Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I don't have access to Euro instability, but judging from TWC discussion about Thursday, that model probably does have instability. As mentioned, N. Louisiana has the dynamics per GFS if only instability was higher.

How is the Euro hr 36 low just off the C. Maine coast throwing heavy precip SW into E. Mass and CT? Probably a good met reason for it but isn't that usually where the dry slot would be?

I'm near my file size limit and would like to remove some 3 month old uploads or uploads embedded in a 100 page thread. Without having to hunt old posts in 100 page threads to edit to remove attachments.

Spring in the Texas-Oklahoma-Arkansas-Louisiana subforum, if I am using a short range model between 6 hour runs for thunderstorm initiation and severe stuff, I use the HRRR, not RAP. I use RAP only in the form of the SPC current conditions page. I don't use HRRR much past 12 hours. HRRR might be getting in range for the surface low location between 18Z and 0Z models. 16Z has the inverted trough at hour 18, FWIW.

GFS shows a cap that never really breaks. There are Thursday afternoon/evening storms, especially E Texas and N. Louisiana, but there is only skinny CAPE above the weak cap ahead of them. Front maybe stalling somewhere near I-10 and PWs around 1.6, rain Thursday-Friday might be bigger issue. Edit to add- if instability were higher in N. Louisiana, which could happen, dynamics are there for sig severe.

40 to 50 knot 925s overlap a foot of snow on GFS in an area near/W of 495. Tree and power line damage.

Early 1980s it snowed in NY/Lomg Island and rained in BOS in March or April.

Harvey Leonard from the 1980s? Is he still alive?

My Grandma died in 2003, but she painted her house a semi-pastel green, and on final to Logan, if one the correct side of the plane, could see her house. N. Quincy is *not* that close to BOS. Christmas/Easter Breaks, I got to see some snow. 1964, her second husband (she was a widow x2) died falling down the stairs bring blankets from upstairs for my older brother and sister when my Mom was in the hospital in Flushing cranking me out, with forceps assistance. Mo m, and seriously and mean, blamed me for varicose veins. I was 10 pounds, but Andrew in 1969 was 11 pounds, and my Mom did not blame him...

8 inches of slop with tornado alley like power flashes as wet snow on the third rail causes arcing and sparking at North Quincy MBTA station. (Is there still a Merit station across from MBTA by N. Quincy High and the Red Raiders?)

Nothing to do w/ New England, except NBM, half of NWS Houston's AFD's are why they are deviating significantly from the NBM. I'm mixing 12Z NAM (but cutting snow Long Island and Boston metro in half due temps) and Tip's discussions, best realistic result for Massapequa 11758 and North Quincy.

When I was a kid there was a temperature requirement. That disappeared about 30 years ago.

See my post on NYC forum. I don't see why NAM can't verify except at fairly low ratio. Near 10 inches of slushy paste in Brooklyn is a nice consolation prize.

How much weight is a model that initializes hourly given past about 18 hours given? #TXwx/ and Texas subforum, it is used between 6 hour NAM runs for time of dryline or WAA storm initiation. I'd prefer the NAM or nested NAM at this range myself, partly because NAM is what I'd like.

NAM's 2 inches of QPF at a 5:1 ratio is a nice decent school canceler for SE Nassau/SW Suffolk. Not giving up hope.

Typhoon Tip on NE forum noted the lack of a clear low level focus, because the antecedent air mass is stale, is why the models are still having large divergence between runs and on the ensembles. He said that in 3 or 4 paragraphs. A colder initial air mass and a sharp gradient between land and maritime airmass would mean where the low forms and tracks would be constrained. I look at NE, Grandma, dead now 20 years, lived across the street from the North Quincy MBTA station and the arcing and sparking (power flashes, really) when heavy wet snow was falling on the third rail was just awesome. The lights in the trains would be blinking in and out. Probably bad for the motors...

Spread in ECENS suggests accumulating snow, while unlikely, is not impossible even in Manhattan. Still a big spread meaning butterflies (monarchs are back in Houston) can change the outcome. I'm still rooting for the students at St. Martin of Tours in Amityville (students also from Massapequa and Copaigue, even a few from Lindenhurst). I started in 1970, we had years w/o snow days. I think 3rd grade there wasn't one. Now, January and February 1978 were golden.

I'm not sure anyone can blame the model, this kind of spread this close suggests very minor differences in initial conditions mean a lot. Anybody know what the lower resolution control did?

It sucks severely for the students of St Martin of Tours in Amityville (and Massapequa and Copaigue). Looking at Grandma's old house (she died 20 years ago) in North Quincy, it looks like rain and slop, but maybe even inside 128 some places would get a nice snow. It doesn't take much of a shift to put Quincy back in play, Amityville looks near hopeless.

I think there is a 'quick look' (oilfield well logging term, pre-computer analysis days when chart books were used to correct measurements) benefit to a 10:1 map. Divide by 10 and its is the QPF the model thinks falls as snow. If one doesn't want to look at 850 and 925 and surface temps or soundings every 3 hours for P-type prediction to determine P-type. Models that output at 6 hours, if there is heavy precip and a phase change sometime during the 6 hours, hard just to apply a 7:1 or whatever to the precip since it is hard to know when rain changed to sleet or snow.

925 hPa temp hits freezing at hour 66 (Tuesday 18Z) and is below freezing every 6 hour interval to hour 90 (Wednesday 18Z) during which 1.2 inch QPF falls. Surface temp per UKMET is 33. I suspect ratios are poor, but more than 2 inches of snow should fall.

I heard this about the GFS but I assume the same holds for the Euro, 18Z is the off hour run with more aircraft (ACARS) data than the 6Z, more data, better initialization, more accurate run. The cargo airlines make up a big part of the 6Z aircraft data.

Korean is going full 1888. I can't find it on the net but it was posted on NE sub-forum.

I don't know my anomalies. It seems like an anomaly of .2 or .4 might not be that wet. Do you have a QPF or layer RH? Thanks.