Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Looking at vis satellite, it doesn't look that far from being a TC.

92L is a vigorous looking LLC with convection trying to form over the center and then having storms sheared off. It looks like just a bit of reduced shear it'd be be a TC. It is near 30N, or it is mostly just a curiosity.

I mention posting an op Day 16 won't convince anyone. You could use ensemble means to show anomalous/November-ish heights, if you can find one to support your idea. 16 days out operational to prove the tropics are dead are just as worthless as posting the 16 day and claim Miami or New Orleans will be hit by a Cat 4 hurricane.

SHIPS isn't impressed, although it uses data from a model that doesn't think much of it. https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/22082800AL9122_ships.txt

I'm fine with 91L, but I'm seeing 92L products, judging from the SHIPS it is in the sub-tropical Atlantic where there is nothing obvious on satellite.

I told him to be happy if August winds up 0/0/0 and take the rare win.

At 10 days out the ensembles are probably a better guide, for individual perturbations at the surface and, for steering, the ensemble mean. Be interesting to see what the GFS/GEFS will do once it loses the Gulf not-a-cane. Having the two major models correctly seeing the system in 2 or 3 days will set the real threat (or fish) area. My takeway from the 12Z GEFS is that it is starting to lose the unlikely Gulf system. The GEFS that do develop this are tending fish.

Interesting to note the dry air to the S of the 'Orange' creating outflow boundaries.

I am curious, I don't have easy access to individual GFS members, if the GEFS that aren't spinning up a spurious significant Gulf low are the same ones that have the Central Atlantic wave as a hurricane N of the E. Greater Antilles next weekend. GFS ensembles do seem to be backing off from a Gulf system, I suspect that trend continues, and as the GFS loses the Gulf not-a-cane, they'll get even more on board for an E Coast storm or late curving fish storm.

The mass extinction event, if there is one, will probably be war(s) because some places are becoming for favorable for human life and some places become more hostile. Almost all of the SW past 100W seems unsustainable soon based on the trends. Los Angeles and San Francisco can build desalinization plants someday, but that won't work well in California's Central Valley, Phoenix or Las Vegas. Water wars around the world would seem possible. I'd think most of the ECUSA cities will be able to adjust if the rate of sea level change stays modest. Miami, maybe not. Famine in countries of limited military means to secure water would probably happen. Probably not a K-T boundary asteroid extinction event, barring a major nuclear exchange. My understanding is Siberia will become more favorable for agriculture, or the nation whose leader threatens first strike nuclear attacks may not need a war.

Or the tropics still have a chance to break up LDub's 'perfect game' of a 0/0/0 August.

Drought isn't officially over, but a 2011 thousands (yes, almost 2,000 homes in rural Bastrop County E of Austin) of homes burning isn't happening. Almost all of Texas I-35 and E is now not likely, IMO, to see big fires. Still exceptional drought per drought monitor AUS/I-35 corridor, but I suspect it is now more reservoir levels being abnormally low, which isn't good, but isn't month long wildfires bad. Drinking water supply (underground and karstic Cretaceous Edwards Limestone) in San Marcos and San Antonio are still low but CPC short-medium outlook is now normal to above normal rainfall. https://www.sanmarcosrecord.com/news/edwards-aquifer-authority-declares-stage-4-permit-reductions

Are we looking at the same models, satellite imagery and CIMMS data? I agree, the GFS Caribbean lemon is not happening, but SAL is improving, the elliptical wave is enhancing moisture around it and is convectively active and is supported by the 18Z GFS ensembles. You won on the 0/0/0 (unless MDR lemon gets named 8/31/2022, which is NOT impossible), I've seen your 2017 Harvey/Irma/Maria posts quoted. You always predict no tropical activity, you finally won. Take your very rare win and stop whining. I mentioned 12Z Euro ensembles point to Florida, but have room for North Carolina/Virginia landfall this far out. You being off the forum w/o electricity in about 2 weeks will be amusing. Not a guarantee, I'm not looking to cherry pick some off hour 2 week op, but it will be amusing.

The GFS has a bad habit of over-developing in the SW Caribbean, but I think the Euro system is the real deal. Look at the other models. Look at the TPW, the now strung out system is moistening the atmosphere. Do you really think the lead disturbance in the MDR looks like it is dying of thirst?

GFS always seems to overdevelop things in the SW Caribbean, a decade ago on this forum Dr. Papin (he was working on his PhD) said the GFS then, to save computing time/resources, used a simplifying assumption of how latent heat of condensation was handled. Euro tends to be conservative, when the op and ensembles all suggest a significant system may be approaching Florida or the SE coast on or just after Labor Day, I believe it will happen, even if details (maybe it makes it into the E Gulf, maybe it hits Mid-Atlantic, fish storm, who knows, Euro mean 500 mb suggests all are possible) aren't certain at hour 240. Mark Sudduth notes we will know if GFS is somehow right about the Caribbean lemon and whether the Euro has a clue in 3 to 5 days.

I know Mid-Atlantic 'Not a Lemon' is under high shear (although it is a nicely divergent shearing) and has SAL to its N, but CIMSS-TPW suggests the dry air to its N is shrinking, and it has obvious vorticity a smidge S of 10N. No model or NHC love, but that, IMO, may be the best chance at a 1 storm August

No lemon, but MDR disturbance has the look. Not a ton of model support, but it has the look. Even w/ SAL just N of it and high shear.

Bahamas thing is the best chance at avoiding an 0/0/0 August. It may not be at the surface, but there looks like anti-cyclonic outflow over the W half of the blob. In a decent shear/moisture area. Models aren't thrilled, but there is vorticity maximized near the tail end. Re: rest of ATL, August is a dud, but a lot of ensemble support for something in either/both the Gulf and near or N of Greater Antilles, at least Danielle gets named over the Labor Day weekend. The ensembles were not showing the amount of activity a week or two ago.

I know some earlier ECENS see the Mexico hurricane, but knowing where the wave is, and tracking LL vorticity, which disappears and reappears and then goes from nothing to something, I can't see how it pulls it off, really. CIMSS PW, the wave between the lemons looks better than either lemon. I haven't looked at the far E lemon, but I wonder if the 2 waves are expected to combine.

Looks like LW gets his 0/0/0 August, but the models and ensembles are dancing with lampshades on in early September. Both lemons forecast to develop by the GFS, but not immediately. The approaching the islands lemon was forecast 2 days ago to be a TC by Saturday, that hasn't happened. Per Euro, it never will develop. GFS cooks it on a low simmer until it strengthens and extends my Labor Day Weekend. GFS has some Euro ensemble support, even if the op keeps it a wave. I'll weenie for a couple of hours on the fantasy range GFS. Is it me, or are systems moving slowly this year. Development or not, the the Lesser Antilles lemon only gets to the Gulf in 10 days and the system behind it isn't that fast either.

It isn't closing an isobar by Saturday. Maybe the Saturday after. GEFS at 5 days no longer in love.

Some warm ENSO seasons, 1983 and 1992, while each having a US impact major hurricane, make 2013 look like 2005. 1997 had a landfalling US H, but was a bust. Forecast bust as well, Gray was aware of the ENSO linkage to hurricanes, but the climate models of his day for predicting a warm ENSO weren't great

Bob Sheets in his book wrote about how the AVN, the grandfather of the GFS, did a good job on track. And when recon found an open wave with 40 or 50 knot winds, he made the decision to keep advisories going because the shear looked better, and dropping a TS for 12 or 24 hours might give a false sense of security or fool people.

GFS monster Gulf storm closes an isobar by Saturday. Or we know in 3 or 4 days whether it is a model figment. Pretty sure ~ 30% of 6Z ECENS see it this weekend in the Caribbean. Similar percentage of GEFS. But it isn't an 8 day forecast (for formation), its a 3 to 4 day from now per GFS.

The satellite naked LLC swirl 5 degrees W of the invest location has disappeared. Maybe this comes back next weekend, but it is dead. Pining for the fjords. Ya murio. I'd say next but this probably a week away, minimum.