Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Most GFS ensembles are a 'fish', because most are strong, most Euro ensembles are into the Caribbean, because most are weak. I think strength determines path, but the Lesser Antilles are in decent shape either way, a miss or a weak system. Hispaniola might have flood issues with a weaker system just because it reaches them. GFS and Euro shear and moisture currently looking favorable. Satellite makes me thing it won't close off immediately, but when it does, it could intensify quickly. Or either the GFS family stronger and recurve or the Euro family weaker and make it to the LA seem reasonable.

Pretty sure that is an artifact of Tropical Tidbits display, not the Euro. If the model had a 1024 high, exceptionally high for the deep tropics, the winds around that H would reflect it.

On Euro, 92L stays weak enough to make it to the LA. Dry air and shear are the picadors, Hispaniola is the matador.

I've never heard of the University of Arizona hurricane forecast before. https://news.arizona.edu/story/very-active-hurricane-season-expected-2023-uarizona-experts-say Link is to April forecast.

HWRF for 92L, and some GEFS and ECENS have a friend following in the footsteps of what likely becomes Arlene. Bret.

The GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean is into or just N of the Lesser Antilles. I'd bet money on the fish as well (TVCN consensus is a fish), but it isn't a lock. The stronger members tend to recurve.

A hurricane in a week per GFS. Misses the Antilles. The op has something developing NW of the system that helps the recurve I'm not sure about, but the ECENS seem to suggest stronger means a recurve.

I don't know it hasn't been fixed. If it hasn't, I'm guessing spurious TCs at medium range is something NCEP can live with.

I'm guessing for the outflow boundary.

Perrytown storm has at least one dead per Twitter.

Someone sent Ryan Hall a still picture of the wall cloud with the storm approaching Norman. Nothing that looked like a funnel. No tornado warning.

Radar indicated, but the people on Youtube with 'Radar Omega' or similar, looks like the storm that may move just N of Gainesville looks like the real deal. Waiting for someone to show the dual pol.

200 miles from the Llano storm, thick overcast in Houston with virga almost to the house. (I assume virga, anyway, but as dark as the clouds are, might see a few drops.)

A couple of Euro ensembles support the GFS, and eyeballing the ensemble perturbations, the mean of the ensembles appears to be through the Lesser Antilles.

I commented on this a week ago, telling @GaWxthe Euro had vorticity down there. If that had developed as originally forecast on the model, it would be in or approaching the Gulf by now. Dr. Papin ~10 years ago said the GFS uses a simplifying assumption on the latent heat of condensation such that any area of storms that persist will become warm core in the model. Dr. Knabb on THC about 3 days ago said the GFS was picking up on the CAG (I'd call it more of a monsoon trough extending through CA into South America than a classic slop gyre.) That can spin up an Atlantic TC, but more likely to spin up something that develops in the Pacific. Even if a TC forms early next week, after a week of storms that did not develop when predicted, there is no coup. In favor of the latest GFS, the pushing the system back in time every run has ended, the system becomes a depression on the model in 5 days, not the week to 10 days like prior runs. And the Euro looks somewhat more supportive, with 500-850 mb vorticity. 12Z ECENS may have a few perturbations with a TC. Not writing today's 12Z off completely.

I'll be watching satellite, but the GFS has been on an island and is still on an island. I'm also skeptical.

Either 108F in Houston nest Tuesday is too warm, or rain cooled temps in the 80s around Austin and Dallas are just not happening. I suspect both. I tend to believe the 103F NWS FWD forecast for Euless. Same temp for my house in Houston, which sounds more reasonable, per NWS HGX. 108F would break the monthly record. 103F is probably a daily record locally, DFW, I'm guessing in 1980 it was a lot higher than that.

Cells are starting to grow upscale by the time they reach DFW around 9 pm, but STP of 10, don't see that everyday. SPS storms happen before dark, however. If I had to guess where a chaser would want to chase.

DFW is in the new watch. MCD is interesting. Mesoscale Discussion 1046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023 Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 142029Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX, afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells. Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage, some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

I don't know enough about the Canadian and the CFS- when they seem very different (August shear levels near North America) which one is more likely to be correct.

Maybe not.

No posts but mine in 2 weeks, the severe weather of the last few days in severe threads. Since there doesn't appear to be a way for the OP to rename the thread, and it has been a while, I'll start it now. I do wonder if 2022 in a thread title helps people ignore it even when it is the newest in the subforum. I'll try to add 2024 to the thread title in January. The ridge shifts around a bit, but heights at or above 588 decameters seems a constant state wide through the end of the month on the ensemble and exceeds 594 dm over much of the state much of the op run. Most of the rain on the op model in Texas and Oklahoma fall in the next couple of days.

The ghost of the GFS storm looks sickly, but it is there. Dr. Knabb suggested this as a GFS reaction to the CAG. I don't know if a fully closed (and by definition, broad) circulation is needed to be technically a gyre. Euro comes close, but doesn't seem to fully close off. Knabb pointed out the CAG can generate TCs, he seemed to be leaning toward an EPac system if one were to develop

I don't what wind profile favors the left cell when a supercell splits, but HRRR likes the idea of a left dominant splitter. 23Z run still doing it. Edit- 7:10, tornado warning. Timmer would be seeing it if TOG.