Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Who said @MJO812's season is over?

As someone who has taught probabilities, there is no such thing as 'being due' for a storm or anything else. But Tampa, well, its due.. At this point, NOLA to hit Cuba and then OTS is possible. If it even forms.

I was looking at 'homebrew' SW Carb/BoC development, and the active EPac had me thinking maybe not, but a late MDR wave starting in the E Caribbean, I hadn't considered that.

If Florida Panhandle storm forms as modelled, we really can't be completely @ldub23depressing.

GFS would break a rule broken only twice before (1949, 1989) in recorded history, a hurricane in Texas in October. For that reason alone, and the time range, I suspect it doesn't happen.

GFS ensembles have random Caribbean and Gulf storms through the first few days of October, but the amount of East Pac activity the GFS and Euro ensembles have been showing tends to suggest nothing soon down there. Bermuda sees enough hurricanes that they are hardened, a Fiona hit in Canada as a 930s to 950s hybrid is interesting.

VDM and radar, the SW eyewall is still open. Not sure land, dry air, shear. Pretty decent pressure to still have an open eye.

I think Nova Scotia/Newfoundland are still in play. Won't be purely tropical, but ensembles showing some near hurricane force, and a hybrid system would have a larger windfield.

Watching GFS 500 mb CONUS heights, I think anyplace, except maybe the Eastern Gulf/Florida W. Coast, has survived Hurricane Season 2022 unscathed. Just one trough after another into the Northeast over a semi-permanent Central US ridge, that seems like a pattern for the few remaining ATL MDR storms to fish. East Pac tropics stay busy into October per GEFS, or my idea a month ago of a hurricane, maybe a major, threatening the E Gulf/WC FLA in October seems iffy. Verbatim misses Bermuda, but ~950 mb Thursday night/Friday as it passes, Fiona can still impact land after Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. EDIT TO ADD- based on post just before mine, at least about a week of satellite enjoyment. It looked decent even when it was a naked swirl, if that makes any sense. EDIT TO ADD MORE: The thing that probably just looks like an eye developing is close enough to the last recon fix maybe it is an eye developing.

Hoping there is still sunlight on Fiona when the LLC crosses Guadeloupe. I think it may die then and there. Not sure a new LLC would form.

115 knots approaching Kyushu is not chopped liver.

There is a 988 mb (but max winds below 30 knots) crossing the Isle of Youth, so I'd put the Gulf at 8%. There looks like a SC hit that hasn't quite happened yet as well. Trying to keep the weenie-ish SEUSA hit alive, but I think this is asking for the perfect triple phaser right over the BM blizzard situation. I will note, I remember Boxing Day, and the Sabbath observant logging off Friday evening in a funk, the models cancelled the storm, and logging back on to see blizzard warnings. Eli Manning did beat Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl. But my objective/weenie filter activated thought is a fish other than the SE Bahamas or maybe Bermuda once the floods stop on Hispaniola.

GEFS disappointing, there are a few rando Gulf TC ensemble members before September ends but EPac is way, way more active, and rarely is the Gulf/SW Caribbean active when the EPac is active. ENSO region temps are about -1 degree C, but I swear this is an El Nino year.

Close enough to Bermuda to be interesting. My amateur thinking at this point, after allowing myself a touch of weenie 1954 hurricane tracks yesterday, is with all the models w/ half a clue fishing after flooding Hispaniola, it fishes. Probably even if interacts with C. Hispaniola instead of the flatter E portion of the island. I see the outlier Canadian ensembles on the TT page, I suppose anything is possible, but if a betting man, my bet is now money line -300 that other than Puerto Rico and the USVI, not a US threat. The greater than 1010 mb GEFS towards Florida would be a wave, not a TC

I'm not writing it off until the Euro also fishes after the G. Antilles. The LLC looks to cross Guadeloupe, and 1500 m volcanoes shouldn't mean much, but the L. Antilles helped Dorian organize, by destroying the LLC that was SW of the MLC, allowing a new LLC to develop under the MLC. Not saying that happens, but for a more than half exposed LLC with gentle W breezes S of the center, the 2 small volcanoes may be enough to open it back up.

Decent winds, >50 knots on the NE side, but Fiona is barely closed. Very light W winds S of the center. I think either the center reforms or it opens into a wave. Even if it does open before 11 am advisory, I'd think NHC would keep advisories for another cycle or two as TS winds are likely in the NE L. Antilles tonight, even if Fiona is an open wave.

18Z GFS had >15 inch storm total rain in parts of the DR. That may not be wrong.

18Z GFS is Joe Bastardi's Hurricane Carol scenario come to life (NC and dang close to SE New England). I checked his Twitter, disappointed he didn't mention Carol again.

Euro weeklies suggest WCar and GOMEX never really get active, although Oct 17-24 might have something based on rainfall anomalies. 12Z GEFS at 15 days is more interested in the EPac than the Caribbean or GOMEX, or the 2022 El Nino year despite Nino regions being near -1°C appears to last into the normal October WCar/Eastern Gulf season.

Looks terrible, but flight level winds near hurricane force under the convection. 45 knot SMRF.

Canadian builds an August like ridge over it in the Gulf, but earlier on, with the weakness in the heights to the N and NE, Canadian isn't pulling this one North. I'd think Fiona would feel that.

I'm not surprised JB is talking ECUSA and mentioning Carol. I think all pro-mets became pro-mets because of weenie tendencies, but most pro-mets (there is someone on this board from Florida who is JB-ish) seem to feel a professional responsibility not to weenie. He may not be wrong, but he can't help an East Coast bias.

I'm considering @MANDA's idea with the LLC now completely exposed, this may open to a wave and never close off again, open to a wave and wait for more favorable conditions, or the current LLC dies and is replaced one under the convection, which would still have the dry air being blown into the system by shear from the W. And I don't know which 500 mb forecast to trust off the models. That and how weak/strong, I am clueless.

Crazy question, I used to see them posted, graphical form, how does the Canadian 500 mb forecast compare to the GFS and Euro? Because the mid/upper level pattern over Eastern North America seems to be a huge part of the forecast, especially if a sheared system with dry air pushed into it survives the G. Antilles or doesn't open back to a wave. (is the Canadian NOLA hurricane a possibility? Canadian ensembles suggesting Florida?))

18Z GFS opens 7 into a wave, rains a lot on Hispaniola, and then has the wave redevelop near the Bahamas and come close enough to Hatteras and Cape Cod for some local thread action At a week plus away, close enough is good enough for me.