Ed, snow and hurricane fan

I don't how to do an analog off a model run of a storm that hadn't developed yet. I told you I'm not a met, just a hobbyist. There are some analog guys for an actual storm in an actual position, but I'm not an expert on that, either.

Euro and most of the ECENS are developing the wave now near 40*. Not looking as 'fishy', many ensemble members get it into the Caribbean before a recurve. Most members that cross the G. Antilles aren't strong, but the rain and topography would cause issues. EDIT TO ADD: Hours 156 to 210. A week away, but a strong signal. Op GFS slower development gets it into the Gulf. Not as much ensemble support, but Im starting to suspect the combination to the constant refinement of the model and lower resolution may contribute to GEFS not supporting the op when they would if run at higher resolution.

Convection is blowing up over land. If that somehow stays there more than a few hours, that will be a problem. WPC analyzed cold front may be too far inland, but I'd guess prefrontal trough. I can't really see it in the SPC RAP analysis.

I have a question, regarding the GFS seeing TC genesis before most of its ensemble members do, as compared to the ECENS- is resolution an issue for the GEFS? Do you know if anyone has access to the control run? When the op and the ensemble are run at different resolutions, does that cause these issues. Can you see the GFS ensemble control member?

8 days out, the GFS has a very Debby-esque tropical wave entangled with the Greater Antilles from the wave EPS have been liking. Intensity and when it might recurve would be very much deterimed by whether it misses the islands to the N anf fishes or stays S of the G. Antilles and is more than a TD by the time it reaches the Gulf.

Recon has impressive winds for such a trainwreck of a system. Facepalm for people apparently disappointed that Debby won't make a run at Cat 3 and drop 10 feet of rain in 2 days.

Lumberton is prone to severe flooding, I hope that projection is wrong.

Way to early to know. You know I'm a math teacher, not a meteorologist.

Who knows? That solution is well supported by the EPS, weakly supported by the GEFS.

I generally trust the ECENS most for spotting future TS without to many false alarms. The 10/30 lemon was a bust, but the ECENS were days ahead of the other models spotting Beryl. Euro ensembles look to have a few more perturbations at 6Z than 0Z. *Almost* mp ,ode; support for the E Caribbean lemon, although one GEFS member does bring a storm from the far S Caribbean at a time consistent with the lemon and brings a strong TS/low end TS to Houston. The GEFS and the GFS false alarm all the time systems that develop in the SW Caribbean from almost undistinguishable vorts travelling W through N South America. It also false alarms TCs when the monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean. But I'd bet money on a TC around mid-month. If it isn't OTS, it could be impactful. Betting on no or only 1 storm(s) in the second half of August with a near record warm MDR iand a near neutral ENSO seems like a losing bet.

Morning WPC 5 day QPF doesn't suggest much orographic enhancement, but the E halves of the Carolinas are >10 inches with some >15 inch areas. I assume that is a computer created consensus of models, with forecasters adjusting which models have more and less, or no weight. Consensus seems the way to go.

ECENS or EPS means the 50 member ECMWF ensemble. Each one with a minor computer generated adjustment to the initial conditions the Op Euro is run from. A wide variety of outcomes suggests that the initial conditions (which are never perfect, measurement area and data the initialization program produces has interpolated conditions between data points. The ECENS liked, than lost 9as did the US GFS operational and the Canadian Global operational model did. Something changed to make the majority of the ECENS forecast a more S'ly track with more hostile conditions. The wave in the EATL may do as the E. Caribbean lemon do, show more and more support then lose it as newer data comes in every 6 hours, or show more and more ensemble members show development and other modelling also sees a system ala Beryl. New op GFS shows no development in the E Caribbean, few models or their ensembles show anything, it has become extremely unlikely anything forms. GFS has the surrounding dry air keeping the E Atlantic wave from developing in the Caribbean. If the GFS is correct that dry air will hinder development but not prevent it, it has a better chance to not recurve before land impacts.

The center is disrupted enough it won't become a hurricane again over water, but if it gets far enough out, I could see near hurricane pressure but without the hurricane force winds because it won't have enough time.

Debby is indeed hollowed out, but the center is still there and close enough to the coast it shouldn't weaken much over land. [img][/img]

CHB- the ensembles seem to think so. Slower development than what the ECENS are suggesting increases the chance it doesn't go OTS.