Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Small naked swirl approaching 40W, but the storms, what they are, are well East of it. It sure doesn't look like it wants to develop. That swirl is well West, almost 5 degrees, from where the invest officially is.

Beginning of September looks quite active, a juicy fish on the Euro supported by its and GFS' ensembles. 0Z GFS has a long range New England near miss supported when in the Caribbean by ensembles . But the 0/0/0 August isn't impossible. I still think they'll be a named storm, maybe two, although a hurricane this month isn't suggested by the models.

Has its own Wiki Page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Dallas_floods

I'm not giving up on 2 to 3 named storms on one off hour GFS run. But the season looks like it'll struggle to reach 100ACE. Although I still think at least one, probably more than 1, MH in October.

Day 10 Euro, 3 tropical cyclones and a sub-tropical storm. Waiting although the system closest to ECUSA looks like it wants to fish, I suspect they'll be ensemble members further S.

I think we'll know by next weekend, if the Antilles bound wave is acting as forecast, and by much earlier, by Wednesday, if the weak cyclone forms, a JB full back blocking SAL/moistening the atmosphere before getting injured is forming. The big ticket storm is developing or it isn't by Saturday or Sunday. This isn't waiting 10 days to see if the model was correct. Homebrew fish storm, if GFS verifies last few days of August, uses a name. Antilles storm would be named by the end of the month, and although 15 day GFS unlikely to be correct (close to the Yucatan), but with heights building over the SE as the storm moves West, Mexico to Central Gulf would be in play if GFS is even just close. Ridge builds back more slowly, Florida is in the game. At hour 384, GFS, to me, is just another ensemble member But August 2.5/1/0.5 would be my opening line if I had a weather casino. 0/0/0 seems unlikely.

Flood watches and warnings already up for today, 3-5 inches just today per SHV/OUN/FWD watch text. And that won't be all. In addition, GOES East DMV and RAP analysis data showed a 60-70 kt jet streak at 250 mb over northeastern OK, forecast to shift ESE over the next 6 hours. The right entrance region of this jet streak along with diffluent flow around an upper ridge over southwestern TX will aid in increasing vertical motions along the Red River Valley into southern AR/northern LA. In the lower levels, convergent and confluent flow in the 925-850 mb is forecast to set up which should act as a focus for future convective development. Periods of slow moving, training and repeating rounds of heavy rain are likely to form east of the ongoing axis of rain west if I-35 in the next 3-6 hours. Despite significantly dry soil moisture, with the most recent (Aug 21) 0-40 cm soil moisture showing less than the 10th percentile from northern TX into southern OK, the increasing potential for 2-3 in/hr rates and possible 6-hr totals over 4-5 inches are expected to lead to a likely flash flood risk later this morning. Otto ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

I have a theory, I've had it for a while. LDub really thinks they have an inverse power to 'make' storms. My Dad would sometimes start watching a game in progress and the Giants would start giving up yards or going 3 and out, and he would leave. A solid Roman Catholic man thought he had an inverse power over football. A 'jinx'. It is silly, of course, to believe it, LDub is trying to will a cyclone into existence by proclaiming season over.

OT, but possible Texas and neighbor flooding in August not directly related to the tropics, as forecast the next 4 days, is that precedented? I started a thread in TX/LA. August TC flooding has been worse, 2017 for example, but this would be baroclinic.

Super long range GFS is always right until it shows 2 hurricanes threatening the US

.LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Ingredients are continuing to come together for a heavy rain event Sunday and Monday across most of North and Central Texas. As mentioned in the Short Term discussion, while drought usually means soils are readily able to absorb plentiful rain...the severity of the current drought has dried out and compacted the surface soil, making it at least initially resistant to water inundation. This will result in most of the initial rainfall running off, increasing the risk of flooding. Meteorologically...a squeeze play between a remnant tropical system moving in from the south, a mid-level trough moving in from the west, and a weak front moving in from the north will converge over North Texas late Sunday into Monday. Plentiful warm and humid air over the region is supporting warm-cloud depths between 12-16 kft, so any storm that develops will be a very efficient rainfall producer. Due to all of the above factors, we have issued a flood watch for all of North Texas starting Sunday morning that currently runs through Sunday evening. This watch will likely need to be extended through Sunday night into Monday...but since we are uncertain of how far southeast to expand the watch and how long into Monday the watch needs to go, we will reserve expansions and extensions of the watch until later tonight or tomorrow morning. Expect an increase of precipitation coverage over North Texas Sunday evening as low level inflow ramps up and moves overtop of the warm front. Over the course of the night, strengthening convergence ahead of a developing surface low should provide enough ascent to develop thunderstorms further south into Western Central Texas by daybreak. As the low and its attendant fronts slowly advances east over the course of the day, expect a general eastward movement of the heavy rain axis. Precip will start to trend down across North Texas late Monday as drier air filters into the region around the same time as the front starts to exit to the southeast. The front is then expected to stall over Southeast Texas, with daily precip chances continuing for the rest of the week.

This seems regional thread worthy. Euro 12Z ensembles were scary. Today's op Euro is a disaster, op GFS not as bad. Not enough rain to end the drought, but enough to cause possibly disastrous creek and urban flooding. Pictures below. PW multi-day over 2 inches. Remanant PTC moisture and an impressive (for August) slow moving front. For non-direct tropical flooding, this could be a Donald Sutherland worthy flood event.

If you are who I think you are, and have a name near identical to mine (I am EMM, I think E and M match if I am correct) and a web page of cool 1970s NY winter storms (I lived in Massapequa then), the person who trolled you for what turned out to be a correct point was ill advised as your posts are always valid, even if you might make a mistake occasionally. You follow Donald Sutherland as one of the best non-mets on the board, better than an always trolling red tag and a weenie Florida red tag,

This is extending beyond the end of the GFS, which is 6 days of lower model resolution, this clearly won't verify precisely, it may not verify at all, I criticize anyone using a 384 hour GFS to prove the basin is dead, but the storm location and the trough location, even if this fishes, it'll at least give the Hatteras area a very close call. Not a forecast, but based on prior runs and ensembles, it is quite possible. And before that, a weaker East Central Gulf storm, which could be stronger, weaker or not at all, but which also has ensemble support.

On the science, probably, on taking the course of least regret, I disagree. NHC has two missions, and one is public safety. Dr. Bob Sheets made the decision to not 'issue a last advisory' when then Tropical Storm Andrew was found to be a 40-50 knot not quite closed wave, restarting advisories 12 or 18 hours later could have led to confusion or delayed reaction. PTC was the course of least regret for a wave with a small area of night quite TS force winds. PTC is a built in safety factor.

The models have handled this quite well, it was always a version of a Nothing Burger on the various globals and ensembles, and then hurricane guidance was never impressed.

SEASON CANCEL!!!!

You do seem to have a pattern of saying nothing will happen, and then being wrong. I remember Harvey quite well, people around here died, some who went to my church. Maybe you will be rewarded as the broken clock this year, there'll always be an occasional 2013 season, but tonight's Mexico nothing burger would have been a something burger with a little more ocean time. Did I mention Euro ensemble heights are screaming Florida or SEUSA and, per a PhD, Cowan, the basin is soon quite favorable UL and LL W part of basin, where storms have less change to safely recurve then CV storms.

Cowan/TT video on PTC4 had enough time to show (Euro?) ensemble forecast low level and upper level winds, Tl:Dr LL winds become favorable almost basin wide but less favorable than normal UL winds except the W basin. Leading to late bloomers and a greater SEUSA thread. See new post above. 10 day ensemble heights says Florida to me. Not IMBYism, I lived in Florida 83-84, been gone a long time. I think this means NE USA is good for now, but the transition to Autumn would seem to mean that may not last.

Doesn't look that great to me. Looking at the old blue-gray color scale shortwave IR on CIMMS and TT site, the storms are S and E of the most obvious circulation. Maybe it is weak enough to organize a new center under the convection, but I watched the Dr. Cowan video, he seems to know of what he talks, I can't see why models aren't impressed myself, but they seem to have been correct so far and I think this might be the first ever PTC to landfall and dissipate. Unless I missed one. I assume instead of a name waster it will just waste a number if that happens.

It has rained, DFW is looking to go end (or seriously improve) their drought via flooding. 'Every drought in Texas ends with a flood' does look like it will happen again, but the other about droughts ending via the tropics, none needed.

Near zero or negative intensity factors, I didn't think things were that hostile, but whether for the right reasons or night, SHIPS was correct to not be impressed.

I'm all in on the glass one fiftieth full 60 or 70 knot TC ending the drought for East and Southeast Texas. Been raining today, IAH somehow missed the genuine DFW style severe, and still has over 1.5 inches since this time yesterday. 70 knot may knock out power, and if I can't have CPAP (haven't convinced Mrs. Hurricane Fan to let order off Amazon) My employer has demanded I buy a stylus for who knows how old an iPad that hopefully (PO in) will get software like a TI-84 emulator. I'd rather buy the CPAP battery. No, I'm paying.

Farther W than I wanted if at least wanted some rain. It rained today, so its ok. But even Tampico would seem a stretch. If that is the LLC developing.

Stalled off the SEUSA coast in 2 weeks is close enough for me to be trouble.