Ed, snow and hurricane fan

GFS ensemble mean heights around 300 hours, fantasy land, enough Eastern/Great Lakes trough to possibly bend this N and then NE, with E Gulf as a possible target. GFS ensembles, the few stronger members hit the Yucatan instead of Central America, and a couple of those recurve to the E Gulf. Fantasy range stuff. Euro ensembles are pretty much agreed on C. America. October steering down there can get weird, I still remember Hurricane Mitch.

Some of the 18Z Euro Ensembles seem to like it. Not impressive on satellite, and they didn't even bother running 18Z HWRF or HMON. The drop to Lemon status suggests the NHC doesn't really expect it to develop.

That could be tomorrow's flight forward deploying to the USVI. I also noted a 53rd WRS plane flying from Curacao during Ian.

GFS storm is clear on the op by 228 hours, literally zero support at that time from ensembles.

End of the run, adding salt, but a trough turns it N into the Gulf, and extrapolating past 384, towards the Central or Eastern Gulf. Ensembles may be interesting...

For whatever reason, (I see some shear but not horrible), ensembles are not very enthusiastic. Lost a lot of the convection, but the vorticity is rather evident.

If the radar center is the main center, it is making landfall now. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=CAE-N0Q-0-6

Going into October it is getting pretty late to get something forming just past the CVs to make it all the way. Do we have 11 NS with a PTC and a TD? I think the fishing lemon, if named, would get us to 10 NS. I could be wrong, it has happened before. Look for the Caribbean. Euro and GFS ensembles have a few members with storms, but nothing painfully obvious down there next 10 days but after that, MJO is not in the right place yet, but headed there.

Recon will report back whether it is warm core or not. Time sensitive, what looks like a cold front approaching the center on vis satellite probably is te cold front approaching the core per a quick glance at SPC meso analysis. I assume the warm core could occlude, and be warm core at flight level for a while.

Sandy had warm core at landfall, it was still hybrid and some station, I can't remember which, reported a sustained 64 knots in Suffolk County before NHC downgraded it and stopped advisories. The whole Sandy thing is why NHC was issuing advisories on Fiona through Canadian landfall.

Lot of rain and it doesn't look like a 50 mile shift in track would do much.

With a broader wind field and a sharper angle of approach to the coast, the exact landfall point is easier to estimate, and less important, with the expanded windfield.

Tropical lows, hybrid lows and polar lows all will produce higher wind if there is tighter pressure gradient. Alicia almost 30 years ago had 1014 mb pressure when named, it was in an area of abnormally high pressure. The gradient between a strong cold ridge in the NE and a developing NE-ster is why the winds are so high to the N and W of the cyclone.

Yesterday's POD for today has the first flight this evening, I assume based on forecast of a later exit from Florida. Anybody know how quickly they can task a plane? Data before the 11 pm EDT might be helpful to NHC.

It isn't just social media, NBC will have their expert, Al Roker, on about every other night. Often with some simulated radar forecast. Rain or heatwaves in California, it will make the news. The expected thunderstorms in an area with a SLIGHT RISK, if in the Northeast, makes the nightly news. We don't have enough hurricanes locally to judge, but even a remote possibility of ice or snow will be on the commercials for the local news. I don't know how many icing or snow events we haven't had, butit several.

Some places will see better weather. Others won't. I was skeptical, I remember Al Gore, obviously with some climatologist's input, predicting an ice free Artic by 2015 in 2007. That didn't happen. But three locations inside the Arctic Circle on 3 continents this past Summer recording all time high temps, maybe it isn't happening as quickly some people are predicting, but dismissing it out of hand is probably not the smart move.

I assume the FSU Super Ensemble is no more? It was a model that 'learned' from past biases shown in various models and then weighted the models that performed the best highest is creating the ensemble. I get the impression the TVCN is just an ensemble. I could be wrong.

Tweet was on main thread. I salute the man (or woman) driving a cabin cruiser in a Cat 4 hurricane.

Half a kilometer lower, I'd think temps would be higher.

Texas, after insurers wouldn't write policies in coastal counties after Celia mandated any home insurers in the state had to form a pool to cover them. Texas Windstorm Insurance Agency. They have building code standards, and won't write policies if they is an established storm (Ian is nowhere near, but no policies written since 9/26/2022). I assume Florida has something similar, although only a small area of Texas needs state mandated insurance for hurricane winds and and Florida, the whole state needs it. Main thread, insured losses may push poorly funded insurance companies under. If that happens, I wonder if companies will need a minimum reserve to pay claims. Insurance rates are sure to climb, even in areas not severely impacted in Florida.

And people were weenie-ing anyone who mentioned Cat 5. Technically a Cat 4 still, but it is pushing it.

COD radar loop suggests what is left of the original eye will probably merge w/ the new N-ern eyewall fairly soon. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BYX-N0Q-0-6

Red tide is tied to its value as a fertilizer. The red tides are more common in the Gulf of Mexico near the mouth of the Mississippi River because of excess fertilizer runoff from Midwest farms. Consumes the oxygen, kills the fish. Leaves a dead zone.

Radon is apparently the leading cause of lung cancer in non-smokers. Most dangerous in homes built on naturally radioactive material and mines. It produces alpha particles, helium w/o the electrons yet. Skin is enough to stop alpha radiation, hence the risk is in inhaling it, where, like Pu, it irradiates living tissue to the point of causing cancer. Last 30 years homes built in areas with high natural levels of radioactive material that produces the gas are required to have ventilation designed to keep concentrations low.

I think it is phosphate fertilizer production. Just reading about concentrations of radon producing trace amounts of radium in the waste. Radiation gets the publicity, but the heavy metals, if I had to guess, would be a bigger danger to wildlife. Construction gypsum is apparently lower in the radium. Or they couldn't use it in construction. The only thing I know about gypsum, really, is its desiccated cousin anhydrite is found in outcrops on the Colorado River in Bastrop. The other Colorado River.