcing. A hybrid Nor'Easter sort of describes Sandy, although it missed the Benchmark and would have been the hated 'cutter'. (Wiki 1938 image below)

That is why another day it could have been a contender. It is almost common for competing centers delaying organization, Dorian was a nothing burger helped by land organization, a separate dominant MLC and LLC, and just a fairly small volcanic island killing the existing primary LLC allowing the dominant MLC to develop the primary LLC and cut a day or three of mini-Fujiwara of competing centers rotating around a mean center until one wins. Joe Bastardi, in the day, probably now, pigs fighting at the trough. Or something like that. ~5 years since PPV WxBell