Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I assume it is a resolution issue w/ the UKMET, the model can't see winds of 50 knots w/ low 980s pressure. A chart of dropsonde pressure and max wind in the Atlantic Basin (one was in the Gulf) from Brown, Franklin and Landsea 2006 analyzing recon data from 1998 to 2005 (they note the abundance of data from 2005) suggests in the Gulf, 980 mb would have, on average, about 77.7 knots max winds. They found little difference in the correlation between sub-basins in the Atlantic, there was a difference at higher latitudes. There is wider difference from the empirical best fit South of 25N: Vm= 10.205(1014.4-p) 0.5736 to the experimental data when pressures are lower and winds higher there is a greater spread from the recon data to the predicted value. Lower wind/pressure, ie, ~75 knots and 980 mb) would have a P/W relationship pressure with a smaller difference from predicted wind based on pressure and the max/min winds recorded by recon. I do realize at higher latitudes with the wind field increasing and max winds decreasing, 77.7 knots would be too high a value I suspect there aren't that many recon missions with GPS dropsondes above 40 degrees N to develop a relationship. (I couldn't find anything on Google Scholar, but I don't have the experience wording searches as compared to Google But I'd still think the UK winds for the pressures is low. High latitude relation of North of 25N: Vm= 8.636(1015-p) 0.5989 is given, Desmos says that is 73 knots. >40 degrees may not work for a relationship for storms >25N

Just based on the models, the soon to be SEUSA will probably at least get numbered, even if it isn't named. 20% 7 day seems low to me. IMBY, the forecast low down in the BoC is forecast to be more organized, which is reducing model QPF. More rain would delay, and perhaps reduce, the heat range in SETX, which is good, but at a job interview near TX 99 and I-69/US 59, there was standing water on the lawns, so missing out on what had been forecast to be between 1-2 inches per day for 3 days, with 4 inch totals, wouldn't be a bad thing. Standing water is a recipe for mosquitoes. And tadpoles, when I worked in Houston, a puddle had tadpoles in it, which fit in wonderfully in discussing biotic and abiotic parts of an ecosystem which we were learning. Did the tadpoles make it to the toad stage before the puddle dried, I'm not sure. 6Z Euro ensembles weaken the ridge from prior runs, I could see the system which now has a lot of model support, making it as far N as the Rio Bravo del Norte (Spanish for Rio Grande), Dolly in 2008 rained on Houston with a landfall on the border. cc: @Stx_Thunder

The cloud top temperatures with the convection have been as cold as -70 to -75C, and with a highly tropical environment with PWs pushing 2.25+ inches, some of the rainfall rates have been reaching 3 to 4 inches/hour over the last hour. Part of the convective band is offshore, but part of it over the last hour has edged onshore and is impacting the urban corridor from near Bradenton southward down through Sarasota. Recent radar trends suggest some northward advance of the convective band with the low center also showing some evidence of deepening somewhat which suggests the ongoing convective organization, albeit it sheared, over the southeast part of the low center may maintain itself in response to stronger low-level convergence/forcing. This suggests at least in the near-term that extremely heavy rainfall rates within this convective band may continue to edge farther inland and persist, with impacts in particular along the Bradenton to Sarosota urban corridor. Given extremely high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches/hour, some storm totals over the next 2 to 3 hours may locally approach or exceed 6 to 8 inches. Urban flash flooding is considered likely given the set-up, and this situation will need to be closely monitored going into the evening hours. Orrison https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0425&yr=2024

This would suggest if nothing happens in the next week or 10 days, nothing will happen for the next 6 weeks. At least the old climatology, June and July combined produced just more than 1 TC, or a sedate Atlantic for the second half of June and July would be normal.

GFS and ensembles suggest frequent showers this time next week from a weak but broad area of lower pressure deep in the BoC that pumps in high PWs into STX, over 2.5 in Houston, and close to 2.7 inches in Alice, the town I consider the center of South Texas. I had a friend who finished college before me who lived there, I visited several times, had a brief relationship with my friend's GF's sister, and saw a real John Wayne movie style bar fight, started with 2 women, then their boyfriends jumped in, and then the whole bar. I stood with my back to a corner so I wouldn't take a beer bottle to the head from behind. Anyway, I am of the belief that a heat ridge delayed is a heat ridge weakened, delayed and with wet ground, doesn't get as strong due to feedback from hot and dry ground. The daily rainfall in this scenario of 1 to 2 inches per day wouldn't cause flooding. Globals differ in detail, but all show elevated PW

I'm still thinking a closed low develops off SEUSA from the vorticity just W of TPA. It'll be an E weighted system, it may never get beyond a TD or whatever they would call an STD if that abbreviation wasn't more widely know for something else. Might still be Alberto. IMBY, the op GFS and ensembles with a weak and broad low buried in the BoC but swinging deep moisture towards my house, with PW off 2.5" or higher this time next week, I like that. It has been a fairly wet spring, with an unusual amount of severe weather in SETX, but I think damper ground helps limit the feed back of the inevitable Mexican heat Ridge, and helps avoid the repeat of Summer 2023 here.

We can easily handle a foot of rain over 5 days, problem is training on the SW coast and you get to 15 inches in less than a day. We had an event in Fort Lauderdale a year ago, 20+ in 12 hours but very isolated, this setup is very different. Lots of noise in the models, gulf really isnt favorable for at least a week, maybe something finds a small window but its all about the rain for this one and the texas system down the road,maybe. I'm 50/50 on Alberto developing off SEUSA and then OTS. Anything after seems quite uncertain. Two weenie GFS runs in a row, but when has the GFS been right 2 weeks out?

Euro and Canadian ensembles don't support the GFS and ensembles very low NW Caribbean/Gulf pressure at 2 weeks at all, but the entertainment value of what are likely spurious storms is high. Back in the real world the rain from the moisture pooling in the NW Caribbean and Gulf isn't a bad thing, the heaviest rain looks to fall in S. Florida which is in level 2 (severe) drought.

Light and variable winds (except in t-storms near Corpus Christi) and RAP PW of 1.7 inch or higher (AOA 2 inches from Matagorda Bay down to Mexico) is probably supporting the weakening MCS moving offshore near CRP and the sea/bay breeze storms forming just inland further N. Not sure where the front is exactly, but it is probably also helping. There is also a broad mid-level low over NM/TX Panhandle which per 12Z NAM will be ejecting random bits of vorticity. Now that the floods have gone down. the longer the occasional rain kicks in before the summer heat ridge builds in, the better. May keep the ridge a bit weaker with evaporational cooling of damp grounds. May make for an overall milder summer. Euro/American and Canadian ensembles all show the ridge centered out in New Mexico and Arizona in 2 weeks, which may keep us from the two months of 100F or higher temps in STX of 2023.

Levi Cowan's opinions of any E Gulf low... https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1799557965676269666

Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain. Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week. I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say. Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast.

Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in. Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles. Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide..

I suspect it is a product of the heat sink element of the Carnot engine (a simple way to describe the operation of a hurricane or a steam turbine power plant) becoming warmer as well, but Instability/potential intensity is not rising in line with the record warm SSTs. Perhaps an indicator the seasonal numbers won't be as extreme as some suggest. OT- Twitter posts used to actually appear embedded in the AmEx post. Something changes. https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1798745800031523106

The GFS is developing things late next week/following weekend, but the GFS has a bias and develops too many TCs. But some of the 0Z Euro ensembles are starting to show something as well. I think based on SSTs in the neighboring basins, a Pacific system is favored, but not guaranteed.

You don't see an Oklahoma style wedge in Maryland very often. https://x.com/weathertrackus/status/1798504625047560500

Active tornado warnings for radar indicated rotation with the QLCS moving through the Florida parishes (N of New Orleans in E Louisiana. The same QLCS has several severe warnings in LA/MS

Looks like the ridge runners are slowly moving N and E as the Mexican heat ridge builds in. Highest heights look to be in Chihuahua, and all the ensembles at 360 hours show normal or even slightly below normal temps for much of the E half of the state.

Severe T-Storm Watch for the coastal plain/US 59 corridor from just N of CRP into most of the HOU metro. Storms are building and slowly moving NE into the HOU, but none are warned or look particularly strong. There is a lonely but strong cell with radar indicated hail approaching DFW.

There was still random CG and pockets of heavier rain at 10 am. I'm surprised there was even an MCS today with last evenings storms. STX looks undisturbed, and I see an outflow boundary. And low clouds burning off.

SPC going enhanced for Central Texas. 3 kn NAM forecast soundings on I-35 in Williamson County at 6 pm shows 'meh' shear, but 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 1400 DCAPE. SPC also extended SLIGHT to NW Houston suburbs, not mentioning cold pool propagation directly but stating storms in this situation frequently move faster/further than modeled. EDIT TO ADD: this time last week ensembles suggested that spring was over south of US 84.

That borders on the insane. Not the heat, the dewpoint with that kind of heat.

Watched the Ryan Hall YouTube channel, he as Google maps or similar, to the street view, and there are probably few places with a greater concentration of RV parks than around Lake Ray Roberts. For a beginning of summer holiday weekend, the death toll could have been even higher. Two large damaging tornadoes simultaneously, when there were few other storms at all in Texas or Oklahoma, was bad luck. I suspect the fact that the storms were very isolated in favorable instability and shear probably boosted both tornadoes.

Super premature, but the September CanSips 500 mb heights looks downright scary, in a season with possible 10 or more hurricanes, for the Central and Eastern Gulf. Had to check, 42035 at 85F, averaging about 82F diurnally the last couple of days, is warm for so early, but if CanSips is right, MBY is in good shape. Being 60, fat, and on a CPAP, Ike was an adventure, any hurricane now would be an uncomfortable drudgery.

Wouldn't RONI minimize the upcoming cool ENSO because of the warming Atlantic. I know that is the opposite of what it is supposed to do, I can see how it works with a warm ENSO, but not a cool one.

I suspect if we get >20 NS in the Atlantic, Texas probably will get a storm. Beta and Imelda were nothing burgers, but both caused some significant flooding in SETX. I do suspect the ridge will be strong enough to keep any storm forming or entering in the Caribbean down in the Caribbean or Campeche. But, as I said, >20 NS, hard to imagine Texas escapes w/o at least a TS. The 500 mb Euro ensembles were bullish on summer locking in about a week ago...