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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

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Everything posted by Ed, snow and hurricane fan

  1. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Dewpoint boundary is in the Metroplex now. DP bump not as important as S to SE winds near 20 mph which would enhance the hodo.
  2. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Small severe watch W/NW of metro DFW. I assume they will post a Tornado Watch later. SE winds near 20 mph and near 70F near Corsicana will liven this sounding up considerably.
  3. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Softball size hail kills less people (a pizza delivery driver in Fort Worth was killed during that tornadic storm (2000?) that hit downtown, running to get to his new truck and drive it under cover) but damages property over a lot bigger area than all but the longest tracked wedges, and the big tornado is possible, but the big hail seems more likely. The mid-90s Mayfest storm got my parents in Bedford (Mom is still alive and in Euless w/ my sister) a new roof. Roof was old, needed replacing, hail damage and AllState waived deductible for using Sears roofers.
  4. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Storms going well inside the dry air in the BIg Country, sharp DP front, 70F to about 60F, between Corsicana and DFW. SE humid side to SW 'drier' (not dry, just drier), that seems like it wouldn't help cyclonic vorticity, but it does seem to be a boundary.
  5. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    No. I had WxBell until they tripled their rates. Joe Bastardi went completely political, he was once worth reading, back around 2005. He wasn't worth paying for, even with good models, in 2017. Just checked, free models aren't bad there. I had assumed they were PPV only. 15Z HRRR 500 mb low initialized was awfully close in location and windfields to both GFS and NAM 3 hr from 12Z, so it doesn't seem initialization is why they are different later. I miss the HPC model diagnostic discussions.
  6. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    For the Texas tornado threat/thread, I am trying to match 500 mb heights in Texas between models and HRRR/RAP, which I assume which be updated, but TT and COD don't show 500 mb for those models. Anyone have a comparison on which model initialized best and is best now? It would affect your snow. Quincy occasionally posts in severe threads, other than that, they are met free.
  7. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Last night ESE of San Antonio.
  8. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
  9. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    I discovered Ryan Hall's YouTube last Spring. He streams some chasers famous enough I've heard of them.
  10. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Latest HRRR interesting near TXK mid/late afternoon, 3 km NAM also seems interested in the general area, near the possible boundary reinforced by the weakening shower activity.
  11. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    SWODY Day 1 enahnced, with 10% sig tornadoes and hail, in S Arkansas and a small bit of neighboring TN and MS
  12. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    First model run with good sampling of the ULL.
  13. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    3km and 12km NAM forecast soundings for DFW have a pronounced veer-back-veer mentioned above with an otherwise juicy sounding. Should temper tomorrow's DFW tornado threat some. SHV near midnight ahead of the QLCS looks more favorable for embedded tornadic supercells. Maybe tomorrow's MOD get shaved a bit on the W side at the 11:30 update.
  14. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Thursday 6 pm, Veer-Back-Veer mentioned above on 3 and 12km NAM soundings in DFW. 80 knots 12km/90 knot 3km deep shear and ~1600 J/Kg MLCAPE on both. I think (I need to watch a You Tube to make sure I'm doing it right) WBZ is around 3 km, a tad high for hail per internet, but who knows. 90 knots shear
  15. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Congratulations.
  16. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Typhoon Tip commented on the longer range Euro ensemble 500 mb pattern and used the number '1888' in his post. He qualified that rather severely.
  17. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    I'm following this disturbance for the Thursday 'ENHANCED' ArkLaTex severe episode, noting differences in models, and looking to see when the 500 mb disturbance comes onshore, and 12Z tomorrow is earliest this is RAOB sampled, maybe 0Z, so, for my subforum severe threat, and I'd think your snow threat, it is at least half a day too early to go completely negative.
  18. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Looking at the 12Z GFS point soundings, EHI, etc., this wouldn't be a Day 1 Mod or High. NAM is 'better'. but at 60 hours, not quite in the wheelhouse. NAM is slower/farther West has better point soundings, higher EHI, but still not High risk, IMO. If the NAM stays consistent as the event approaches, Moderate seems doable.
  19. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    May be a smidge early to trust NAM at midnight Shreveport time just ahead of the storms, but 2K MLCAPE, 90 knots shear, decent hodo. Midnight is a bad time for storms.
  20. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Indeed.
  21. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Coastal looks to be forming near DeLMarVa.
  22. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    5-6 hours until it goes to rain per NAM's. 1.7" Kuchera 12 km, 0.8" high res NYC total per COD.
  23. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Mike Seidel is in Worcester, where it isn't snowing yet, Chris Bruin, who I wouldn't know except for the chyron, is in CPK.
  24. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    TWC is in Central Park, and mention of a lightning strike at 1 WTC. (Edit to bold, I knew they were in a park, did not know which one)
  25. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Seeing LIE mentioned in storm thread. After we moved to Texas (1981), they renamed NY 495 to I-495, which bothers me, as even number prefixes to a 2 digit interstate is for loops (like I-610 in the Houston inner loop highway) and the LIE is a spur of 95, or should be I-395 or I-595. The I-495 beltway in Massachusetts follows the rule. I'm old enough to remember the Seaford-Oyster Bay Expressway being new, when there was talk of a bridge extending it over the Sound to Connecticut. I see Seaford and Lindenhurst posts, none from Amityville or Massapequa.
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