Ed, snow and hurricane fan

The eye of Hurricane Belle passed over Massapequa, we were staying at my Dad's friend from work, Mr. Harkin, because his family lived inland a few miles. Maybe North Massapequa. They had cable TV, I almost got to watch an R rated movie with his kids when the power went out. My Dad would not let me go outside to check out the hurricane. Belle was barely a Cat 1. Oh, since 2008 and Ike (and I was reminded 2/21), I now need CPAP because I'm fat. Sleeping w/o CPAP is hard. Ike was an adventure, my wife and kids went to Austin until power came back, a guy at work lent me a 5 shot .357 ( I wasn't keeping a gun in my house with toddlers), and I read paperback books when it was light, BBQd steaks I had on ice in a cooler, and used a San Judas Tadeo votive candle as my bathroom nightlight. Ike pulled a pretty impressive cold front for mid-September in, I don't remember the lack of AC bothering me. But no CPAP, during the rolling blackouts 2/2021, no fun. Freezing drizzle at 14F. It floated like snow, but it was just little specks of ice. Give me snow or give me warm weather.

Op GFS 250 mb winds change over the next two weeks, but the usual state through that period is hostile shear. There does appear a window, as far as shear goes, for favorable conditions in the BoC and SW Caribbean next week, but the Northern Gulf remains hostile. in 9 days, maybe shear is reduced in the E. Gulf to be marginal. But nothing looks obvious, and any GEFS with lows in the Gulf in the next 10 days are probably wrong.

I'm counting on the W Caribbean for at least an active October although Euro weeklies are tepid, at best. GFS ensembles will continue to develop spurious lows in the SW Caribbean, I doubt anything happens in the next two weeks. There are a couple of brief periods shear isn't completely hostile in the Gulf, but they are brief interludes in long stretches that suggest nothing survives in the Gulf through the 19th. Which then brings the Texas Equinox End of Season rule, although in about 150 years of records, 1989 was a minor exception and 1949 was a solid Cat 2 exception.

336 GEFS with random members in the SW Caribbean developing is probably noise. ECENS have about 20% of members showing something near/North of the Caribbean moving W to NW a week from Monday, an ECUSA storm isn't completely impossible. Maybe not likely, but not completely impossible. Euro weeklies look dead, although 9-25 to 10-3 pressures are below average in the Gulf and mid October rainfall is forecast above average in the Caribbean. The good news, looking at a few sites, ENSO heads for neutral late Winter/Spring. I don't know how the cool ENSO kept a lid on the season, with the EPAC activity, it felt like a warm ENSO, but if it goes neutral, next season can't be any worse. Unless we are moving into a multi-decadal 70s to early 90s quiet period.

There is a deep upper level low in the NC Gulf, the entire Gulf is under unfavorable shear. That, per GFS, will last at least a week. No Gulf homebrew anytime soon.

250 mb winds are parallel to the front, satellite shows it is screaming aloft, ~50 knots at 250 mb. And that screaming jet only occupies more of the Gulf by hour 96 on the GFS. The entire Gulf looks to have hostile shear per the GFS through the weekend, or any weak LL reflection of the upper low in the Gulf isn't going to develop. The shear lightens in a week, from completely hostile to somewhat unfavorable.

A private sector professional met (MS thesis on interaction of shear and low humidity on TCs) says he sees a sign in the modeling the switch is finally going to flip, but looking at 0Z GEFS, I don't see it. Euro still has Earl wandering aimlessly in the Atlantic, and a new TC coming off Africa that is late in the season and a bit too far N to think it won't fish even if it forms.

Summer is a time of relative stasis. NH sunshine is decreasing fairly quickly now, peak rate of change at the Equinox. Euro weekly may be wrong,, but it is hinting at a storm in the Gulf. Interesting for me, with two exceptions in 150 years (1989, half-a-cane Jerry and 1949, a Cat 2 hitting S of Houston (Freeport) that crossed Mexico into the BoC first week of October) in that there is still a chance for Texas. But it makes sense a generally hostile pattern having breaks during the change of seasons. Also a signal for the Eastern Gulf first week of October. Gulf activity end of September and October almost by definition means a landfall, or this could still be a one big storm season. I'm limited, for some reason, to 18k, which isn't enough to load any image. But the 9/19 to 9/26 pressure anomaly absolutely suggests a Gulf storm.

Assuming GFS is close, it should be nice to look at on satellite.

Op GFS, strong wave or even a TD hits Florida from the SE mid-month. That would be funny if the only September impact to the US is a TD just after season peak. I'd load a picture but I'm 8.4 KB limited for AmWx, and that isn't enough for anything.

I know this year was the hottest July on record in Houston. The recent rains have reduced the drought and wildfire risk in most of the state, and we are now getting pieces of mid-latitude disturbances that come under the ridge and rain on us. Like a tropical wave, except not of tropical origin. I'd post the drought map but an apparent 8.4 kb file limit means I can't post most images.

I see a now naked swirl to the NW of the main blob, and dry air induced outflow boundaries. I suppose they could call it a TC, but it'd be one ugly TC.

About 30% of Euro ensembles show something coming off Africa at fairly low latitude at the season peak, although its suggests anything strong goes fishing.

It has an obvious eye, I'm pretty sure next advisory calls it a hurricane.

It is fitting what will probably be the first hurricane of the year is a threat only to shipping.

I didn't expect a slow season, but saw with everyone going big numbers, my best chance of winning was going low. I went something like 10/4/2 (give or take), I think betting the under will pay off. I still think October will have 2 majors.

Still spitting out outflow boundaries due to dry air. Usually not a sign of imminent organization.

Forecast to be a hurricane in 2 days. 0/0/0 September may not be an issue.

IMBY-ism While warm ENSO winters are cooler and wetter than usual in Texas, the severe outbreaks, a day or more below freezing to the Gulf Coast, almost always happen in a cool ENSO winter, even if the seasonal mean is warmer. Or a warm ENSO is my yard's friend JB post- I see why the Atlantic MDR is so hostile, but the only reason the Caribbean and Gulf are dead now is there is no meaningful wave to start spinning up Moisture and shear look fine. The GFS phantom storm that finally disappeared would have been in great conditions except there was no pre-existing vorticity. Or Florida stays in the game for weeks. October still makes at least one Caribbean/Gulf major, unless something else is going on.

I wanted to experience a rig evacuation because of a storm during the ~ year I lived in Louisiana in 1997 (and part of 1998). I was working on a land rig near Cameron when Danny developed. This is like 1997. Although I see no reason a Caribbean to Eastern GOMEX storm or two in October won't happen.

If you always pick a season below seasonal expectations or below normal, you are eventually correct. Neither Euro nor GFS ensembles are dead at 10 days, although they do suggest fishes.

It was good for almost a week of Lemon. A single model with a known bias.

18Z GFS still has fantasy TC developing which might change steering, but seems like more data is helping.

Active EPac and dead Atlantic does look like a warm ENSO. I think the GFS will get onboard with 91L/Danielle once it loses the something from nothing hurricane and its influence pumping heights to the E and sharpening the TUTT.