Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Dr. Phil replied to a Twitter question, defending the CSU forecast with 200 mb height and 200 mb wind maps. Warm water in EATL has raised heights, shear E of 60W will be favorable if the pattern persists. But the pattern suggests even higher than the normally high percentage of storms that recurve, and shear will be generally quite hostile W of 60W. I'd think a decent number of NS and H, but low chance of US landfalls between steering and shear.

Klotzbach doesn't think El Nino will be as strong as some predictions, why his Atlantic ACE forecast is high. The June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (- 2.57) was the most negative June value of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1894. These strong negative anomalies in the eastern subtropical Pacific tend to favor anomalously strong trade winds across the central tropical Pacific, which is one reason why we do not anticipate that El Niño will become as strong as some of the most aggressive model projections indicate.

Dr. Phil is not backing off the active season. https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2023-07.pdf

While it seems El Nino won't be quite as extreme as earlier thought, it should be moderate to strong. I'm guessing that is more important than the AMO, and the forecast numbers drop some in the forecast update.

Adrian is the first W. Hemisphere hurricane of 2023.

1980 wasn't normal. June 23 to August 3rd, every day above 100*F. I suspect Dallas, and I know Houston, 1980 and 2011 are responsible for a lot of the daily summer records. Weirdly, Houston's all time record of 109*F was set in September, 2000.

June 26, 1980. DFW's 113*F day.

Adrian is bringing the thread back from 8 months of hibernation. The one after is the one that could get close enough to Mexico to be interesting.

Better this week, DPs are mixing down in the afternoon, but last week, Central Texas had temps over 100*F and DPs near 80F in the afternoon. Yesterday in Houston, afternoon dews mixed down into the upper 60s. Apples and oranges to New England, my grandmother didn't have AC. Early days in New England, I don't remember real summer heat before July. July 4th, looking at the GFS, around 90*F in New England except right on the beaches.

Just looking back at the 1980 numbers. Dallas is nowhere near 1980 heat. The hottest temp that year was 113*F.

Welcome back. See above post, I don't see why the Cansips active August before El Nino really kicks in is impossible.

I'm trying to talk my wife into a few days in Galveston. Morning low at Galveston was 83. The dewpoints have been bouncing between 79 and 80 since yesterday afternoon. 89F with 79F dewpoint currently. Beach water temps are perfect for hours of surf fishing. Conditions at GTOT2 as of (10:30 am CDT) 1530 GMT on 06/26/2023: Unit of Measure: Imperial Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] GMT+4 Pakistan Standard [GMT+5] GMT+6 Indochina Time [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12] Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 180 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.0 kts Wind Gust (GST): 9.9 kts Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.99 in Air Temperature (ATMP): 87.3 °F Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 5.8 kts Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 5.8 kts

Not El Nino related, but sub-zero dewpoints in June, is that common in ABQ? I had a job interview across the Rio Grande from Taos 23 years ago, in Winter, and I was able to sour grapes my not getting an offer by dry air irritates my skin, and it would have been very dry. Nice seeing the Rio Grande as a mountain stream, not a slow moving opaque green river.

The death ridge isn't going to last for weeks on end 1980 style.

Canadian Climate Model seems to suggest an active August before El Nino shuts down the hurricane season for the US. Shear doesn't look terrible even later in the season (not attached) in the deep tropics. Just one model, but unless naked swirl Bret can do something in a few days, not seeing much after Cindy dies

Naked swirl, but it overperformed for where and when it formed.

Almost 3 hours no power, but then again, Houston has a third world power grid.

Houston beating Dallas to the first 100° day of the year is not something that happens every year. Only 99° on the hours, will have to see if we reached it between hours. 40% chance of your storms arriving after midnight. (Edited- 114° was all time record tying temp in San Angelo)

San Angelo ties an all time record. 114°

If it survives the shear and dry air in the Caribbean, and doesn't recurve, Bret would head W into Central America/Mexico. GFS and Euro ensembles both support that. The NHC forecast of a weakening system headed for its death in Hispaniola seems likely, Bret reopening into a wave and its remnants into Central America also seems reasonable.

First 100*F day of the year in Houston. Down to 98*.

Watch for Central Texas. 100F temps and mid 70s dew points (99F/76F in Austin) below 8C/Kg lapse rates.

88/81F in Galveston. 88F with an onshore wind is impressive. The Gulf being 84F doesn't help much.